Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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15

Craig Smith

Dallas Stars Center

Two hundred career goals, and nine in his thirty-third year.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12NSH72142236-9306011728.114:11
2012-13NSH444812-1120200834.813:51
2013-14NSH79242852+162270421511.216:24
2014-15NSH82232144+11446042529.115:44
2015-16NSH82211637+44020619910.515:11
2016-17NSH78121729+7302011557.713:49
2017-18NSH79252651+202490222910.915:23
2018-19NSH76211738+112040220510.215:08
2019-20NSH69181331+18344021849.813:25
2020-21BOS54131932+21184041329.814:53
2021-22BOS74162036+2280011878.614:25
2022-23BOS/WSH649716+5180021048.611:00
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—853200214414+953284602921179.414:33

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 7 assists in 64 games across Boston and Washington, plus-5, 11:00 a night, 104 shots at 8.7 per cent.

16 points is the lowest full-season total of his twelve years and 11:00 a night is the least ice time he has ever had.

48.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 676 minutes, the 39th percentile, with his ice at 29-22 against an expectation of 28.69-30.41. Exactly as expected at the offensive end and eight better at the defensive one.

Twelve seasons, 853 games, 200 goals.

The Finesse Game

104 shots at a median of 28 feet, 33 per cent from inside twenty and 27 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 75 shots, nine goals, 12.00 per cent. Beyond forty: 29 shots, none.

The close-range rate is fine. The volume is the problem: 104 shots is barely half what he took in his 25-goal seasons, and at eleven minutes a night there is nowhere for it to come from.

94.8 mph at the 77th percentile — the shot is still hard, and it is the reason he keeps being signed.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 203. 22.8 mph at the 76th percentile, 0.9 bursts a game at the 51st, and 1.80 miles a game at the 7th percentile — the lowest mileage figure on this roster and a direct consequence of eleven-minute nights.

18 penalty minutes in 64 games. He plays a straightforward forechecking game and does not initiate much.

At 33 the top speed is still above average, which is the encouraging half of an otherwise discouraging report.

The Intangibles

98th overall in 2009, out of Wisconsin, nine seasons in Nashville and two full Boston years that produced 68 points.

He reached 200 career goals last season, which for a fourth-round pick is a considerable career, and he did it while being scratched and then traded.

Dallas signed him for one year as a fourth-line winger. The measurement says the tools are intact; the ice time says nobody believes they will produce.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 676 minutes

Expected goals
48.5%
39th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.8%
51st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 29 for, 22 against. Expected: 28.7 and 30.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
12th
Numbers
39th

The numbers rank him 27 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 64 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
81st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.94 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.80 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.8 mph
91st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with BOS · 414 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
WSH took 49.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.5% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
676 minutes at five-on-five — 29th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nicklas Backstrom46.3%49.2%49.9%
Hampus Lindholm57.9%45.9%55.8%
Charlie Coyle50.1%48.1%50.4%

46.3% together, 49.2% for him apart and 49.9% for Backstrom apart. Backstrom was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

132 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 27% from beyond forty.