Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

88

David Pastrnak

Boston Bruins Right Wing

Sixty-one goals on 407 shots, the 98th percentile in top speed and the 93rd in shot velocity.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15BOS46101727+1282039310.813:58
2015-16BOS51151126+32000210813.913:57
2016-17BOS75343670+1134100626213.017:59
2017-18BOS82354580+1037130524614.217:58
2018-19BOS66384381+632170423516.218:45
2019-20BOS70484795+21402001027917.218:58
2020-21BOS48202848+102460317611.418:37
2021-22BOS72403777+1320150931212.818:36
2022-23BOS826152113+34381801340715.019:34
2023-24 so far
Career592301316617+120253101055211814.217:52

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

61 goals and 52 assists in 82 games — 113 points at 19:34 a night, plus-34, with 18 power-play goals and 13 game-winners on 407 shots, converting at 14.99 per cent, and 38 penalty minutes.

Four hundred and seven shots is the volume of a man who has decided the puck is his, and 61 goals is the most by a Bruin since Phil Esposito. 54.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,202 minutes, the 83rd percentile; his ice went 73-41 against an expectation of 57.5-48.22.

Thirteen game-winners on a club that won 65 games.

The Finesse Game

407 attempts at a median of 33 feet, 26 per cent from inside 20 and 30 per cent from beyond 40, off a shot measured at 98.5 mph — the 93rd percentile in the league.

This is the rare forward who is genuinely hard to defend from distance, and the shot chart shows it: he scores from the circles, from the slot, and from places most wingers only pass from. The one-timer from the left dot on the power play is the most reliable single play in hockey and 18 power-play goals is the accounting of it.

52 assists and 316 for his career says he is not merely a shooter, though the club is built on the assumption that he is.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 199, and the physical game is incidental — 253 penalty minutes in 592 games and he does not seek contact.

The skating is elite and under-discussed: 23.5 mph top end at the 98th percentile, 1.7 bursts over twenty a game at the 79th, and 3.06 miles a game at the 83rd. He is one of the fastest forwards in the league and he works, which is why the defensive numbers hold up despite a game entirely oriented at the other net.

The Intangibles

Twenty-fifth overall in 2014, which is now among the great steals of the decade — 301 goals and 617 points in 592 games before his twenty-eighth birthday.

He is 27 and the club has just lost both of its centres to retirement. Everything Boston does this season runs through the question of who feeds him, and the honest answer on the roster as it stands is that nobody on it has done it before.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    30.2% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    65% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He is one of the fastest forwards in the league and he works, which is why the defensive numbers hold up despite a game entirely oriented at the other net.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “the physical game is incidental — 253 penalty minutes in 592 games and he does not seek contact”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,202 minutes

Expected goals
54.4%
84th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.6%
76th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 73 for, 41 against. Expected: 57.5 and 48.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
98th
Numbers
84th

The two rank him within 14 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 58 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1202 minutes at five-on-five

  • David Krejcioff the roster60%
  • Taylor Hallnow CHI20%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
BOS took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.4% — 0.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,202 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
David Krejci49.0%62.0%45.8%
Pavel Zacha50.4%58.3%52.9%
Matt Grzelcyk53.6%54.8%53.8%

49.0% together, 62.0% for him apart and 45.8% for Krejci apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Krejci behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

536 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 61 of them goals. His median goal came from 29 feet. 26% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 30% from beyond forty.