Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

17

Milan Lucic

Boston Bruins Left Wing

One thousand one hundred and seventy-three games, 1,299 penalty minutes, and a 100 mph shot that produced seven goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08BOS7781927-289104889.112:07
2008-09BOS72172542+171362039717.514:57
2009-10BOS5091120-7440027212.514:21
2010-11BOS79303262+2812150717317.316:35
2011-12BOS81263561+713570114917.417:02
2012-13BOS4672027+875000798.916:55
2013-14BOS80243559+309130515315.717:23
2014-15BOS81182644+138120414112.816:21
2015-16LAK81203555+267920512416.117:14
2016-17EDM82232750-350120317513.117:10
2017-18EDM82102434-12803011476.815:58
2018-19EDM7961420-991200748.113:14
2019-20CGY6881220-654501839.613:20
2020-21CGY56101323-8462007413.513:38
2021-22CGY82101121-9842009510.512:15
2022-23CGY7771219-1343000739.611:18
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—1173233351584+60129948036179713.015:01

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 12 assists in 77 games for Calgary — 19 points at 11:18 a night, minus-13, on 73 shots and 43 penalty minutes.

49.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 846 minutes, the 44th percentile, which for a fourth-line winger at 34 is respectable. His ice went 31-45 against an expectation of 33.16-34.43 — eleven more goals conceded than the chances predicted, which is Calgary’s goaltending rather than his shifts.

The Finesse Game

73 attempts at a median of 22 feet with 47 per cent from inside 20, converting at 9.59 per cent.

The shot is measured at 100.2 mph, the 97th percentile in the league, and it produced seven goals. He has never been a finisher — 233 goals in 1,173 games — and the velocity has always been a curiosity rather than a weapon. What is left of the offensive game is a puck held on the wall until somebody arrives to take it.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 236, and 1,299 career penalty minutes — for a decade he was the most physically intimidating forward in the league and the reason opposing defencemen looked over their shoulder.

The skating has gone and it is not close: 21.9 mph is the 27th percentile, and 1.82 miles a game is the 8th. He is one of the least mobile forwards in the league now. He still hits, he still fights, and he cannot get to anybody who does not wait for him.

The Intangibles

Fiftieth overall in 2006, sixteen seasons, and he is back where he started — the winger on the 2011 Cup team, returning at 35 to a club that has just lost Bergeron and Krejci.

The signing is not really about hockey and Boston has not pretended otherwise. It is a fourth-line contract for a man the building loves, on a roster that has lost most of its identity in one summer. That is a defensible thing to spend a roster spot on once; it is not a plan, and 19 points is what it costs on the ice.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He still hits, he still fights, and he cannot get to anybody who does not wait for him.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “for a decade he was the most physically intimidating forward in the league and the reason opposing defencemen looked over their shoulder”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “What is left of the offensive game is a puck held on the wall until somebody arrives to take it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 846 minutes

Expected goals
49.1%
45th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.7%
84th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 45 against. Expected: 33.2 and 34.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
45th

The numbers rank him 25 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 77 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
38th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.04 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.82 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
100.2 mph
100th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with CGY · 846 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.1% — 6.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 846 minutes at five-on-five — 44th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Trevor Lewis47.1%50.4%54.1%
Nikita Zadorov50.1%48.5%55.6%
Rasmus Andersson43.5%51.8%55.1%

47.1% together, 50.4% for him apart and 54.1% for Lewis apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

105 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.