Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

17

Tyson Jost

Carolina Hurricanes Center

Tenth overall in 2016, four hundred and fifty-six games, and the fourth percentile of chances.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17COL6101-50000911.115:41
2017-18COL65121022-102650111310.614:38
2018-19COL70111526-2144031149.713:00
2019-20COL6781523+11221001157.012:46
2020-21COL5471017+1424001927.614:07
2021-22COL/MIN8081220+234002978.312:50
2022-23MIN/BUF7171825-1334000987.113:15
2023-24BUF43336-1110000486.310:36
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—4565783140-1416410076868.313:09

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 3 assists in 43 games for Buffalo — 6 points at 10:36 a night, minus-11, on 48 shots at 6.25 per cent, and 10 penalty minutes.

38.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 426 minutes, the 3rd percentile — the worst mark of any player on this roster. His ice went 12-22 against an expectation of 12.92-20.47, so the goals were a great deal kinder than the chances were.

The Finesse Game

48 attempts at a median of 29 feet, with 32 per cent from inside 20 and 22 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 6.25 per cent. Fifty-seven goals in 456 career games.

3 assists in 43 games, and 140 points in 456 games across eight seasons. He does not create at NHL level, and the offensive career that a tenth-overall pick implies has not happened at any point.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 187. He forechecks honestly without punishing anybody and he does not win pucks on the wall against size.

10 penalty minutes in 43 games and 164 in 456 for his career is a low rate. He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.

The Intangibles

Tenth overall in 2016 by Colorado, out of Penticton, and 456 NHL games and 140 points at 26 across four clubs.

He was signed here in the summer. A tenth-overall pick with 456 NHL games and 140 points is one of the clearest cautionary lines in this edition, and this club is the fourth to try him — on the theory, which is not a bad one, that its system has made more out of less.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**He does not create at NHL level**, and the offensive career that a tenth-overall pick implies has not happened at any point.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He forechecks honestly without punishing anybody and he does not win pucks on the wall against size.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He forechecks honestly without punishing anybody and he does not win pucks on the wall against size.”

  • agitatorhe lacks it· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 426 minutes

Expected goals
38.7%
3rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.8%
12th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 12 for, 22 against. Expected: 12.9 and 20.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
11th
Numbers
3rd

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 43 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
16th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.37 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.77 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.0 mph
33rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with BUF · 426 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
BUF took 48.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 38.7% — 10.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
426 minutes at five-on-five — 13th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Victor Olofsson35.0%41.6%49.1%
Rasmus Dahlin47.7%33.4%51.7%
Connor Clifton35.2%40.3%48.2%

35.0% together, 41.6% for him apart and 49.1% for Olofsson apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

65 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 29 feet. 32% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.