Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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39

Morgan Geekie

Boston Bruins Center

The 91st percentile in shot velocity and the 4th in distance covered — a hard shot on a man who barely moves.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20CAR2314+32000475.011:47
2020-21CAR36369+1102003010.09:47
2021-22SEA7371522-1618000977.212:36
2022-23SEA6991928+14241038111.110:27
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—180224163+25430321210.411:12

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 19 assists in 69 games for Seattle — 28 points at 10:27 a night, plus-14, on 81 shots, converting at 11.11 per cent, and 24 penalty minutes.

51.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 659 minutes, the 63rd percentile, on a club that made the second round. His ice went 41-29 against an expectation of 28.63-26.87 — twelve goals of scoring above what the chances predicted, which is a fourth line finishing well above its rate and is unlikely to repeat.

The Finesse Game

81 attempts at a median of 24 feet, 41 per cent from inside 20, off a shot measured at 97.9 mph — the 91st percentile in the league.

That velocity on a fourth-line forward is genuinely unusual and it is the reason Boston signed him. 63 points in 180 career games at ten minutes a night is a decent rate, and the club is buying the possibility that the shot plays up the lineup rather than the production, which does not yet exist.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 212 and he uses the frame to protect pucks rather than to hit — 54 penalty minutes in 180 games is very light for the size.

The tracking is unflattering: 21.9 mph at the 29th percentile and 1.69 miles a game at the 4th. Some of that is a ten-minute role and some of it is not. He is not quick and he does not cover much ground, and a bottom-six forward who cannot skate has to score to stay.

The Intangibles

Sixty-seventh overall in 2017 to Carolina, then Seattle in expansion, then Boston as a free agent at 25 — a third-round pick who has been available three times.

He is 25. On a club that has just lost two centres, he is one of several men being asked to be more than his record says he is, and of that group he has the most obvious tool — the shot — and the least evidence that the rest of the game will let him use it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “he uses the frame to protect pucks rather than to hit”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “54 penalty minutes in 180 games is very light for the size”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 659 minutes

Expected goals
51.6%
64th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.7%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 29 against. Expected: 28.6 and 26.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
64th

The numbers rank him 35 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 69 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
39th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.71 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.69 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
97.9 mph
98th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with SEA · 659 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
SEA took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.6% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 659 minutes at five-on-five — 27th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Daniel Sprong50.5%52.9%63.5%
Brandon Tanev55.2%49.4%52.0%
Adam Larsson54.0%49.9%54.0%

50.5% together, 52.9% for him apart and 63.5% for Sprong apart. Sprong was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

113 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.