Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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74

Owen Tippett

Philadelphia Flyers Right Wing

Three hundred and ninety-two attempts and 289 shots on goal, the most on the club, for 28 goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18FLA7101-60000175.911:07
2020-21FLA4571118-56202868.111:29
2021-22FLA/PHI63101121-2121011267.913:25
2022-23PHI77272249-171680423111.717:26
2023-24PHI78282553-5125042899.716:35
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—2707369142-3546160117499.815:06

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

78 games, 28 goals and 25 assists for 53 points, 5 on the power play, 12 penalty minutes, 16:35 a night and minus-5, with 4 game-winners. He took 52.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,041 minutes, the 69th percentile, and his ice went 51-54 against an expectation of 46.12-42.30.

Five goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and twelve more conceded than they called for. Twenty-eight goals and 53 points are both career highs, on sixteen and a half minutes a night.

The Finesse Game

392 attempts at a median of 32 feet with 25 per cent of them from inside twenty and 29 per cent from beyond forty, 289 of those on goal — the most on the club — converted at 9.7 per cent against a career 9.75 across 749 shots.

He shoots more than anybody on this roster and from further out than anybody who scores. The skating is the real weapon: he arrives at the offensive blue line at speed and beats defencemen wide, and everything he produces comes out of that first stride. 69 career assists in 270 games.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 210 and took 12 penalty minutes.

46 career penalty minutes in 270 games is one of the lowest rates on the roster. He is a large winger who plays a light game — he does not forecheck by contact, does not win the wall and is not the man in front of the net on a power play.

The Intangibles

Tenth overall in 2017 by Florida, five seasons, two organisations, 142 points in 270 games and a career minus-35.

He was a top-ten pick who played 52 games across his first two seasons and has scored 55 goals in his last two. Twenty-eight goals on a club with the worst power play in the league is a real number.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    30.1% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 90th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.15 penalty minutes a game over 78, 9th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “The skating is the real weapon: he arrives at the offensive blue line at speed and beats defencemen wide, and everything he produces comes out of that first stride.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,041 minutes

Expected goals
52.2%
69th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.9%
71st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 54 against. Expected: 46.1 and 42.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
35th
Numbers
69th

The numbers rank him 34 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 78 games

Top speed
24.2 mph
100th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
3.51 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.72 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
100.0 mph
99th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1041 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
PHI took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.2% — 0.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,041 minutes at five-on-five — 64th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Morgan Frost56.3%49.3%53.8%
Cam York52.3%52.1%52.5%
Travis Sanheim49.0%54.0%54.1%

56.3% together, 49.3% for him apart and 53.8% for Frost apart. He was worse away from Frost, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Frost did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

392 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 27 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 26% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 29% from beyond forty.