Boston Bruins

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 23 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 237 for, 219 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 51.2% 15th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 53.5% 6th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.35 11th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.49 21st of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +25.7 3rd of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +36.3 1st of 32

Boston Bruins scored 25.7 more goals than their chances were worth and got 36.3 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 62 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.5; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 20.2%; of skater points
From under 26: 29.0%; of skater points
Homegrown: 57.3%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 87.2%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

A hundred and thirty-five points, and sixty-two goals of finishing and goaltending on top of what the chances were worth — the largest such figure in the league, by a factor of nearly two.

Who this names 11 of 23 on the roster · 43% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Brandon Carlo, Jake DeBrusk, Derek Forbort, Trent Frederic, Matt Grzelcyk, Jakub Lauko, Hampus Lindholm, Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, Jayson Megna, Ian Mitchell, Pavel Zacha.

What the Quant Says

65-12-5, 135 points, 1st in the league — 22 points clear of Carolina, and more points than any club has recorded in any season this project holds data for.

305 goals for, 2nd. 177 against, 1st by 36. Tenth at creating chances at even strength, 5th at suppressing them, 1st on the penalty kill and 6th on the power play.

At five-on-five: 199 goals scored against 173.3 expected, and 114 conceded against 150.3. The finishing was 3rd at plus-25.7 and the goaltending 1st at plus-36.3. Sixty-two goals of edge over what the chances were worth — the largest combined figure in the league, and nearly twice the second-largest.

That is the whole page. This was a very good team that was fifteenth in shot-attempt share and tenth at making chances, and it won 65 games because two goaltenders posted .9375 and .9203 and the skaters converted at a rate nobody sustains.

Boston then lost a seven-game first-round series to Florida.

Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci do not return. Milan Lucic, James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Geekie, Danton Heinen, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jesper Boqvist and Patrick Brown all arrive. Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno, Tomas Nosek and Connor Clifton do not.

Both centres retired in the same summer from the club with the best record in hockey. Everything about the coming season is that sentence.

What the Scout Says

The best record in hockey, and both centres gone in one summer.

David Pastrnak scored 61 goals on 407 shots. Linus Ullmark posted a .9375 in 49 games and Jeremy Swayman a .9203 in 37. Charlie Coyle has been promoted to first-line centre by two retirements rather than by anything he did.

The wingers are as good as any group in this book and the blue line is settled and large. The middle of the ice has been emptied, and there is nobody on the roster who has done that job before.

Who this names 8 of 14 forwards · 69% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Jesper Boqvist, Patrick Brown, Morgan Geekie, Danton Heinen, Jakub Lauko, Jayson Megna.

What the Quant Says

305 goals, 2nd in the league. Only Edmonton scored more.

Boston created 2.787 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 9th, and took 51.2 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 15th, and 53.5 per cent of the expected goals, 6th.

At five-on-five it scored 199 goals against an expectation of 173.3 — a surplus of 25.7, 3rd in the league.

David Pastrnak scored 61 goals and had 113 points on 407 shots — second in goals behind Connor McDavid, and the most shots on goal of any skater in the league. Brad Marchand had 21 and 67 at 35, Pavel Zacha 21 and 57, Jake DeBrusk 27 goals in 64 games, Hampus Lindholm 53 points and a plus-49 and Charlie McAvoy 52 in 67 games.

Jake DeBrusk held a 62.3 per cent chance share at five-on-five, the second-highest of any forward among the 525 skaters in this book. David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron do not return.

What the Scout Says

Sixty-one goals from a right winger, and a centre depth chart that has been erased.

David Pastrnak is 6-0 and 199 and was twenty-fifth overall in 2014, which is now among the great steals of the decade — 301 goals and 617 points in 592 games before his twenty-eighth birthday. The skating is elite and under-discussed: 23.5 mph at the 98th percentile and 3.06 miles a game at the 83rd. Everything Boston does runs through the question of who feeds him.

Brad Marchand is 5-9 and 180 with 947 games, 862 points and 973 penalty minutes, and he is the captain now. There is no version of this season where his job is only to play, and he is 35 with a hip that has been operated on.

Charlie Coyle is 6-3 and 221 with 785 games and 390 points, and takes 58 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. Nothing in eleven seasons suggests he is a first-line centre and nothing in them suggests he will complain about being asked.

Pavel Zacha is 6-4 and was sixth overall in 2015, with one top-six season behind him. Jake DeBrusk scored 27 goals in 64 games on the 5th-percentile shot. Trent Frederic scored 17 goals and 6 game-winners in under 12 minutes a night.

James van Riemsdyk arrives at 34 with 940 games and 59 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, and Milan Lucic with 1,173 games and 1,299 penalty minutes.

Who this names 7 of 7 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Boston allowed 2.422 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 5th in the league, and conceded 177 goals — the fewest in hockey, by 36.

At five-on-five it conceded 114 goals against an expectation of 150.3, and the goaltending came in 36.3 goals better than the chances it faced, the best figure in the league. The defence was fifth. The crease turned fifth into first.

Hampus Lindholm played 80 games at 23:11 and finished plus-49 with 43 assists, in a first full season here. Charlie McAvoy had 45 assists in 67 games at 22:18 and a 55.6 per cent chance share.

Brandon Carlo is 6-5 and finished plus-44 on 16 points, and Matt Grzelcyk plus-46 at 5-10 and 180 pounds on the softest deployment on the blue line. Derek Forbort scored 2 shorthanded goals on 38 shots all season.

Kevin Shattenkirk arrives from Anaheim with 891 career games and a Stanley Cup, and Ian Mitchell from Chicago. Connor Clifton has gone to Buffalo.

What the Scout Says

Four defencemen who were all plus-29 or better, and a fifth who has arrived at 34.

Hampus Lindholm is 6-4 and 217 and was sixth overall in 2012, and he arrived at the 2022 deadline for a price that looked heavy and now does not. A plus-49 built partly on a .938 goaltender is not a repeatable number, and the first honest test of this defence is what it looks like when the goaltending is merely very good.

Charlie McAvoy is 6-1 and 211 out of Boston University and stepped into a playoff series at nineteen without looking out of place. With Bergeron gone, the minutes that used to go to a Selke winner have to go somewhere, and the most likely place is his pair.

Brandon Carlo is 6-5 and 227 with 478 games, all here. He has a documented concussion history that has cost him significant time in more than one season, and it is the fact that governs his value more than any number.

Matt Grzelcyk is 5-10 and 180 with 382 NHL games, sheltered by design and effective within that shelter. The fair question is what he is on a team that cannot protect him.

Derek Forbort is 6-4 with 282 career penalty minutes. Kevin Shattenkirk arrives at 34 with 891 games and a Stanley Cup, at the 3rd percentile in top speed and the 1st in sprints.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 36.3 goals better than the chances it faced — the best figure in the league, and the second-best belonged to the New York Islanders. This is the single largest number on any club page in this edition, and it is the reason for the record.

Linus Ullmark went 40-6-1 with a .9375 and a 1.89 in 49 games, facing 1,457 shots. His career line across 207 games is a .9192. A .938 is not a repeatable figure and nothing in the career line suggests otherwise.

Jeremy Swayman went 24-6-4 with a .9203 and a 2.27 in 37 games at 24, facing 953. His career line across 88 games is a .9199 — remarkably, almost exactly what he did last season.

Together they went 64-12-5. No other club in the league had two goaltenders above .920.

Boston lost a seven-game first-round series to Florida after 135 points. Nothing on this page explains that, and the goaltending is the first place a reader will look.

What the Scout Says

Two goaltenders above .920 in the same season, and one of them has never had a job of his own.

Linus Ullmark is 6-4 and 223 and went 40-6-1 with a .9375. He is enormous, he is calm, and he tracks pucks through traffic as well as anybody in this book; the positioning grade of 88 is the highest on any card in this chapter. The career .9192 across 207 games is the honest number, and it is still very good.

Jeremy Swayman is 6-3 and 195 and posted a .9203 at 24 — and a career .9199 across 88 games, which is the rare case of a young goaltender whose season and career figures agree. He is quicker across the crease than his partner and plays a more athletic game.

Boston has the deepest crease in hockey and one net. The club won 65 games and lost in seven in the first round, and there is no measurement in this project that can tell you which of those two facts the goaltending caused.

Who this names 7 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

1st in the league at 5.614 expected goals against per 60 — the best penalty kill in hockey — over 5:58 a night, the second-most shorthanded time of any club. The best rate in the league on very nearly the most ice.

Derek Forbort scored 2 shorthanded goals and Charlie Coyle 1. Patrick Brown scored 1 elsewhere.

Brad Marchand has 33 career shorthanded goals in 947 games, the most on the roster by 27 and one of the largest such figures in this book. Charlie Coyle has 6 in 785, Pavel Zacha 5 in 468 and James van Riemsdyk 3 in 940.

Brandon Carlo is 6-5 and 227 with 265 career penalty minutes and Derek Forbort 6-4 with 282 in 461 games. Both of them defend the front of the net for a living.

The best kill in the league, on the second-most shorthanded time in it, and the two men who took the most of those minutes are both still here. This is the department least disturbed by the summer.

What the Scout Says

The best penalty kill in the league, and the man who has scored the most shorthanded goals on it is the captain.

Brad Marchand has 33 career shorthanded goals in 947 games. He kills penalties as an attacking act and always has, and 27 more than anybody else on this roster is not an accident of usage.

Charlie Coyle has 6 career shorthanded goals in 785 games and Pavel Zacha 5 in 468. Derek Forbort scored 2 last season on 38 shots all year, which tells you where he spends his shorthanded minutes.

Brandon Carlo is 6-5 and 227 and Derek Forbort 6-4 and 216, and the kill is built on two very large men clearing a crease. Patrick Brown is undrafted with 138 games and exists on a roster because somebody has to do this.

First in the league by rate on the second-most shorthanded time in it. Nothing here needs changing and nothing here has been changed.

The roster

Evidence 0 Full 21 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2022-23.

Jesper Boqvist

C · Boston Bruins

Two penalty minutes in seventy games, and a 14.9 per cent shooting season that will not repeat.

Patrick Brown

C · Boston Bruins

Undrafted, 138 NHL games across seven seasons, and a job that exists because somebody has to kill penalties.

Brandon Carlo

D · Boston Bruins

Six-foot-five, a plus-44, sixteen points, and a concussion history that shapes the whole file.

Charlie Coyle

C · Boston Bruins

Fifty-eight per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet, and a promotion he did not ask for.

Jake DeBrusk

LW · Boston Bruins

Twenty-seven goals on the fifth-percentile shot, and the second-best five-on-five share of any forward in this book.

Derek Forbort

D · Boston Bruins

Two shorthanded goals from a defenceman who took thirty-eight shots all season.

Trent Frederic

C · Boston Bruins

Seventeen goals and six game-winners in under twelve minutes a night.

Morgan Geekie

C · Boston Bruins

The 91st percentile in shot velocity and the 4th in distance covered — a hard shot on a man who barely moves.

Matt Grzelcyk

D · Boston Bruins

Five-foot-ten and 180 pounds, 382 NHL games, and a plus-46 on the softest usage on the blue line.

Danton Heinen

LW · Boston Bruins

A fourth-line winger with the 80th percentile in five-on-five share and the 7th in distance covered.

Jakub Lauko

C · Boston Bruins

Twenty-three games, four goals, and the lowest distance covered of any forward in the book.

Hampus Lindholm

D · Boston Bruins

A plus-49 and fifty-three points at twenty-nine, in a first full season in Boston.

Milan Lucic

LW · Boston Bruins

One thousand one hundred and seventy-three games, 1,299 penalty minutes, and a 100 mph shot that produced seven goals.

Brad Marchand

LW · Boston Bruins

Nine hundred and forty-seven games, 973 penalty minutes, and the 18th percentile in top speed at thirty-five.

Charlie McAvoy

D · Boston Bruins

Fifty-two points in sixty-seven games, and the 80th percentile in zone starts.

Jayson Megna

C · Boston Bruins

Undrafted, 203 games over nine seasons, and 1.57 miles a game — the 1st percentile in distance covered.

Ian Mitchell

D · Boston Bruins

The first percentile in five-on-five share, on the worst club in the Western Conference.

David Pastrnak

RW · Boston Bruins

Sixty-one goals on 407 shots, the 98th percentile in top speed and the 93rd in shot velocity.

James van Riemsdyk

LW · Boston Bruins

Fifty-nine per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet, at thirty-four, after fourteen years of standing in the same place.

Kevin Shattenkirk

D · Boston Bruins

The third percentile in top speed and the first in sprints, on a defenceman asked to play nineteen minutes.

Jeremy Swayman

G · Boston Bruins

A .920 in thirty-seven games behind the best defensive club in hockey, and no job of his own.

Linus Ullmark

G · Boston Bruins

A .938 and a 40-6-1 record, and neither number is going to happen again.

Pavel Zacha

C · Boston Bruins

Fifty-seven points, and twenty goals more than the chances on his ice predicted.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.