Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

63

Brad Marchand

Boston Bruins Left Wing

Nine hundred and forty-seven games, 973 penalty minutes, and the 18th percentile in top speed at thirty-five.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10BOS20011-320000320.011:58
2010-11BOS77212041+255125214914.113:59
2011-12BOS76282755+318751316716.817:37
2012-13BOS45181836+23274259119.816:58
2013-14BOS82252853+366415514916.815:57
2014-15BOS77241842+59522518013.316:54
2015-16BOS77372461+219064625014.818:36
2016-17BOS80394685+188193822617.319:26
2017-18BOS68345185+256381818218.719:43
2018-19BOS793664100+1596103923115.619:37
2019-20BOS70285987+258251518515.119:27
2020-21BOS53294069+264644514320.318:55
2021-22BOS70324880+169772624213.219:15
2022-23BOS73214667+277490418311.518:32
2023-24 so far
Career947372490862+290973723371241015.417:55

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

21 goals and 46 assists in 73 games — 67 points at 18:32 a night, plus-27, with 9 power-play goals on 183 shots and 74 penalty minutes.

59.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 948 minutes — the 97th percentile in the league. His ice went 47-20 against an expectation of 50.19-34.63, which is fifteen fewer goals conceded than the chances predicted and is the goaltending as much as the defending.

He did it after off-season hip surgery that cost him the start of the season.

The Finesse Game

183 attempts at a median of 27 feet, 35 per cent from inside 20, off an 89.2 mph shot at the 40th percentile.

490 career assists against 372 goals is the giveaway: the passing has quietly become the better half of him. He is the club’s best puck-handler in traffic and the man who slows a rush down until a seam opens, and at 35 the game has moved from scoring to distributing without anybody quite announcing it.

The Physical Game

5-9 and 180 pounds, with 973 career penalty minutes — one of the most disliked players in the league by design, and the edge has always been part of the value rather than a tax on it.

He gets under people, he draws the retaliation, and he has crossed the line often enough to have been suspended more than once. He is also 35 and the tracking is blunt about it: 21.6 mph top end is the 18th percentile. The honest reading is that the anticipation now does the work the feet used to — he arrives early because he left early — and that is a skill that ages better than speed but not indefinitely.

The Intangibles

Seventy-first overall in 2006, seventeen years, 947 games, 862 points and a Stanley Cup at twenty-three, all in one uniform.

He is the captain now, of a club that just lost Bergeron and Krejci in the same summer, and there is no version of this season where his job is only to play. He is 35 with a hip that has been operated on. The question nobody in Boston wants asked is what this roster looks like when he is no longer able to carry it, and the answer is probably two years away rather than five.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    59.2% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 51.6% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.6, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He gets under people, he draws the retaliation, and he has crossed the line often enough to have been suspended more than once.”

  • takes-libertiesa strength· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He gets under people, he draws the retaliation, and he has crossed the line often enough to have been suspended more than once.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is the club's best puck-handler in traffic and the man who slows a rush down until a seam opens”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “He is the captain now, of a club that just lost Bergeron and Krejci in the same summer”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 948 minutes

Expected goals
59.2%
97th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
57.1%
95th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 47 for, 20 against. Expected: 50.2 and 34.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
98th
Numbers
97th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 58 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 948 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
BOS took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.2% — 5.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 948 minutes at five-on-five — 52nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Patrice Bergeron62.6%46.2%68.9%
Jake DeBrusk61.6%56.4%63.8%
Hampus Lindholm60.1%58.5%54.2%

62.6% together, 46.2% for him apart and 68.9% for Bergeron apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Bergeron and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

248 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.