Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

4

Carson Soucy

Vancouver Canucks Defense

A top speed in the second percentile, and sixty-two shots from the point without a goal.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18MIN3000-2200040.014:51
2019-20MIN557714+16180116111.515:38
2020-21MIN5011617+2251001472.115:17
2021-22SEA64101121+7470119710.317:40
2022-23SEA7831316+1868000873.516:18
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—250214768+611860232967.116:17

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 13 assists in 78 games — 16 points — at 16:18 a night for Seattle. Plus-18, 87 shots at 3.4 per cent, 68 penalty minutes.

51.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,127 minutes, the 54th percentile, with his ice at 52-37 against an expectation of 44.18-42.25 — eight more goals for and five fewer against than the chances called for, which is where the plus-18 comes from rather than from anything he did.

He started 54.8 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 71st percentile: 323 attacking draws against 266 defensive ones. Sheltered third-pair minutes on a good club.

The Finesse Game

87 shots at a median of 52 feet, with 75 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty and 5 per cent from inside twenty.

Beyond forty feet: 62 shots on goal and no goals. From twenty to forty: 19 shots and two goals, 10.53 per cent, above the league rate for defencemen of 8.83. Inside twenty: four shots and one goal.

Sixty-two shots on goal from the point and nothing at all, on a 22.3 per cent slap share and a shot measured at 94.2 mph, the 73rd percentile.

21 goals in 250 career games at 7.1 per cent is a better rate than that suggests, and ten of them came in 2021-22 on 97 shots — which is the season that got him this contract.

130 tracked attempts, 77 of them wrist shots. There is nothing in the offensive half of the file to build on.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 211 pounds, with 68 penalty minutes in 78 games and 186 in 250 career games.

A top speed of 20.8 mph — the 2nd percentile — and 0.2 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 5th. He covers 2.39 miles a game, the 36th.

That is one of the slowest measured skaters in this edition, and it is the fact the file is built around. Sixteen minutes a night is the ceiling those feet allow.

He clears the front of his net and he is very hard to move out of it, which at 6-4 is the trade the club is making.

He is punishing along the wall, and 68 penalty minutes in a third-pair role is a high rate.

He is beaten wide by anybody quick and he knows it, so he plays inside-out and gives up the outside lane on purpose.

The Intangibles

A hundred and thirty-seventh overall in 2013, the fifth round, five seasons, 250 games, 68 points across Minnesota and Seattle.

21 goals and 47 assists, and a plus-61 in 250 games — a rate nothing else in his record explains.

He is twenty-nine, signed by a club that finished twenty-fourth in chance share to play its second pair, having played third-pair minutes on a club that finished eleventh.

That is the whole risk in one sentence. A 54th-percentile chance share out of sheltered starts behind a good team is not evidence that he can take harder minutes behind a worse one, and the second-percentile top speed says what happens if he is asked to.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He clears the front of his net and he is very hard to move out of it, which at 6-4 is the trade the club is making.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is punishing along the wall, and 68 penalty minutes in a third-pair role is a high rate.”

  • edgeshe lacks it· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “He is beaten wide by anybody quick and he knows it, so he plays inside-out and gives up the outside lane on purpose.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,127 minutes

Expected goals
51.1%
60th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.8%
69th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 37 against. Expected: 44.2 and 42.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
60th

The numbers rank him 31 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 78 games

Top speed
20.8 mph
24th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.21 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.2 mph
64th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with SEA · 1127 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
SEA took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.1% — 1.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,127 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Will Borgen47.9%53.5%51.7%
Justin Schultz48.6%52.6%50.6%
Yanni Gourde51.7%50.8%54.1%

47.9% together, 53.5% for him apart and 51.7% for Borgen apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

128 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.