This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Jason Robertson
Dallas Stars Left Wing
Forty-six goals, 109 points, and seven of them from beyond forty feet at double the rate a forward manages there.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | DAL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 12:19 |
| 2020-21 | DAL | 51 | 17 | 28 | 45 | +13 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 127 | 13.4 | 16:53 |
| 2021-22 | DAL | 74 | 41 | 38 | 79 | +16 | 22 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 220 | 18.6 | 18:07 |
| 2022-23 | DAL | 82 | 46 | 63 | 109 | +37 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 313 | 14.7 | 18:50 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 210 | 104 | 130 | 234 | +66 | 58 | 27 | 0 | 21 | 664 | 15.7 | 18:01 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
46 goals and 63 assists in all 82 games — 109 points, sixth in the league — plus-37, 18:50 a night, 313 shots at 14.7 per cent.
59.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 97th percentile, with his ice at 71-38 against an expectation of 63.41-43.58: eight better than the chances at the offensive end and five better at the defensive one.
That is a first-line winger whose possession, whose chances and whose goals all agree, at 23. Four seasons, 210 games, 104 goals.
The Finesse Game
313 shots at a median of 30 feet, 30 per cent from inside twenty and 28 per cent from beyond forty — a wide distribution for a scorer, and both halves of it work.
Inside forty: 214 shots on goal, 38 goals, 17.76 per cent. Beyond forty: 84 shots, seven goals, 8.33 per cent — more than double the league rate of 4.16 per cent for a forward.
Eighty-four long shots is a lot of volume from range for a winger, and the yield is the thing: most forwards who shoot from out there get nothing, and this book has documented several of them in these very chapters. He is the other case.
91.4 mph at the 54th percentile. The shot is ordinary and the release and the placement are not.
The Physical Game
6-3 and 204, and the skating is the one soft number: 21.6 mph at the 18th percentile with 0.3 bursts over twenty a game at the 14th.
He covers 2.94 miles a game at the 77th percentile, so the volume of work is there. What is not there is any top-end speed at all, and he scored 46 goals anyway.
That is worth stating plainly, because it is the kind of thing this book exists to record: one of the ten best scorers in the league last season is in the bottom fifth of it for measured skating speed.
20 penalty minutes in 82 games. He is big and does not use it.
The Intangibles
39th overall in 2017, a second-round pick out of Kingston, and 104 goals in his first four seasons.
His father is American, his mother Filipino, and he was born in California and raised in Michigan — one of the more unusual routes to a 100-point season in this book.
He is 24, has scored 41 and 46 in consecutive years, and the possession numbers say none of it is borrowed.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
28.2% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 90th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
- durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
- drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
59.3% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 48.5% for his club in the minutes he sat: +10.8, 100th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
- workhorse· carries the load at even strength
14:37 a game at five-on-five, 90th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it
“The shot is ordinary and the release and the placement are not.”
“Inside forty: 214 shots on goal, 38 goals, 17.76 per cent.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,199 minutes
- Expected goals
- 59.3%
- 97th pct
- Shot attempts
- 56.6%
- 94th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 71 for, 38 against. Expected: 63.4 and 43.6.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games
- Top speed
- 21.6 mph
- 28th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.33 a game
- Distance
- 2.94 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 91.4 mph
- 75th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 1199 minutes at five-on-five
- Joe Pavelski83%
- Roope Hintz69%
- Tyler Seguin15%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- DAL took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.3% — 7.3 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,199 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Pavelski | 59.2% | 59.7% | 43.7% |
| Roope Hintz | 59.5% | 58.8% | 49.7% |
| Miro Heiskanen | 60.2% | 58.5% | 49.3% |
59.2% together, 59.7% for him apart and 43.7% for Pavelski apart. Pavelski was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Pavelski than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
400 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 50 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 30% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.