This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Brandon Carlo

Six-foot-five, a plus-44, sixteen points, and a concussion history that shapes the whole file.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2016-17	BOS	82	6	10	16	+9	59	0	1	0	88	6.8	20:49
2017-18	BOS	76	0	6	6	+10	45	0	0	0	76	0.0	19:14
2018-19	BOS	72	2	8	10	+22	47	0	0	0	116	1.7	20:55
2019-20	BOS	67	4	15	19	+16	33	0	0	0	111	3.6	20:29
2020-21	BOS	27	3	1	4	+1	12	0	0	1	43	7.0	18:43
2021-22	BOS	79	6	9	15	+2	31	0	1	0	125	4.8	19:42
2022-23	BOS	75	3	13	16	+44	38	0	0	0	94	3.2	18:50
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	478	24	62	86	+104	265	0	2	1	653	3.7	19:55

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 13 assists in 75 games — 16 points at 18:50 a night, plus-44, on 94 shots and 38 penalty minutes.

54.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,149 minutes, the 85th percentile, and his ice went 59-27 against an expectation of 47.52-39.23. Twelve fewer goals conceded than the chances predicted — again, in front of a .938 goaltender.

The Finesse Game

94 attempts at a median of 48 feet, 69 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 3.19 per cent. 24 goals and 86 points in 478 career games.

There is no offensive game and the club does not want one from him. The first pass is simple and correct and it is the whole of his contribution with the puck.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 227, and this is the entire player — he takes away the ice in front of him with reach and body position, he blocks shots, and forwards do not get to the net through him.

The skating is better than the size suggests at 22.3 mph, the 52nd percentile, which is enough because he is rarely asked to turn and chase. He defends the rush by closing the gap early and using the stick before the contact is needed.

The Intangibles

Thirty-seventh overall in 2015, seven seasons and 478 games, all here.

He has a documented concussion history that has cost him significant time in more than one season, and it is the fact that governs his value more than any of the numbers above. A shutdown defenceman who is very good and frequently unavailable is worth less than one who is merely good and always there, and Boston has priced him as though the first half of that sentence is the only half.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best
36% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 3rd percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens
“He defends the rush by closing the gap early and using the stick before the contact is needed.”
shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it
“he takes away the ice in front of him with reach and body position, he blocks shots, and forwards do not get to the net through him”
clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net
“forwards do not get to the net through him”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,149 minutes

Expected goals: 54.8%; 86th pct
Shot attempts: 50.5%; 57th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 27 against. Expected: 47.5 and 39.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

69th

Numbers

86th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 58 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1149 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: BOS took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.8% — 1.3 above the club he did it on.
The role: First pair, 1,149 minutes at five-on-five — 79th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Hampus Lindholm	55.9%	53.3%	56.1%
Charlie Coyle	49.4%	56.8%	50.7%
David Pastrnak	54.8%	54.8%	54.2%

55.9% together, 53.3% for him apart and 56.1% for Lindholm apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

125 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 14% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.