This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Noah Cates
Philadelphia Flyers Left Wing
The 98th percentile of chances, and outscored 24-33 inside it.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | PHI | 16 | 5 | 4 | 9 | +4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 21.7 | 13:15 |
| 2022-23 | PHI | 82 | 13 | 25 | 38 | +3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 107 | 12.2 | 17:46 |
| 2023-24 | PHI | 59 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 78 | 7.7 | 13:48 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 157 | 24 | 41 | 65 | -1 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 208 | 11.5 | 15:49 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
59 games, 6 goals and 12 assists for 18 points, no penalty minutes at all, 13:48 a night and minus-8, with 1 game-winner. He took 59.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 680 minutes — the 98th percentile and the best chance share of anybody on the club by two and a half points — and his ice went 24-33 against an expectation of 30.15-20.37.
Six goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and thirteen more conceded than they called for. A 98th percentile chance share that came out minus-9 in goals is the single strangest line in this chapter.
The Finesse Game
110 attempts at a median of 25 feet with 39 per cent of them from inside twenty, 78 of those on goal, converted at 7.7 per cent against a career 11.54 across 208 shots.
41 career assists in 157 games. The 38-point season two years ago is what the offence is capable of and six goals is what it produced; a rate four points below his own career mark is most of the difference. Nothing about the shot is dangerous on its own.
The Physical Game
He is 6-2 and 194 and took no penalty minutes in 59 games.
16 career penalty minutes in 157 games, and 59 of them last season without a single one. He plays a positional defensive game and takes pucks away with his stick rather than his body; a forward who takes no penalties at all is either doing something remarkable or avoiding contact, and the 98th percentile says it is the first.
The Intangibles
137th overall in 2017, three seasons, 65 points in 157 games and a career minus-1.
A fifth-round pick who drove play better than anybody on the roster and finished minus-8. He is 25, his club took 59.7 per cent of the chances when he was on the ice, and nothing came of it.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 680 minutes
- Expected goals
- 59.7%
- 98th pct
- Shot attempts
- 55.3%
- 90th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 24 for, 33 against. Expected: 30.1 and 20.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 41 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 437 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 67 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 680 minutes at five-on-five
- Joel Farabee23%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- PHI took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.7% — 7.1 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 680 minutes at five-on-five — 30th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Sanheim | 58.7% | 60.4% | 51.4% |
| Garnet Hathaway | 63.1% | 57.9% | 52.6% |
| Ryan Poehling | 63.6% | 57.2% | 51.7% |
58.7% together, 60.4% for him apart and 51.4% for Sanheim apart. Sanheim was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Sanheim than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
110 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.