Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

95

Matt Duchene

Dallas Stars Center

Bought out at 32, one year after a 43-goal season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10COL81243155+116101218013.317:44
2010-11COL80274067-83330220213.418:57
2011-12COL58141428-11850213210.616:17
2012-13COL47172643-121220313212.920:55
2013-14COL71234770+81950621710.618:30
2014-15COL82213455+31620420710.118:34
2015-16COL76302959-82480620015.018:35
2016-17COL77182341-341231316011.318:18
2017-18COL/OTT82273259-221890319014.218:20
2018-19OTT/CBJ73313970-3860117218.018:50
2019-20NSH66132942-4245011369.616:53
2020-21NSH346713-126100738.215:50
2021-22NSH78434386+638160622818.919:01
2022-23NSH71223456+43250316813.118:19
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—976316428744-9226680242239713.218:18

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

22 goals and 34 assists in 71 games for Nashville, plus-4, 18:19 a night, 168 shots at 13.1 per cent.

The year before he scored 43 goals and 86 points. The year before that, 13 points in 34 games. There is no player in this book whose season-to-season output moves more.

48.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 39th percentile, with his ice at 51-42 against an expectation of 44.38-47.25. Seven better than the chances at the offensive end and five better at the defensive one — good results out of average minutes.

Fourteen seasons, 976 games, 744 points.

The Finesse Game

168 shots at a median of 25 feet, 34 per cent from inside twenty and 13 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 152 shots, 25 goals, 16.45 per cent. Beyond forty: 18 shots, none.

That close-range rate is very good and it is the reason the 43-goal season happened: when the shots go in he takes the same shots, and the difference between 43 and 22 is almost entirely conversion.

95.5 mph at the 81st percentile — a hard shot, and the one part of his game that has never varied.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 211, and heavy for the height. 22.3 mph at the 52nd percentile, 1.0 bursts a game at the 55th, 2.68 miles a game at the 60th — average in every direction at 32, which for a player whose game was built on speed is the number to watch.

32 penalty minutes in 71 games. He is not physical and the defensive record has been the criticism for fifteen years; the 39th-percentile share last season is consistent with it.

He has been a minus player in eight of fourteen seasons.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2009, four organisations, and one of the more argued-about careers of his generation.

Nashville bought out the remainder of his contract in June, which is the sort of thing that happens to a 32-year-old the year after a 56-point season and two years after an 86-point one. Dallas signed him for one year at a fraction of it.

On a club with Hintz, Robertson and Pavelski he does not need to be the player he was in 2021-22. He needs to be the one from last season, which the record says he still is.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He has been a minus player in eight of fourteen seasons.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,008 minutes

Expected goals
48.4%
39th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.9%
44th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 42 against. Expected: 44.4 and 47.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
39th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 71 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
59th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.99 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.68 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.5 mph
94th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with NSH · 1008 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NSH took 47.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.4% — 1.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,008 minutes at five-on-five — 58th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Roman Josi51.1%46.3%49.0%
Filip Forsberg56.1%44.1%44.9%
Mikael Granlund42.1%51.1%50.1%

51.1% together, 46.3% for him apart and 49.0% for Josi apart. He was worse away from Josi, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Josi did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

241 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.