This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Tyler Seguin

Fifty points at 31 — the fifth straight season below the standard he set for a decade.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2010-11	BOS	74	11	11	22	-4	18	1	0	0	131	8.4	12:13
2011-12	BOS	81	29	38	67	+34	30	5	0	7	242	12.0	16:56
2012-13	BOS	48	16	16	32	+23	16	4	0	2	161	9.9	17:01
2013-14	DAL	80	37	47	84	+16	18	11	0	8	294	12.6	19:21
2014-15	DAL	71	37	40	77	-1	22	13	0	5	280	13.2	19:33
2015-16	DAL	72	33	40	73	+2	16	7	0	6	278	11.9	19:27
2016-17	DAL	82	26	46	72	-15	22	11	0	4	301	8.6	18:28
2017-18	DAL	82	40	38	78	+12	43	14	1	6	335	11.9	20:55
2018-19	DAL	82	33	47	80	+17	18	9	0	8	334	9.9	20:45
2019-20	DAL	69	17	33	50	-2	22	3	0	6	245	6.9	19:09
2020-21	DAL	3	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	8	25.0	17:04
2021-22	DAL	81	24	25	49	-21	30	3	0	2	218	11.0	17:49
2022-23	DAL	76	21	29	50	+3	24	7	1	3	189	11.1	16:37
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	901	326	410	736	+64	279	88	2	57	3016	10.8	18:15

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

21 goals and 29 assists in 76 games, plus-3, 16:37 a night, 189 shots at 11.1 per cent.

53.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 76th percentile, with his ice at 41-41 against an expectation of 43.97-38.66. Three short at the offensive end, two long at the other.

Thirteen seasons, 901 games, 736 points. He scored 70 or more points in six straight years to 2018-19 and has not reached 55 since.

The Finesse Game

189 shots at a median of 24 feet, 38 per cent from inside twenty and 13 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 157 shots, twenty goals, 12.74 per cent. Beyond forty: 29 shots, none.

12.7 per cent from close range is a modest figure for a player who converted at 13 and 14 per cent through his prime, and 189 shots is the fewest of any full season he has played since arriving in Dallas — 335 and 334 in 2017-18 and 2018-19.

94.1 mph at the 72nd percentile. The shot is still there and the volume is not.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 205. 21.9 mph at the 28th percentile, 0.7 bursts a game at the 39th, 2.70 miles a game at the 61st — below average for speed, ordinary for distance.

He had hip surgery in 2020 and played three games that season. The skating measurements are consistent with a player who did not get all of it back.

24 penalty minutes in 76 games. He does not play a physical game and never has.

The Intangibles

Second overall in 2010, a Cup at 19 in Boston, and a trade to Dallas that produced six straight seasons at a point a game.

He is 31, on a long contract, and playing 16:37 on the third line of a Conference Final club. That is not a failure and it is a long way from what he was.

The 50 points matches the highest of his last four seasons, which is either a recovery or the new level, and one more year will settle it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

playmakerpresent and ordinary· passes up the shot a scorer takes
“The shot is still there and the volume is not.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 990 minutes

Expected goals: 53.2%; 76th pct
Shot attempts: 53.1%; 80th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 41 against. Expected: 44.0 and 38.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

38th

Numbers

76th

The numbers rank him 38 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 76 games

Top speed: 21.9 mph; 38th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 0.72 a game
Distance: 2.70 miles a game
Hardest shot: 94.1 mph; 88th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 990 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: DAL took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.2% — 1.2 above the club he did it on.
The role: Third line, 990 minutes at five-on-five — 57th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Mason Marchment	50.5%	57.0%	48.3%
Ryan Suter	54.9%	52.2%	52.1%
Miro Heiskanen	56.7%	51.0%	52.3%

50.5% together, 57.0% for him apart and 48.3% for Marchment apart. He was better away from Marchment, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Marchment.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

252 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.