Boston Bruins

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 25 reports in the 2026-27 edition.

The club

2025-26 · 82 games · 237 for, 219 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 48.9% 19th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 48.0% 23rd of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.35 11th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 7.49 21st of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +22.0 1st of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +23.2 3rd of 32

Boston Bruins scored 22.0 more goals than their chances were worth and got 23.2 more saves than the chances they faced warranted — 45 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain. Both halves regress.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 27.9; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 3.0%; of skater points
From under 26: 20.2%; of skater points
Homegrown: 25.4%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 87.2%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

272 goals built on the best finishing and the third-best goaltending in the league, and the 23rd-best chances underneath them.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

The book

30th of 32

The numbers

24th of 32

The two place this roster within 6 spots of one another. Every report underneath was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars rank this club among the 32 in the edition. The report bar is the mean of its players' grades, weighted by the five-on-five minutes each of them played; the numbers bar is their expected-goal share on the same weighting. It counts 23 of the 25 reports on this roster — the rest have no five-on-five record long enough to weigh — and it reads the roster as it stands rather than the club's own last season.

Who the words reach 21 of 25 · 89% of the five-on-five minutes who is left out (4)

The bars above counted every man on the roster with enough ice time to weigh. The paragraphs name whoever they name, and no rule says who that should be — so this says who it was, over the write-up as a whole. Each section below reaches far fewer than this, which is the figure that matters: the section is where the selection happens, and the count sits under each one. The share is of the five-on-five minutes played by the 23 men on this roster who have a measured record.

Not named: Jonathan Aspirot, Michael Eyssimont, Brendan Gaunce, Alex Steeves.

Who this names 9 of 25 on the roster · 38% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Jonathan Aspirot, Will Borgen, Connor Clifton, Michael Eyssimont, Brendan Gaunce, Henri Jokiharju, Marat Khusnutdinov, Sean Kuraly, Elias Lindholm, Hampus Lindholm, Mason Lohrei, Charlie McAvoy, Fraser Minten, Casey Mittelstadt, Jiri Patera, Alex Steeves.

What the Quant Says

A good record laid over a middling team. Boston took 48.9 per cent of the 5-on-5 shot attempts, nineteenth, and 48.0 per cent of the chances, 23rd — then scored 22.0 goals above what those chances were worth, the largest surplus in the league, and got 23.2 more saves than the shots warranted, third. 45 goals of the season came from the 2 things least likely to happen again.

Underneath, 5 of 21 skaters with real minutes finished above 50 per cent in chance share. The club is 11th in continuity, so most of it returns; the additions — JJ Peterka from Utah, Bowen Byram-style relief on the blue line it did not get — are the only reason to expect the process to move. This is a playoff team on last year's scoreboard and a bubble team on last year's play.

What the Scout Says

A heavy, honest, well-organised club that is short of players who can change a game by themselves. The size is real and it is used properly: Mark Kastelic wins the wall battles a fourth line has to win, Tanner Jeannot hits and forechecks and answers, Nikita Zadorov is the largest man covered in this book and makes the front of his own net an unpleasant place to stand.

What it lacks is the man who can carry a puck through trouble. Outside David Pastrnak — whose shot is still one of the three or four best in the world — the skill here is functional rather than dangerous. Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie are big men with soft hands who arrive late and unmarked rather than creating anything, and the small skilled players get removed from pucks by defencemen who are simply bigger: JJ Peterka is bumped off plays, Lukas Reichel cannot hold a wall at all. The identity is a group that works, defends, and waits for Jeremy Swayman to be excellent.

Who this names 7 of 15 forwards · 58% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Michael Eyssimont, Brendan Gaunce, Tanner Jeannot, Mark Kastelic, Marat Khusnutdinov, Sean Kuraly, Lukas Reichel, Alex Steeves.

What the Quant Says

21st in even-strength expected goals for, and 272 goals anyway. The gap is the whole club. Boston scored 182 5-on-5 goals against an expectation of 160 — the largest finishing surplus in the league — and almost all of it came from 2 men having the best shooting seasons of their lives. Morgan Geekie put 39 goals on 181 shots, Pavel Zacha 30 on 131. Neither had ever been close. Price them as a 25-goal player and a 20-goal player who had a wonderful year, because that is what the shot charts underneath say they are.

David Pastrnak had 100 points with only 29 goals, which has never been true of him before, and did it while drawing the other team's best pair on a club that could not tilt the ice. Of 21 skaters with real 5-on-5 minutes, 5 finished above 50 per cent of the expected goals. The exception worth watching is Fraser Minten, who played all 82 games at 21, led the club in plus-minus, and is one of the few Bruins whose underlying rate agrees with his scoreboard — 51.2 per cent, 65th percentile, the best of any forward here. JJ Peterka arrives from Utah with an 83rd percentile rate, which is better than anything Boston had. Whether that was him or Utah's system is the first thing to learn about this team.

What the Scout Says

One genuinely elite tool and a supporting cast of honest workers. David Pastrnak's shot has not gone anywhere and the playmaking beside it is not a consolation prize — he runs the power play and sees the back-door play a beat early. The problem is where the attempts are coming from: the release has drifted further out, and a shooter this good should not be working from the perimeter. His 72 penalty minutes are mostly stick fouls and frustration, which is its own kind of report on the season.

Behind him the scoring is arrival rather than creation. Pavel Zacha is 6-4 with soft hands in a crowd, showing up late and unmarked, and the playmaking has quietly become good. Morgan Geekie has real hands in tight and a heavy release that beats goaltenders clean, from perfectly ordinary ice. Casey Mittelstadt would rather pass, sometimes when he should not. Elias Lindholm still has the hands and no longer wins the races that let a two-way centre dictate. The most encouraging forward is Fraser Minten, a young centre with ordinary hands who is always in the right place and strong enough on his stick to hold the wall against men 5 years older. The most interesting is JJ Peterka, quick and slippery and repeatedly bumped off plays — in a lineup built on size, how the club protects him is the season's most useful question.

Who this names 7 of 8 defencemen · 89% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Jonathan Aspirot.

What the Quant Says

23rd in even-strength expected goals against, and the blue line is where the season's record and the season's play part company hardest. Hampus Lindholm is the only Boston defenceman whose minutes actually went well — 50.5 per cent of the expected goals, 58th percentile — and he is 32 and has missed 15 games or more in 3 of the last 4 years.

Everyone else was under water. Charlie McAvoy played 24:23 a night and came out at 48.1 per cent with the goals 66-51 against; he faced the best line every night behind a changing partner, and it has now been more than 1 season of rates sitting below the reputation. Mason Lohrei was plus-17 while being outchanced by 7 goals' worth — 21st percentile. Nikita Zadorov took the most ice of any Bruin, 1,416 5-on-5 minutes, was plus-18, and had the expected goals run 55.3 to 63.4 against him: a 17-goal swing handed to him from behind. Will Borgen played 18 minutes a night at the 20th percentile. The one honest positive is Connor Clifton, who concedes the outside on purpose and made it work.

What the Scout Says

Built to defend the net and not much else. Nikita Zadorov stands at the point, clears the crease, punishes forecheckers, still fights when the game asks, and asks nobody to mistake him for a puck-mover. Charlie McAvoy is both a genuine puck-carrier and unpleasant to play against — the one complete defenceman here — and the concern with him is availability rather than ability, with a fourth season in 5 under 70 games.

After those 2 it becomes a group of specialists. Hampus Lindholm makes a calm first pass and lets the forwards carry, having stopped rushing years ago. Mason Lohrei is comfortable with the puck and looks for the aggressive option, and for a man 6-5 is far too easy to move off it. Connor Clifton has built an 8-year career on being irritating and concedes the outside on purpose, which is a real defensive skill that a crude possession number hides entirely. Henri Jokiharju can move a puck and gets pushed off it by a heavy cycle; Will Borgen is not easy to get past and is not a punisher. What is missing is anyone who reliably escapes a hard forecheck with the puck on his stick, which is why the breakouts get hurried and the shifts get long.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

Jeremy Swayman is the reason a mediocre team finished with a good record. 55 appearances, 1,571 shots faced, a .9071 save percentage and a 2.71 goals-against average, and underneath it 23.2 goals saved beyond what the chances he faced were worth — 3rd in the league. Nearly every plus figure elsewhere on this roster is his: Mark Kastelic's fourth line plus-six on chances it lost by six, Mason Lohrei plus-17 on chances he lost by five, the 20-goal swings behind men who were being outchanced.

Behind him there is now nothing. Joonas Korpisalo took 31 games and is a Ranger. Jiri Patera has 1 appearance, 7 goals against and a .825, and no measured season to read at all. A club this dependent on 1 goaltender needs him to play 70, and the last 2 years say he plays 55.

What the Scout Says

The most complete player on the roster and the reason the season looked the way it did. Jeremy Swayman is 6 foot 3 and plays big without being a blocker — the depth is aggressive, he challenges the shooter, and he is set before the puck arrives rather than after it. When a play breaks down he is quick enough to make the second and third save, which is what separates a starter from a competent goaltender, and his rebound control is good and improving.

The temperament matters as much as the technique. He is demonstrative and it works for him: he does not sag after a bad goal, and a club that was outshot most nights plays like it believes him. Behind him, Jiri Patera has technique sound enough to keep an organisational goaltender employed and no meaningful evidence at this level, having spent 3 seasons in the American League being ready and not complaining. Take Swayman out of this team and there is nothing there.

The roster

Evidence 21 Full 3 Light 1 No record

No measured season behind one man: Jiri Patera. His page carries an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2025-26.

Jonathan Aspirot

D · Boston Bruins

Plus-30 as an undrafted rookie at 27, and a 5-on-5 record that says he broke even.

Will Borgen

#17

D · Boston Bruins

16th percentile in shot attempts, 20th in expected goals, and 18 minutes a night regardless.

Connor Clifton

#75

D · Boston Bruins

Concedes the outside on purpose, and it worked better than almost anyone noticed.

Michael Eyssimont

#81

C · Boston Bruins

109 shots in 56 games from a fourth-liner, and 8 goals to show for it.

Brendan Gaunce

#50

C · Boston Bruins

214 games spread across 10 seasons, which tells you the shape of it.

Morgan Geekie

#39

C · Boston Bruins

39 goals on 181 shots, which is the single most fragile number in this book.

Tanner Jeannot

#84

LW · Boston Bruins

66 penalty minutes, 6 goals, and a contract that has followed him around.

Henri Jokiharju

#20

D · Boston Bruins

448 games at 27, and still being asked to play the third pair.

Mark Kastelic

C · Boston Bruins

6-4, 140 penalty minutes, and 12 goals — the job as it exists now.

Marat Khusnutdinov

C · Boston Bruins

15 goals on 78 shots, and a role he has grown into faster than expected.

Sean Kuraly

#52

C · Boston Bruins

6 goals, and on the ice for 58 while the puck kept going in at the other end.

Elias Lindholm

#28

C · Boston Bruins

A 650 point career, and the worst underlying season of any regular forward here.

Hampus Lindholm

#27

D · Boston Bruins

The only Boston defenceman whose minutes actually went well.

Mason Lohrei

D · Boston Bruins

6-5 with a puck-mover's instincts and the second-worst results on the blue line.

Charlie McAvoy

#73

D · Boston Bruins

61 points and 24 minutes a night, and the results in those minutes were merely average.

Fraser Minten

#93

C · Boston Bruins

Plus 21 at 21, and the best on-ice rate of any forward on the roster.

Casey Mittelstadt

#11

C · Boston Bruins

The 8th overall pick is now a useful third-line centre, which is not nothing and is not what was promised.

David Pastrnak

#88

RW · Boston Bruins

100 points, and only 29 of them goals, which has never been true of him before.

Jiri Patera

#31

G · Boston Bruins

1 appearance, 7 goals against, and a career that has been almost entirely spent waiting.

JJ Peterka

#10

RW · Boston Bruins

The one arrival whose underlying numbers are better than anything Boston had.

Lukas Reichel

#76

LW · Boston Bruins

A first-round pick at 24 with 170 pounds on him and the numbers running out of patience.

Alex Steeves

#21

C · Boston Bruins

On for 32 goals and 12 against in 458 minutes, which is not a real thing.

Jeremy Swayman

G · Boston Bruins

The reason a mediocre team finished with a good record.

Pavel Zacha

#18

C · Boston Bruins

Also shot better than 20 per cent, and has a better excuse for it than his linemate.

Nikita Zadorov

#91

D · Boston Bruins

6-7, 255 pounds, plus-18, and outplayed the whole way.

How they were used

2025-26 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.