This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Seth Jarvis

Five foot ten, thirty-three goals, and sixty per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2021-22	CAR	68	17	23	40	+11	18	2	0	4	110	15.4	13:53
2022-23	CAR	82	14	25	39	+10	12	0	1	0	187	7.5	16:12
2023-24	CAR	81	33	34	67	+23	14	13	2	9	176	18.8	18:45
2024-25 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	231	64	82	146	+44	44	15	3	13	473	13.5	16:25

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

33 goals and 34 assists in 81 games — 67 points at 18:45 a night, plus-23, with 13 power-play goals, 2 shorthanded goals and 9 game-winners on 176 shots, converting at 18.75 per cent, and 14 penalty minutes. He was 22.

58.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,081 minutes, the 96th percentile. His ice went 58-35 against an expectation of 51.42-37.09 — six goals of scoring missing and two conceded above expectation.

The Finesse Game

176 attempts at a median of 16 feet, with 60 per cent from inside 20 and 10 per cent from beyond 40 — the most net-front shot profile on this roster by a distance — converting at 18.75 per cent.

He goes to the paint and he stays there at 5-10 and 180 pounds, which is a decision that has to be made every shift against men fifty pounds heavier, and it is why thirteen of the thirty-three came on the power play. The hands in tight are the best on the club.

34 assists. He is a scorer first and the distribution is genuine rather than incidental.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 180. He cannot win a puck on the wall against a defenceman and he is moved off the front of the net by force, and he goes back to it anyway.

14 penalty minutes in 81 games and 44 in 231 for his career is one of the cleanest rates in this edition. He does not retaliate and he does not agitate — the compete is entirely in going to the hard places rather than in anything after the whistle.

The Intangibles

Thirteenth overall in 2020, out of Portland in the Western league, and 231 games, 146 points and a career plus-44 at 22.

Thirty-three goals and nine game-winners at twenty-two, at 5-10 and 180 pounds, on the club that finished last in the league in finishing, is the most impressive individual line in this chapter. He is the player this roster is going to be built around.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored
67.6% of his attempts in the slot, 95th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it
durable· was available
81 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“**He goes to the paint and he stays there at 5-10 and 180 pounds**, which is a decision that has to be made every shift against men fifty pounds heavier, and it is why thirteen of the thirty-three came on the power play.”
wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line
“**He cannot win a puck on the wall against a defenceman and he is moved off the front of the net by force**, and he goes back to it anyway.”
hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand
“**He cannot win a puck on the wall against a defenceman and he is moved off the front of the net by force**, and he goes back to it anyway.”
retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty
“He does not retaliate and he does not agitate — the compete is entirely in going to the hard places rather than in anything after the whistle.”
agitatorhe lacks it· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation
“He does not retaliate and he does not agitate — the compete is entirely in going to the hard places rather than in anything after the whistle.”
penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short
“with **13 power-play goals**, **2 shorthanded goals** and **9 game-winners** on 176 shots, converting at **18.75 per cent**, and 14 penalty minutes. **He was 22.**”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,081 minutes

Expected goals: 58.1%; 96th pct
Shot attempts: 58.7%; 97th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 58 for, 35 against. Expected: 51.4 and 37.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

93rd

Numbers

96th

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed: 22.7 mph; 75th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 2.46 a game
Distance: 3.07 miles a game
Hardest shot: 85.5 mph; 41st pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1081 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club: CAR took 56.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.1% — 1.5 above the club he did it on.
The role: First line, 1,081 minutes at five-on-five — 69th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Sebastian Aho	56.5%	60.0%	53.1%
Jaccob Slavin	60.2%	56.4%	56.7%
Brent Burns	60.7%	56.2%	56.6%

56.5% together, 60.0% for him apart and 53.1% for Aho apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Aho behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

259 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 61% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.