Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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88

Martin Necas

Carolina Hurricanes Center

Two hundred and thirty-one shots, twenty-four goals, and thirteen goals missing from his ice.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CAR1000000000—6:54
2018-19CAR711202000616.710:01
2019-20CAR64162036-6205038818.214:10
2020-21CAR53142741+251042311412.317:17
2021-22CAR78142640+5322161598.816:11
2022-23CAR82284371+53290524011.718:25
2023-24CAR77242953-94280323110.417:21
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—36297146243+201382832083811.616:36

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

24 goals and 29 assists in 77 games — 53 points at 17:21 a night, minus-9, with 8 power-play goals and 3 game-winners on 231 shots, converting at 10.39 per cent, and 42 penalty minutes.

Two hundred and thirty-one attempts is the largest volume on the roster and 10.39 per cent is the lowest conversion of any regular forward.

53.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,111 minutes, the 78th percentile. His ice went 46-51 against an expectation of 54.94-47.94 — thirteen goals of scoring missing, and eleven fewer conceded than the chances predicted.

The Finesse Game

231 attempts at a median of 33 feet, with 28 per cent from beyond 40 and 26 per cent from inside 20, converting at 10.39 per cent against a career 11.58.

The skating is the top end of this roster and possibly of the league — he enters the offensive zone with the puck under control at speed, which on a club whose entries are otherwise a chip and a chase is the rarest thing it has. He carries it and he gains the line.

29 assists. The passing is good and the decision at the end of the rush is the weakest part of the game — he takes the shot from thirty-three feet more often than the play deserves.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 195 and light for the height. He does not forecheck with force and he does not win pucks on the wall, and he goes around contact rather than through it.

42 penalty minutes in 77 games and 138 in 362 for his career. He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.

The Intangibles

Twelfth overall in 2017, out of Brno, and 362 games and 243 points at 25, all of them here.

He is 25 and had a career high in shots and a career-low conversion. On a club that finished last in the league in finishing, the man who took the most attempts and scored on the fewest of them is the season in one player, and the direction of that correction is the reason to be optimistic about him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “**The skating is the top end of this roster and possibly of the league** — he enters the offensive zone with the puck under control at speed, which on a club whose entries are otherwise a chip and a chase is the rarest thing it has. **He carries it and he gains the line.**”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “**He does not forecheck with force and he does not win pucks on the wall**, and he goes around contact rather than through it.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “**He does not forecheck with force and he does not win pucks on the wall**, and he goes around contact rather than through it.”

  • agitatorhe lacks it· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not agitate and he does not retaliate.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,111 minutes

Expected goals
53.4%
79th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
58.2%
97th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 51 against. Expected: 54.9 and 47.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
57th
Numbers
79th

The numbers rank him 22 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 77 games

Top speed
23.7 mph
98th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
4.70 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.10 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
99.9 mph
99th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1111 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CAR took 56.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.4% — 3.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 1,111 minutes at five-on-five — 73rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dmitry Orlov52.5%54.0%60.6%
Jack Drury59.4%50.8%56.8%
Jaccob Slavin55.9%52.3%58.5%

52.5% together, 54.0% for him apart and 60.6% for Orlov apart. Orlov was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

321 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 26% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.