Boston Bruins

What the Quant Says

255 goals, 15th in the league, off 2.726 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 11th. Good rather than dangerous.

At five-on-five it scored 172 against an expectation of 169.9 — two goals of finishing gained, 18th in the league. For a club with Pastrnak, Marchand and Bergeron on it, that is a surprisingly ordinary line.

David Pastrnak scored 40 goals off 13.97 shots per 60 — the highest rate of any forward in the league — at 100.2 mph, the 99th percentile of velocity. Only 30 per cent of his attempts came from inside the slot, the 2nd percentile. He is a forty-goal scorer who never goes to the net.

Brad Marchand had 32 goals and 48 assists in 70 games at 3.08 even-strength points per 60, the 94th percentile. Patrice Bergeron had 25 and 40 in 73, off 13.25 shots per 60 — the 99th percentile at thirty-six. Taylor Hall had 61 points on 16:25 a night. Jake DeBrusk scored 25 with 8 game-winners.

Craig Smith took 10.51 shots per 60, the 92nd percentile, and converted 8.6 per cent of them, the 25th.

Nick Foligno scored 2 goals on 99 attempts — 2.0 per cent, the 1st percentile — and his ice created 27.28 expected goals and produced 14. That is the single strangest measured season on this roster.

Pavel Zacha arrives from New Jersey with 36 points and an 85th-percentile chance share.

What the Scout Says

Pastrnak is the shot. The release is the hardest in the league and he takes it from the top of the circle rather than the crease — he is not going to the front of the net, he is arriving where the puck will be and firing through traffic hard enough that it does not matter. He holds it a beat longer than the play wants, which is where the giveaways come from and also where the assists do.

Bergeron is the draw. A centre who wins the puck at the dot begins the shift with it, and a shift begun with the puck is most of what a 69 per cent chance share is. The volume of shots at thirty-six is remarkable and the finish is ordinary and has been for a decade.

Marchand is the reason opponents lose their composure. He is not fast, he is not heavy, and he is at both ends of the penalty ledger every night — impossible to play against without fouling, and impossible to play with without occasionally being fouled for.

Hall is still the fastest way this club has of moving a puck a hundred feet, on a third line. DeBrusk shoots from the slot and asked to be traded. Coyle holds a wall better than his hits suggest and is slow. Craig Smith shoots at the 92nd percentile and finishes at the 25th.

What the Quant Says

220 goals against, 4th in the league, off 2.126 expected goals against per 60 at even strength — the lowest rate in hockey. No club allowed fewer chances.

At five-on-five it conceded 144 against an expectation of 132.6, so the eleven-goal gap is the crease and not the structure.

Charlie McAvoy played 24:38 a night at a 61.2 per cent chance share, the 99th percentile among defencemen, and covered 9.06 miles per sixty — the 96th. Matt Grzelcyk, at 5-10 and 180, took 59.1 per cent, the 98th. Mike Reilly took 57.8 per cent, the 96th, and blocked 2.44 shots per 60 — the 2nd percentile at the position.

Brandon Carlo took 52.3 per cent, the lowest of any Boston regular, at 6-5 with 0.96 giveaways per 60. Connor Clifton took 53.7 on 16:04 a night, with 9.71 hits per 60 at the 95th percentile and a 23.0 mph top speed at the 94th.

Hampus Lindholm arrived in March for a first-round pick, two seconds and two players, and signed for eight years. Jamie Drysdale beside him in Anaheim took 49.5 per cent of the expected goals; apart from him, 44.8.

With McAvoy out until December, the top pair is Lindholm and Carlo, and behind them are a 30-year-old at the 4th percentile of top speed and a 36-year-old at the 6th percentile of ground covered.

What the Scout Says

McAvoy is the defenceman. He closes a gap early and takes the puck rather than the man, he carries out through people, and nobody at the position covers more ground. His absence until December is the single most expensive thing on this page.

Grzelcyk is the other kind. Five-ten, no shot, no physical game, and the first pass is already decided before the puck arrives — the sort of player analytics departments fight over and coaches quietly scratch in a playoff series. Boston has done both.

Carlo is 6-5 and the reach is the method: he takes the puck at the blue line without leaving his feet or his position, and he makes the simple play every time. Lindholm goes back for pucks under pressure and the first pass beats the forecheck rather than merely surviving it, and for a 6-4 defenceman he does very little with his body.

Reilly activates and does not block. Forbort has no feet and a long stick and kills three minutes a night. Clifton is small, quick and nasty, and plays considerably bigger than he is. Stralman is thirty-six and cannot get there any more.

What the Quant Says

Boston's goaltending came in 11.4 goals worse than the chances it faced, 22nd in the league — and both goaltenders posted a save percentage above .913.

Linus Ullmark went 26-10-2 with a .9167 and a 2.45 in 41 games, facing 1,140 shots. Jeremy Swayman went 23-14-3 with a .9136 and a 2.41 in 41, facing 1,111, with 3 shutouts at twenty-three.

Exactly 41 games each. No club in hockey split a net more evenly.

That is the whole difficulty. Boston allowed the lowest rate of expected goals against at even strength in the league, and 28 shots a night. Measured against a league-average crease those save percentages are respectable; measured against the chances actually faced, the club's goaltending was below average, and the eleven-goal gap is the clearest weakness on a team that finished 4th in goals against.

Ullmark's career line across 158 games is a .9134 and Swayman's across 51 is a .9197. Neither number moved much last season, which suggests the environment rather than either goaltender did the work.

Tuukka Rask played 4 games and retired. At some point one of these two will be traded so that the other can be found out.

What the Scout Says

Ullmark is a big, upright, positional goaltender who covers the net by being in front of it rather than by reaching, and he handles the puck better than most goaltenders his size — a genuine third defenceman on a retrieval, which matters behind a club that wants to leave its own end quickly.

Swayman is more economical and considerably younger: compact, square, and he does not chase the puck across his crease. At twenty-three he has never had a bad month at this level and has also never had to carry one on his own.

Neither has been tested. Forty-one games each, twenty-eight shots a night, and the best chance suppression in hockey in front of them. The one thing the split guarantees is that Boston still does not know which of the two it has.

What the Quant Says

11th in the league at 6.963 expected goals per 60, over 4:54 a night. Good, not feared.

David Pastrnak scored 15 power-play goals, Patrice Bergeron 8, Brad Marchand 7, Taylor Hall 7, Charlie McAvoy 4, Jake DeBrusk 3 and Charlie Coyle 3, with Hampus Lindholm 1 and Pavel Zacha 4 in New Jersey.

Pastrnak took 3:33 a night of it, the 95th percentile among forwards, McAvoy 3:07, the 95th among defencemen, and Marchand 3:25, the 94th. The unit is three men and everybody knows which three.

34 per cent of Pastrnak's points came on the power play, 35 per cent of Bergeron's, 34 per cent of Marchand's and 38 per cent of McAvoy's. Take those four off it and there is nothing behind them: Matt Grzelcyk is the only other man on this roster who took more than 1:30 a night of it.

Two of the four are injured until December. A power play that ran through Marchand's half-wall and McAvoy's blue line has to be rebuilt around Pastrnak and Krejci for two months, and that is a different unit entirely.

What the Scout Says

Pastrnak's one-timer from the left circle is a set play the whole league knows about and cannot stop, and it is the unit.

McAvoy runs it from the blue line with the fastest first decision on the roster. Marchand works the half-wall and holds until somebody commits. Bergeron takes the draw and stands where a rebound goes. Hall is the fourth option and has 7 power-play goals to show for it.

Take away Marchand and McAvoy for two months and what remains is Pastrnak, Bergeron, Krejci and a blue line whose next-best option is Matt Grzelcyk — a defenceman with 5 per cent of his shots from inside the slot and no interest in walking the line.

What the Quant Says

5th in the league at 5.685 expected goals against per 60, over 5:26 a night — the fourth-most shorthanded minutes of any club, and the fifth-best results.

Derek Forbort killed 3:09 a night, the 97th percentile among defencemen, and Brandon Carlo 2:44, the 89th. Anton Stralman arrives having killed 2:56, the 95th, on the worst penalty kill in hockey.

Tomas Nosek killed 1:49 a night, the 85th percentile among forwards, with Patrice Bergeron at 1:41, Brad Marchand at 1:38 and Charlie Coyle at 1:38 — a club that puts three of its four best forwards on the kill.

Forbort's top speed is 20.7 mph, the 4th percentile among defencemen, and he covers 7.83 miles per sixty, also the 4th. A defenceman with no feet and a long stick kills three minutes a night here because the structure in front of him is the best in the league, and it is worth asking what happens to him if it slips.

Trent Frederic takes 1.80 penalties per 60, the 96th percentile, and Nick Foligno 1.73, the 95th. Boston's fourth line puts it shorthanded more than anybody's, and the kill has been good enough that nobody has minded.

What the Scout Says

Forbort and Carlo are the pair, and neither can skate. Both are long, both are early with the stick, and both take away the pass rather than chasing the puck — which works, exactly as long as the five-on-five structure in front of them keeps the entries to the outside.

Nosek is the fourth-line centre who wins the defensive draw and gets it out. Bergeron, Marchand and Coyle all kill, which is unusual: most clubs cannot afford to put their best forwards there.

Stralman arrives as a third option and killed three minutes a night on the worst unit in hockey last season, which is the sort of line on a résumé that needs reading carefully.

The problem is not the kill. It is the fourth line putting the club on it — Frederic and Foligno are two of the most penalised forwards in the league.