Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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71

Tyson Foerster

Philadelphia Flyers Right Wing

Twenty goals at 22, on the 86th percentile of chances.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23PHI8347+280001520.016:34
2023-24PHI7720133303241216712.017:16
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—85231740+24041218212.617:12

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

77 games, 20 goals and 13 assists for 33 points, 4 on the power play, 1 shorthanded, 32 penalty minutes, 17:16 a night and even, with 2 game-winners. He took 54.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,105 minutes, the 86th percentile, and his ice went 48-42 against an expectation of 45.32-37.23.

Three goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and five more conceded than they called for. Twenty goals in a first full season, at 22, on the fourth-best chance share among the club’s forwards.

The Finesse Game

238 attempts at a median of 29 feet with 32 per cent of them from inside twenty, 167 of those on goal, converted at 12.0 per cent against a career 12.64 across 182 shots.

The shot is the whole of the game and it is a genuine one — heavy, quick off the blade and accurate from the circles. 17 career assists in 85 games says the passing has not arrived and may not need to.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 215 and took 32 penalty minutes.

40 career penalty minutes in 85 games. He is thick through the chest and holds his ground on the wall and in front of the net, which is where four power-play goals came from on the worst power play in the league. The skating is the part that has to improve.

The Intangibles

Twenty-third overall in 2020, two seasons, 40 points in 85 games and a career plus-2 on a club that has been outscored.

Twenty goals and an 86th percentile chance share in a first full season is as good a rookie line as anything in this edition that did not come with a top-five pick attached.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    6 of his 20 goals late or in overtime, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He is thick through the chest and holds his ground on the wall and in front of the net, which is where four power-play goals came from on the worst power play in the league.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “The shot is the whole of the game and it is a genuine one — heavy, quick off the blade and accurate from the circles.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,105 minutes

Expected goals
54.9%
87th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.3%
86th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 48 for, 42 against. Expected: 45.3 and 37.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
87th

The numbers rank him 44 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 77 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
29th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.83 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.76 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.9 mph
91st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1105 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
PHI took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.9% — 2.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,105 minutes at five-on-five — 73rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Travis Konecny58.5%52.6%51.0%
Travis Sanheim58.4%52.8%50.6%
Cam York59.7%52.3%49.9%

58.5% together, 52.6% for him apart and 51.0% for Konecny apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

238 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 32% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.