Boston Bruins

What the Quant Says

267 goals, 12th in the league, over a chance-creation rate that was 23rd at 2.508 expected goals per 60 at even strength. Eleven places of daylight between the two, and the daylight is finishing.

At five-on-five the club scored 174 goals against an expectation of 160.5 — a finishing surplus of 13.5 goals, 5th in the league.

David Pastrnak had 110 points and 47 goals on 382 shots. Nobody else was close. Brad Marchand had 67 points at 35, Charlie Coyle 60 with 25 goals on 147 shots, Pavel Zacha 59 and Trent Frederic 40.

The conversion rates are the season. Coyle converted 17.01 per cent, Frederic 14.63, Marchand 14.01 and Zacha 14.19. Four men in a top nine finishing above fourteen per cent is not a repeatable arrangement, and it is why a club 22nd at making chances scored 267 goals.

What the Scout Says

One of the four or five best shooters alive, and a supporting cast that scores from the paint.

David Pastrnak took 382 attempts at a median of 32 feet with 26 per cent inside 20 and converted at 12.3 per cent, and the release from the top of the right circle is the most identifiable skill on this club. He does not need the puck to settle and he does not need space to open. He also threw 63 assists, which is the half people forget.

Everything else is close range. Charlie Coyle shoots from a median of 18 feet with 55 per cent inside 20 and converted 17.01 per cent — the most net-front profile of any regular here. Pavel Zacha shoots from a median of 20 with 50 per cent inside 20, Trent Frederic from 21 with 48 per cent and Morgan Geekie from 25 with 39.

Brad Marchand shoots from a median of 28 feet and converted 14.01 per cent at 35, and the 38 assists say the playmaking has outlasted the legs.

Elias Lindholm was added and takes 40 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 24 — a first-line centre who plays in the middle of the ice, which is what this club has been missing.

What the Quant Says

224 goals against, 6th in the league, over an even-strength suppression rate of 2.525 expected goals against per 60, which is 16th. Good, and ten places worse than the goals column says.

At five-on-five the club conceded 135 goals against an expectation of 162.2 — twenty-seven fewer than the chances predicted, and that is the crease rather than the blue line.

Brandon Carlo's ice went 56-38 against an expectation of 45.23-52.87 — eleven goals scored above expectation and eight fewer conceded, nineteen goals of margin on one defenceman's ice, against a chance share of 45.2 per cent that was the worst of the top four. Charlie McAvoy played 24:51 a night at 52.0 per cent of the chances with 35 assists. Hampus Lindholm was plus-18 at 23:17.

Andrew Peeke's ice went 23-26 against an expectation of 18.78-23.58 in 558 minutes after arriving from Columbus, which is four goals above expectation at one end and two conceded above it at the other, and 558 minutes is too little to read either way.

What the Scout Says

A twenty-four-minute number one, a 6-7 addition, and a second pair that has been together for years.

Charlie McAvoy carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and 24:51 a night with 35 assists and 86 penalty minutes is a defenceman doing every job at once. He plays with an edge and he will answer a cross-check — 383 penalty minutes in 454 games.

Hampus Lindholm's first pass is early and to the correct side of the ice, and he was plus-18. He defends with position rather than force.

Brandon Carlo is 6-5 and 227 and defends the rush with reach almost nobody gets around, and he blocks shots as a matter of course. He has 28 goals in 554 games and there is no offence here at all — the whole value is that the man in front of him does not get to shoot.

Nikita Zadorov is 6-7 and 255 and clears his crease by moving people out of it, on 125 penalty minutes. Mason Lohrei is 6-5 and 218 at 23 and moves the puck well and defends softly. Parker Wotherspoon is 190 pounds and takes 83 per cent of his own attempts from beyond 40 feet.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 27.2 goals better than the chances faced, 2nd in the league. It is the season, and it was a tandem rather than a man.

Jeremy Swayman went 25-10-8 with a .9161, a 2.53 average and 3 shutouts in 44 games. He is 25, he has a career .9186 across 132 games, and he was a fourth-round pick.

Linus Ullmark played 40 games alongside him and was traded to Ottawa in the summer, and the return included Joonas Korpisalo, who went 21-26-4 with an .8896 in 55 games and carries a career .9012 across 276 games.

That exchange is the club's largest decision of the year and it is a downgrade of the position by every number available. A hundred and nine points built on 27.2 goals of goaltending, with the second goaltender replaced by an .8896, is a warning printed on the front of the page.

What the Scout Says

A fourth-round pick with a career .9186, and the man brought in to replace a Vezina winner.

Jeremy Swayman is 6-3 and 195 and plays deep and square, letting the frame take the top of the net rather than chasing the shot out to meet it. The rebound control is very good and it is why a club that was 16th at suppressing chances conceded 135 goals at five-on-five. He tracks pucks through traffic as well as anybody at his age in the league.

He was 111th overall in 2017, out of Maine, and he has a career .9186 across 132 games with 12 shutouts. The lateral recovery is quick for the size.

Joonas Korpisalo is 6-4 and 200 and plays deep, and the numbers are the problem. An .8896 in 55 games behind Ottawa, against a career .9012 across 276 games, is a goaltender in decline rather than one having a bad year. The rebound control is the weakness and has been throughout.

Boston traded a Vezina winner and received this, and the club's entire margin last season was the crease. Everything now rests on Swayman playing sixty games.

What the Quant Says

12th in the league at 7.417 expected goals per 60, over 4:40 a night — the fifth-fewest power-play minutes in hockey. A good unit that barely gets on the ice.

David Pastrnak scored 12 power-play goals, Tyler Johnson 8 before arriving here, Brad Marchand 7, Charlie Coyle 7, Pavel Zacha 6, Elias Lindholm 6 before arriving here and Morgan Geekie 4.

The construction is one man and four supports. Pastrnak takes the puck at the top of the right circle and the whole unit exists to get it to him there — 382 shots is more than anyone else on this roster took by 175. Marchand works the goal line and Coyle stands in the paint at 6-3 and 221.

Twelfth on the fifth-fewest opportunity is a unit doing its job. The opportunity is the problem.

What the Scout Says

One shooter, and four men whose job is to find him.

David Pastrnak sets up at the top of the right circle and everything on this unit is built to put the puck on his stick there. He scored 12 a man up and took 382 shots on the season. A penalty kill knows where it is coming from and it does not help.

Brad Marchand works below the goal line and holds the puck until a killing box commits, and he threw 38 assists. Charlie Coyle stands in the blue paint at 6-3 and 221 and is the screen, and he scored 7.

Charlie McAvoy walks the line from the point and Pavel Zacha plays the bumper spot in the middle of the ice, where 50 per cent of his own attempts come from inside 20 feet.

Elias Lindholm arrives having scored 6 power-play goals and is a second option in the middle the club has not had.

What the Quant Says

7th in the league at 6.509 expected goals against per 60, over 5:30 a game — the third-most shorthanded time in hockey. A very good unit asked to do an enormous amount.

The volume comes from the top of the roster. Charlie McAvoy took 86 penalty minutes in 74 games, Brad Marchand 78 in 82, Trent Frederic 69 in 82 and Hampus Lindholm 63 in 73. In McAvoy's and Frederic's case it is an edge the club wants; in the aggregate it is 5:30 a game.

The killers are good and they are why the rate holds. Brandon Carlo blocks shots and defends the rush at 6-5 with 42 penalty minutes in 76 games. Charlie Coyle wins the draw that begins the shift and scored 1 shorthanded goal. Brad Marchand scored 3 shorthanded goals and has 36 for his career — the most of any player in this edition, by sixteen.

Mark Kastelic was added at 6-4 and 234 after 63 penalty minutes in 63 games in Ottawa, which is more fourth-line weight and not obviously more discipline.

What the Scout Says

A very good unit doing the third-most work in hockey, and a captain who scores shorthanded.

Brad Marchand scored 3 shorthanded goals and has 36 in his career — more than any other player in this edition — and he reads the pass before it is made and he is gone. At 36 the legs are the question and the anticipation is not.

Brandon Carlo blocks shots and closes gaps early at 6-5, and he is the man sent out to protect a lead. Hampus Lindholm is the other half and does not retaliate. Charlie Coyle wins the draw that begins the shift and scored a shorthanded goal himself.

The fouling is upstream. Charlie McAvoy took 86 penalty minutes, Brad Marchand 78 and Trent Frederic 69, and in Marchand's case the fouling is the whole method rather than a mistake. Nikita Zadorov arrives on 125 penalty minutes, which will not reduce 5:30 a game.

Seventh in the league at that workload is a genuine achievement and it is also thirty seconds a night the club does not need to spend.