Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

14

Jamie Benn

Dallas Stars Left Wing

Seventy-eight points off the 5th-percentile top speed — one of the slowest forwards in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10DAL82221941-14520318212.114:42
2010-11DAL69223456-55264317712.418:01
2011-12DAL71263763+155521720312.818:04
2012-13DAL41122133-124030311010.919:55
2013-14DAL81344579+216451327912.219:09
2014-15DAL82355287+164102625313.819:57
2015-16DAL82414889+764172524716.620:01
2016-17DAL77264369-966121420112.919:22
2017-18DAL82364379+205491724114.919:49
2018-19DAL78272653+145680218914.318:14
2019-20DAL69192039-45380416311.716:26
2020-21DAL52112435+13333021248.917:47
2021-22DAL82182846-13883121829.916:45
2022-23DAL82334578+2334132419017.415:47
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—1030362485847+707681011555274113.218:06

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

33 goals and 45 assists in all 82 games, plus-23, 15:47 a night, 190 shots at 17.4 per cent.

78 points at 33, after 46 points and minus-13 the year before. The plus-minus moved 36 and the points moved 32.

49.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 49th percentile — exactly average — and yet his ice went 59-34 against an expectation of 40.66-41.12. Eighteen goals better than the chances at the offensive end and seven better at the defensive one, which is a very large finishing surplus and the single most likely thing on this page not to repeat.

Fourteen seasons, 1,030 games, 847 points, all in Dallas.

The Finesse Game

190 shots at a median of 20 feet, 50 per cent from inside twenty.

Inside forty: 162 shots, 33 goals, 20.37 per cent. Beyond forty: 15 shots, none.

20 tip-ins and four deflections, and 18 backhands — an unusually high count and the signature of a player who works below the goal line and around the crease rather than off the rush.

85.9 mph at the 15th percentile. The shot is soft and it does not matter at twenty feet.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 210. 21.1 mph is the 5th percentile — the eighth-slowest top speed of any forward in the league — with 0.3 bursts over twenty a game at the 13th.

He scored 33 goals. That is the whole point of recording the number: on this measurement he is one of the slowest forwards in the National Hockey League, and he was a point-a-game player last season.

2.57 miles a game at the 48th percentile. He is not covering unusual ground either.

34 penalty minutes in 82 games is the lowest figure of any full season he has played in fourteen years. He has 700-plus in his career and the edge has always been part of the game; last season he took a third of what he took in 2021-22.

The Intangibles

129th overall in 2007 — a fifth-round pick — an Art Ross in 2015, and the captaincy since 2013.

He played 82 games at 33 and led a Conference Final club in points. The measured skating says he should not be able to do this, and it is the clearest single case in these five clubs of the tracking feed describing a player it cannot explain.

What it can see is where he shoots from, and everything he scores comes from twenty feet.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “the signature of a player who works below the goal line and around the crease rather than off the rush”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “an Art Ross in 2015, and the captaincy since 2013”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “20 tip-ins and four deflections, and 18 backhands”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 929 minutes

Expected goals
49.7%
50th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.4%
41st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 34 against. Expected: 40.7 and 41.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
66th
Numbers
50th

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
13th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.32 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.57 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.9 mph
41st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 929 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
DAL took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.7% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 929 minutes at five-on-five — 50th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Wyatt Johnston49.7%49.6%50.3%
Miro Heiskanen52.3%47.9%53.8%
Ty Dellandrea50.1%49.5%47.8%

49.7% together, 49.6% for him apart and 50.3% for Johnston apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

237 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.