Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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76

Lukas Reichel

Chicago Blackhawks Left Wing

Twenty-three games, six goals from inside twenty feet, and an 82.0 mph shot at the 4th percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22CHI11011-80000150.013:12
2022-23CHI237815-860004216.716:22
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—347916-1660005712.315:21

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 8 assists in 23 games — 15 points at 16:22 a night, minus-8, on 42 shots at 16.67 per cent.

44.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 305 minutes, the 19th percentile. His ice went 14-16 against an expectation of 11.48-14.12.

He is 21 and this was his first real look. Fifteen points in 23 games is a good rate and 23 games is not a season.

The Finesse Game

42 attempts at a median of 26 feet, 42 per cent from inside twenty and 6 per cent from beyond forty, which is the lowest long-range share on the club. Six goals on sixteen shots from inside twenty feet.

Sixteen shots is nothing and the 37.5 per cent he converted them at is noise. What is not noise is that a 21-year-old arrived in the NHL and immediately stopped shooting from the perimeter, which is the habit most young forwards take three seasons to lose.

His shot is 82.0 mph, the 4th percentile in the league, and that is the real concern in the file. He is 6-0 and 170 pounds, and a shot that slow will be a problem against goaltenders who have seen him more than once.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 170 pounds, which is light enough to be the first thing any scout says about him.

2.9 bursts over 20 mph a game at the 96th percentile and a top speed of 22.7 at the 74th. He accelerates well — the feed measures that directly and it is a genuine strength — and 2.82 miles a game at the 69th says he keeps going.

What none of that tells you is whether he can hold the puck against men forty pounds heavier, and 23 games is not enough to have watched it either.

The Intangibles

Seventeenth overall in 2020, out of Germany, and the best forward prospect Chicago had before the lottery changed everything.

He is 21 with 34 NHL games. The club is about to be built around someone else, and the useful question about Reichel is whether he becomes the winger on that line or the player who gets moved to fill it out.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 305 minutes

Expected goals
44.8%
19th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
40.1%
2nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 14 for, 16 against. Expected: 11.5 and 14.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
19th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 23 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
79th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.87 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.82 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
82.0 mph
24th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 305 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
CHI took 42.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.8% — 2.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
305 minutes at five-on-five — 7th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Philipp Kurashev44.3%45.4%41.1%
Seth Jones55.4%35.0%45.6%
Caleb Jones56.5%38.9%44.3%

44.3% together, 45.4% for him apart and 41.1% for Kurashev apart. Kurashev was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Kurashev than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

52 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.