This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Seth Jarvis
Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing
Five foot ten, thirty-three goals, and sixty per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | CAR | 68 | 17 | 23 | 40 | +11 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 110 | 15.4 | 13:53 |
| 2022-23 | CAR | 82 | 14 | 25 | 39 | +10 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 7.5 | 16:12 |
| 2023-24 | CAR | 81 | 33 | 34 | 67 | +23 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 176 | 18.8 | 18:45 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 231 | 64 | 82 | 146 | +44 | 44 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 473 | 13.5 | 16:25 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
33 goals and 34 assists in 81 games — 67 points at 18:45 a night, plus-23, with 13 power-play goals, 2 shorthanded goals and 9 game-winners on 176 shots, converting at 18.75 per cent, and 14 penalty minutes. He was 22.
56.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,081 minutes, the 94th percentile. His ice went 41-39 against an expectation of 48.84-37.23 — six goals of scoring missing and two conceded above expectation.
The Finesse Game
176 attempts at a median of 16 feet, with 60 per cent from inside 20 and 10 per cent from beyond 40 — the most net-front shot profile on this roster by a distance — converting at 18.75 per cent.
He goes to the paint and he stays there at 5-10 and 180 pounds, which is a decision that has to be made every shift against men fifty pounds heavier, and it is why thirteen of the thirty-three came on the power play. The hands in tight are the best on the club.
34 assists. He is a scorer first and the distribution is genuine rather than incidental.
The Physical Game
5-10 and 180. He cannot win a puck on the wall against a defenceman and he is moved off the front of the net by force, and he goes back to it anyway.
14 penalty minutes in 81 games and 44 in 231 for his career is one of the cleanest rates in this edition. He does not retaliate and he does not agitate — the compete is entirely in going to the hard places rather than in anything after the whistle.
The Intangibles
Thirteenth overall in 2020, out of Portland in the Western league, and 231 games, 146 points and a career plus-44 at 22.
Thirty-three goals and nine game-winners at twenty-two, at 5-10 and 180 pounds, on the club that finished last in the league in finishing, is the most impressive individual line in this chapter. He is the player this roster is going to be built around.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,081 minutes
- Expected goals
- 56.7%
- 94th pct
- Shot attempts
- 58.2%
- 97th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 39 against. Expected: 48.8 and 37.2.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 1081 minutes at five-on-five
- Jordan Staal35%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- CAR took 56.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.7% — 0.1 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,081 minutes at five-on-five — 69th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 53.8% | 60.6% | 53.0% |
| Jaccob Slavin | 56.6% | 56.8% | 56.6% |
| Brent Burns | 56.7% | 56.7% | 56.1% |
53.8% together, 60.6% for him apart and 53.0% for Aho apart. He was better away from Aho, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Aho.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
259 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 61% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.