Dallas Stars

Central Division, Western Conference · 20 reports in the 2024-25 edition.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2023-24 · 82 games · 242 for, 193 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 53.1% 5th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 54.6% 3rd of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 8.60 3rd of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.01 12th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +10.9 6th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -10.3 23rd of 32

Dallas Stars scored 10.9 more goals than their chances were worth but got 10.3 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — the two pull against each other, and both regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 27.8; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 23.5%; of skater points
From under 26: 43.7%; of skater points
Homegrown: 59.2%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 81.4%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

One of two clubs in the league ranked top five at both creating and suppressing chances — and it did it with the 23rd-best goaltending in hockey and nobody above eighty points.

Who this names 18 of 20 on the roster · 91% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Nils Lundkvist, Sam Steel.

What the Quant Says

113 points, 52-21-9, and second in the league by a single point.

The club took 53.1 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 5th, and 54.6 per cent of the expected goals, 3rd. It ranked 4th in the league at creating chances at even strength and 4th at suppressing them — and only Carolina was also top five at both. That is the best-constructed hockey club in this edition and the standings agree with it.

The goaltending came in 10.3 goals worse than the chances faced, 23rd. A club with the fourth-best suppression in hockey conceded 234 goals anyway, which is 8th, and a crease at its own goaltenders' career rates would have made it first.

There is no star. Jason Robertson led the returning roster with 80 points. Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene and Roope Hintz all had 65. Jamie Benn had 60 at 35, Miro Heiskanen 54, Mason Marchment 53, Tyler Seguin 52 and Thomas Harley 47. Nine players between 47 and 80, and nobody above it — the flattest scoring distribution of any hundred-point club in this edition.

What is remarkable is how much of it is young and how much of it Dallas drafted. Wyatt Johnston is 21 and has 56 goals in 164 career games. Thomas Harley is 23 and had 47 points and a plus-28 in his first full season. Logan Stankoven is 21, 5-8 and 165 pounds, and took 59.9 per cent of the expected goals in 24 games — the 99th percentile. Miro Heiskanen is 25 and Jason Robertson 25. All five were drafted here.

The old part is very old and it is still producing. Jamie Benn is 35 with 1,112 games and 60 points. Matt Duchene is 33 with 1,056 games and 65. Tyler Seguin is 32 with 969 games and 52. Evgenii Dadonov and Brendan Smith are 35.

Joe Pavelski is gone, and so are Radek Faksa to St Louis, Craig Smith to Chicago, Ryan Suter to St Louis, Jani Hakanpaa to Toronto and Scott Wedgewood to Nashville. Mathew Dumba came from Tampa Bay, Ilya Lyubushkin from Toronto, Brendan Smith from New Jersey and Casey DeSmith from Vancouver. Four defencemen and a goaltender: the club decided its problem was in its own end, having finished fourth in the league at suppressing chances.

It was not. The problem was in the crease and the club signed an .8946 to sit behind it.

What the Scout Says

A 5-8, 165-pound centre in the 99th percentile, a 6-6 goaltender, and two men with more than seven hundred career penalty minutes.

Logan Stankoven is 5-8 and 165 pounds — tied for the lightest forward in this edition and the shorter of the two — and he took 59.9 per cent of the expected goals in his first 24 games. Colin Blackwell is 5-8 and 181.

Jake Oettinger is 6-6 and 225, one of three goaltenders in this edition at 6-6 or taller.

Brendan Smith has 754 penalty minutes in 694 games and Jamie Benn 809 in 1,112. Mathew Dumba adds 487 in 674. Mason Marchment is 6-5 and 212 — the tallest forward on the roster — and Esa Lindell, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Jamie Benn are all 6-3.

This is a large, heavy, extremely well-organised hockey club that also employs the smallest forward in the book.

Who this names 9 of 11 forwards · 85% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Colin Blackwell, Sam Steel.

What the Quant Says

298 goals, third in the league, on the 4th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.783 expected goals per 60.

At five-on-five the club scored 192 goals against an expectation of 181.1, a finishing surplus of 10.9 and sixth in the league. The goals are earned rather than borrowed, which is not true of most clubs that score three hundred.

Jason Robertson had 80 points with 29 goals at 12.55 per cent. Wyatt Johnston had 65 at 21, Matt Duchene 65 at 33 and Roope Hintz 65 with 30 goals at 16.48 per cent. Jamie Benn had 60 at 35, Miro Heiskanen 54 from the blue line, Mason Marchment 53, Tyler Seguin 52 and Thomas Harley 47 at 22.

Nine players on this roster reached 47 points and not one of them reached 81. No club in this edition spreads its scoring like that.

Logan Stankoven had 14 points in 24 games at 21, and Evgenii Dadonov converted 17.91 per cent.

What the Scout Says

Nine men who score and no one who carries it, arranged around the best shot-quality profile in the league.

Jason Robertson shoots from a median of 31 feet with 33 per cent from inside 20 and converted 12.55 per cent of 231 shots — a career 14.86 across 895. He handles the puck in traffic and protects it at 6-3, and 181 assists in 292 career games is a first-line playmaking rate on top of 133 goals.

Roope Hintz converted 16.48 per cent and has a career 16.52 across 890 shots, which is one of the best sustained finishing rates in this edition. He skates as well as any centre of his size in the league at 6-3 and 217, and the entries are made at speed rather than by passing.

Wyatt Johnston takes 49 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 21 and scored 32 at 21. Jamie Benn takes 50 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 20 and scored 21 at 35. Those two shot profiles are almost identical and fourteen years apart.

Matt Duchene converted 14.53 per cent and has 341 goals in 1,056 games. Tyler Seguin converted 16.23 per cent on 154 shots and has 351 goals in 969. Mason Marchment is 6-5 and undrafted and had 53 points.

Who this names 6 of 7 defencemen · 90% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Nils Lundkvist.

What the Quant Says

234 goals against, 8th in the league, on the 4th-best chance suppression at even strength — 2.313 expected goals against per 60.

Dallas and Carolina are the only two clubs in the league ranked in the top five at both creating and suppressing chances at even strength. Everything else in this chapter follows from that sentence.

At five-on-five the club conceded 161 goals against an expectation of 150.7.

Miro Heiskanen played 24:32 a night at 57.5 per cent of the chances — the 96th percentile — with 45 assists. Thomas Harley had 47 points at 22 and finished plus-28 at 54.7 per cent. Esa Lindell played all 82 games at 20:28 and finished plus-17 with 12 penalty minutes.

The summer bought weight. Mathew Dumba arrives from Tampa Bay with 487 penalty minutes in 674 games, Ilya Lyubushkin from Toronto with no goals in 74 games, and Brendan Smith from New Jersey with 754 penalty minutes in 694. Ryan Suter and Jani Hakanpaa are gone.

What the Scout Says

The fourth-best chance suppression in the league, run by a 25-year-old and a 23-year-old.

Miro Heiskanen skates the puck out of trouble rather than passing it out, and at 24:32 a night against the other club's best line he took 57.5 per cent of the chances — the 96th percentile. He walks the line and holds it with 205 assists in 425 games. He is 6-2 and 197 and defends with position and stick; he does not punish anybody and does not need to.

Thomas Harley had 47 points and a plus-28 at 22 in his first full season, at 21:01 a night and 54.7 per cent of the chances. He carries the puck out under pressure and at 6-3 and 214 he is harder to strip than Heiskanen.

Esa Lindell defends the rush with reach at 6-3 and played all 82 games at 20:28 with 12 penalty minutes and a plus-17. There is no offence — 5 goals and 49 in 604 career games — and there is no mistake either.

Mathew Dumba arrives with 487 penalty minutes in 674 games and a shot from the point, having taken 48.8 per cent of the chances in Tampa Bay. Ilya Lyubushkin is undrafted, took 57 penalty minutes in 74 games and scored no goals at all — he clears the front of his own net and does nothing else. Brendan Smith is 35 with 754 penalty minutes in 694 games and will fight anybody.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 10.3 goals worse than the chances faced, 23rd in the league, behind the 4th-best chance suppression in hockey. That is the one weak page in the whole chapter, and the structure in front of it is why 234 goals still went in rather than 260.

Jake Oettinger went 35-14-4 with a .9051, a 2.72 average and 3 shutouts in 54 games, facing 1,476 shots. He carries a career .9129 across 193 games and a record of 113-48-23, so a .9051 is a step down from his own standard rather than a description of him.

Casey DeSmith went 12-9-6 with an .8946 and 1 shutout in 29 games, facing 759 shots, and arrives to replace Scott Wedgewood. His career .9093 across 163 games is considerably better than the season he has just had.

Two goaltenders whose careers say .9129 and .9093 produced a .9051 and an .8946 in the same year. The club is entitled to assume that is variance. It is also the difference between second in the league and first.

What the Scout Says

A 6-6 goaltender with a career .9129 who posted a .9051, and a backup with a career .9093 who posted an .8946.

Jake Oettinger is 6-6 and 225 and takes away the top of the net by standing up rather than by reaching. At that size a clean shot from distance has almost nothing to aim at, and the game is built around making the shooter take that shot rather than a better one.

The lateral recovery is the question — the second play across the crease is slower than it is for a smaller goaltender, and a club that moves the puck east-west will find it. The rebound control is good, and behind the fourth-best chance suppression in hockey he is very rarely asked to make two.

A career .9129 across 193 games and a 113-48-23 record at 25 is the profile of a starter for the next decade. The .9051 is the first season that has not gone forward.

Casey DeSmith is 6-0 and 188, undrafted, and plays deep and square rather than aggressively. He has a career .9093 across 163 games and 70 wins, and an .8946 in Vancouver last season. The rebound control is the weakness, and on a club with this structure it will matter less than it did.

Who this names 8 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

5th in the league at 8.232 expected goals per 60, over 4:40 a night — the sixth-fewest power-play time in hockey. Very good at it, and given less of it than almost anybody.

Jason Robertson scored 9 power-play goals, Roope Hintz 8, Jamie Benn 7, Matt Duchene 6 and Mason Marchment 6. Tyler Seguin and Wyatt Johnston scored 3 each and Miro Heiskanen 2.

The unit is built on shot quality rather than on a single shooter. Jamie Benn shoots from a median of 20 feet with 50 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 and has 108 career power-play goals — at 35 he is still the man in front of the goaltender. Wyatt Johnston takes 49 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 21 and is the second one.

Miro Heiskanen walks the line and holds it with 205 career assists, and Jason Robertson shoots from a median of 31 feet off the far side.

Five different men with six or more power-play goals is the same distribution as everything else here.

What the Scout Says

Fifth in the league on the sixth-fewest power-play time in hockey, and five men with six or more goals.

Jamie Benn shoots from a median of 20 feet with 50 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 and has 108 career power-play goals. At 35 he stands in front of the goaltender and takes what a 35-year-old takes, and he scored 7 doing it.

Wyatt Johnston takes 49 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 21 and is the second man in the paint at 21 years old. Roope Hintz scored 8 and takes 44 per cent from inside 20.

Jason Robertson scored 9 from the far side at a median of 31 feet — the shot the unit is arranged around. Matt Duchene and Mason Marchment scored 6 each.

Miro Heiskanen walks the line and holds it, and 205 career assists is why the puck reaches all of them.

Who this names 10 men details

What the Quant Says

11th in the league at 6.692 expected goals against per 60, over 4:54 a game. Above average, on a club whose even-strength suppression is fourth.

Wyatt Johnston scored 3 shorthanded goals at 21 and Roope Hintz 3, which is six from two men who are also on the first power-play unit. Sam Steel scored 2, Jamie Benn 1 and Thomas Harley 1.

Esa Lindell defends the rush with reach at 6-3 and took 12 penalty minutes in all 82 games — one of the lowest rates of any defenceman in this edition who played a full season. Miro Heiskanen takes the first shift.

2023-24 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.