Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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72

Anthony Beauvillier

Vancouver Canucks Right Wing

Eighty-two games, forty points, and the player Vancouver got for its captain.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NYI6691524+1100021018.913:01
2017-18NYI71211536+21630213215.914:32
2018-19NYI81181028+1810415611.514:39
2019-20NYI68182139-111531313213.617:16
2020-21NYI47151328+151230510913.816:24
2021-22NYI75122234-10125011547.816:50
2022-23NYI/VAN82182240-102430517610.216:16
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—490111118229-12971812296011.615:33

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

18 goals and 22 assists in 82 games — 40 points — at 16:16 a night between the Islanders and Vancouver. Minus-10, 176 shots at 10.2 per cent, three on the power play, five game-winners, 24 penalty minutes.

40 points is a career high by one, in his seventh season.

49.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,132 minutes, the 42nd percentile, with his ice at 49-56 against an expectation of 46.99-47.73 — the chances came out even and the goals did not.

He started 56 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 78th percentile: 341 attacking draws against 268 defensive ones. Soft minutes, and a 42nd-percentile chance share out of them.

He arrived in the trade that sent Bo Horvat to Long Island, which is the context every reader will bring to the file.

The Finesse Game

176 shots at a median of 23 feet, with 41 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty.

Inside twenty feet: 72 shots on goal and 10 goals — 13.89 per cent, below the league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 79 shots and six goals, 7.59 against a league rate of 11.05. Beyond forty: 24 shots and two goals, 8.33.

Below the rate from both of the bands that carry the volume, on a hundred and fifty-one shots on goal. A career 11.6 per cent across 490 games is a fraction under what the league manages from where he shoots.

233 tracked attempts, 131 of them wrist shots and 27 tip-ins, an 11.6 per cent share. 89.3 mph at the 40th percentile — an ordinary shot.

111 goals and 118 assists in 490 games is the record of a useful second-line winger who has never had a season above forty points.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 181 pounds, with 24 penalty minutes in 82 games and 97 in 490 career games — a low rate.

1.7 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game at the 79th percentile, at a top speed of 22.5 mph, the 63rd, on 2.66 miles a game at the 57th. Genuinely quick, and the best part of the athletic file.

He gets to the net and takes his hits there, which the 27 tip-ins and a 23-foot median record between them.

He is not physical and does not forecheck hard enough to change a shift, which at 181 pounds on the third line is the limit of what the role produces.

The Intangibles

Twenty-eighth overall in 2015, seven seasons, 490 games, 229 points across the Islanders and Vancouver.

111 goals and 118 assists, and a minus-12.

He is twenty-six, on a club that traded its captain to get him and a first-round pick.

What the file describes is a perfectly serviceable middle-six winger whose seventh season was his best and whose best is forty points. Nothing in it is bad. Nothing in it is what a club gets for a captain either, and that is the sentence the trade will be judged on.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He gets to the net and takes his hits there, which the 27 tip-ins and a 23-foot median record between them.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is not physical and does not forecheck hard enough to change a shift, which at 181 pounds on the third line is the limit of what the role produces.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,132 minutes

Expected goals
49.6%
49th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.7%
43rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 56 against. Expected: 47.0 and 47.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
49th

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
69th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.70 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.66 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.3 mph
63rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with NYI · 676 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
VAN took 47.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.6% — 2.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
1,132 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brock Nelson46.7%51.9%52.1%
Anders Lee51.4%48.6%55.2%
Elias Pettersson54.5%47.9%52.5%

46.7% together, 51.9% for him apart and 52.1% for Nelson apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

232 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.