This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Sebastian Aho
Carolina Hurricanes Center
Eighty-nine points, thirty-six goals and ten game-winners — and the worst five-on-five goal ledger of any regular on the club.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | CAR | 82 | 24 | 25 | 49 | -1 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 214 | 11.2 | 16:47 |
| 2017-18 | CAR | 78 | 29 | 36 | 65 | +4 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 200 | 14.5 | 17:55 |
| 2018-19 | CAR | 82 | 30 | 53 | 83 | +25 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 243 | 12.3 | 20:09 |
| 2019-20 | CAR | 68 | 38 | 28 | 66 | +10 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 206 | 18.4 | 19:25 |
| 2020-21 | CAR | 56 | 24 | 33 | 57 | +16 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 148 | 16.2 | 19:28 |
| 2021-22 | CAR | 79 | 37 | 44 | 81 | +18 | 38 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 221 | 16.7 | 18:57 |
| 2022-23 | CAR | 75 | 36 | 31 | 67 | +8 | 42 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 218 | 16.5 | 19:30 |
| 2023-24 | CAR | 78 | 36 | 53 | 89 | +34 | 36 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 216 | 16.7 | 19:38 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 598 | 254 | 303 | 557 | +114 | 250 | 63 | 17 | 55 | 1666 | 15.3 | 18:57 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
36 goals and 53 assists in 78 games — 89 points at 19:38 a night, with 11 power-play goals, 1 shorthanded goal and 10 game-winners on 216 shots, converting at 16.67 per cent, and 36 penalty minutes.
53.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,102 minutes, the 78th percentile. His ice went 30-38 against an expectation of 51.02-44.56 — twenty goals of scoring missing, the largest shortfall on a club that finished last in the league in finishing.
The season plus-minus reads plus-34 and the five-on-five ledger reads 31-38; the two cannot both be describing the same eighty-two games, and every other figure on this page is built from the ledger.
The Finesse Game
216 attempts at a median of 26 feet, with 35 per cent from inside 20 and 24 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 16.67 per cent — a career 15.25 across 1,666 shots, so the finishing is the player rather than the year.
He holds the puck below the goal line and waits for the seam rather than forcing it, and 53 assists and 303 for his career is the larger half of what he does. He is one of a small number of forwards in the league who is genuinely equal at both.
Ten game-winning goals is the most on the club and 55 for his career in 598 games.
The Physical Game
6-0 and 189. He forechecks honestly without punishing anybody, and he will lose a puck on the wall to a heavy defenceman.
36 penalty minutes in 78 games and 250 in 598 for his career is a low rate. He is trusted a man short and has 17 career shorthanded goals, which for a first-line centre is unusual and is the anticipation rather than the speed.
The Intangibles
Thirty-fifth overall in 2015 — a second-round pick — out of Rauma, and 598 games, 557 points and a career plus-114, all of them here.
He is 27 and is the best player on a club that was first in the league in shot attempts. A second-round pick who becomes a point-a-game first-line centre is the piece of drafting the whole decade of this club rests on, and the twenty goals missing from his ice last season are the single clearest illustration of what happened to this team.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,102 minutes
- Expected goals
- 53.4%
- 78th pct
- Shot attempts
- 56.9%
- 95th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 30 for, 38 against. Expected: 51.0 and 44.6.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 21 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 201 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 1102 minutes at five-on-five
- Seth Jarvis50%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- CAR took 56.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.4% — 3.2 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,102 minutes at five-on-five — 72nd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis | 53.8% | 53.0% | 60.6% |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 54.8% | 52.5% | 58.1% |
| Jaccob Slavin | 52.8% | 53.8% | 58.2% |
53.8% together, 53.0% for him apart and 60.6% for Jarvis apart. Jarvis was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
313 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 38 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 35% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.