New York Rangers

What the Quant Says

256 goals and 14th in the league at creating chances at even strength at 2.507 expected goals per 60, which is an ordinary figure on a roster that is not paid to be ordinary.

Artemi Panarin had 89 points and 37 goals on 237 shots at 33. J.T. Miller produced 70 points in 72 games across two clubs, Mika Zibanejad 62 with 7 of his 20 goals on the power play, and Vincent Trocheck 26 goals with 7 game-winners and 6 shorthanded goals at 21:06 a night. Will Cuylle scored 20 at 23 on a third line.

Finishing was 10th in the league, 8.9 goals better than expectation. The distribution is where it turns strange: Panarin's ice was outscored 61-54 at five-on-five against an expectation of 54.19-52.74, and Alexis Lafrenière's 56-62 against 50.94-52.48. Two men who played most of the season together carry a thirty-six-goal hole between them that the chances say neither of them dug.

What the Scout Says

Two of the most skilled forwards in the league, a captain's worth of competitiveness bought in January, and a bottom six built out of size.

Artemi Panarin is the best puck-handler in this chapter — he holds it until a defenceman commits — and only 12 per cent of his attempts come from inside 20 feet, because he beats a goaltender by changing the angle rather than by getting closer. J.T. Miller lives below the goal line, waits for a second man, and takes 37 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet; he goes to the net and arrives with the puck.

Vincent Trocheck has removed the perimeter from his game entirely — 43 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 22 — and he wins the draw that starts the shift. Mika Zibanejad's one-timer from the left circle is intact and the even-strength scoring around it is not; he takes the punishment and does not answer it, on 22 penalty minutes in 82 games.

Underneath it is heavy and it is young. Will Cuylle is first in on the forecheck and finishes every check available to him. Alexis Lafrenière takes the hit to make the play and is neither an agitator nor a man who avoids contact. Adam Edstrom is 6-7 and immovable in front of a net and cannot forecheck at NHL pace. Matt Rempe is 6-9 and 261 and takes liberties and knows exactly where the line is. Brett Berard is 5-9 and plays as though he does not know it.

What the Quant Says

255 goals against and 28th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.778 per 60, underneath a 20th-ranked shot-attempt share. They had the puck about as often as an average club and gave up far better chances than one.

Adam Fox posted a 53.5 per cent chance share — the 82nd percentile — at 23:15 a night, and the club was outscored 60-45 with him on the ice against an expectation of 57.65-48.85. Below him nobody reached the 20th percentile: Will Borgen 16th, Braden Schneider 16th, Carson Soucy 17th, Urho Vaakanainen 15th.

The shot charts say what kind of blue line this was. Borgen took 81 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet, Vaakanainen 79, Soucy 78 and Schneider 71 — four defencemen who arrive at the line, release, and go no further, on a club that finished 28th at chance quality against.

Jacob Trouba was traded to Anaheim in December and Ryan Lindgren at the deadline. K'Andre Miller was traded to Carolina in the summer. Vladislav Gavrikov was signed out of Los Angeles to replace all three.

What the Scout Says

One excellent small defenceman, one heavy man bought to stand next to him, and four men who take three quarters of their shots from beyond 40 feet.

Adam Fox defends by anticipation and stick position, gets to the spot before the puck does, and is very rarely beaten wide; he does not clear his crease and never has, and at 185 pounds he never will. That has been the unanswered question on this blue line for six years.

Vladislav Gavrikov is the answer to it. He defends the front of his own net by force, he is difficult to move once he has decided where to stand, and he closes a rush by stepping up rather than by backing off. The puck game is deliberately small — the short correct first pass, off the stick early — and it is not a weakness.

Behind them it is honest and limited. Will Borgen finishes checks and blocks shots and cannot skate away from a mistake. Braden Schneider hits harder than anybody here and does not retaliate and does not take the stick foul when he is beaten, on 18 penalty minutes in 80 games. Carson Soucy is 6-4 and clears a crease and plays with an edge that crosses the line — 244 penalty minutes in 365 career games. Urho Vaakanainen is neither heavy nor soft and moves the puck quickly under pressure.

What the Quant Says

Igor Shesterkin went 27-29-5 with a .9046 and 6 shutouts across 61 games, facing 1,751 shots — among the heaviest workloads in the league. The club's goaltending came in 9.8 goals better than the chances faced, 10th in the league.

It is the worst save percentage of his career and it arrived in the first season of an eight-year extension signed in December that made him the highest-paid goaltender in the history of the league. A .9046 with 6 shutouts is an unusual shape — the bad nights were bad and the good ones were closed — and it was posted behind a defence that was 28th at suppressing chances.

Jonathan Quick went 11-7-2 with an .8935 and 3 shutouts in 24 games at 39. Three shutouts on that save percentage is the same volatility one rung down.

What the Scout Says

The best player in this chapter and the reason the season stayed alive as long as it did.

Igor Shesterkin is 6-1 and 199 and the most technically complete goaltender here — square almost without exception, reading the play across the slot before it arrives, never travelling further out than the shot requires. The depth management is the signature and the glove is excellent. The rebound control is the one ordinary part of it, and in front of a club conceding chances at the 28th-ranked rate it was punished more often than it would be anywhere else. He has twice carried a bad defensive club further than it deserved to go.

Jonathan Quick plays deep and drops early and recovers by athleticism rather than by position, which at 39 means a second chance across the crease is a goal more often than it used to be; the rebound control is the weakness and always has been. The puck-handling is the best on this roster and is a genuine tactical asset behind a defence that gets forechecked.

Spencer Martin covers the top of the net by standing in it and is beaten low and across, and the depth in his crease is inconsistent. He is the emergency.

What the Quant Says

13th in the league at 7.382 expected goals per 60, over 4:25 a night. Above average, and a long way from what this unit was two years ago.

Panarin scored 8 power-play goals, Zibanejad 7, Trocheck 5 and Miller 5. The construction is Zibanejad's one-timer from the left circle, Panarin at the top of the umbrella, Fox at the point and Trocheck in the paint — the same shape that has been run here for six seasons, with the personnel a year older each time.

It is not the problem with this club and it is no longer the answer to it either.

What the Scout Says

The one part of the roster that has not changed in six years, which is the compliment and the complaint.

Artemi Panarin is the reason it works: he holds the puck at the top of the umbrella until somebody commits, and a killing box that does not commit concedes the seam. Mika Zibanejad's one-timer from the left circle still has to be respected the instant the puck reaches him. Adam Fox distributes from the point as well as any defenceman in the league.

Vincent Trocheck does the least replaceable job on it — he stands in the paint at 5-11 and 187 against men forty pounds heavier and does not get moved off a puck. Adam Edstrom is the alternative and he is 6-7 and 232, a body a defenceman has to commit a penalty to shift, and he shoots what arrives in front of him.

J.T. Miller is the addition that changes the shape, because he works below the goal line and this unit has spent six years running everything above it.

What the Quant Says

18th in the league at 7.01 expected goals against per 60, over 4:59 a game — among the most shorthanded time in hockey. A below-average unit asked to do an above-average amount of work.

The volume is the club's own doing. Matt Rempe took 67 penalty minutes in 42 games at eight and a half minutes a night, Sam Carrick 58 in 80, J.T. Miller 55 in 72, Carson Soucy 46 in 75, Trocheck 44 and Will Borgen 42. Six men over forty on a roster that could not afford the time.

The one genuine asset is at the other end of it: Trocheck's 6 shorthanded goals were among the most in the league, which is a scoring threat rather than a defensive one and does not fix a rate of 7.09.

What the Scout Says

A below-average unit on the most shorthanded time in the league, with the personnel to be better than it was.

Vincent Trocheck takes the hardest defensive draws on the roster and scored 6 shorthanded goals doing it, which is a specific and unusual skill. Sam Carrick forechecks hard, blocks shots and answers for a teammate. Justin Dowling is in the correct place, makes the simple play, and does not turn it over in his own end. Brett Berard kills penalties and irritates people.

On the blue line it is Gavrikov and Borgen doing the work in front of the net, with Soucy the man who goes in when a series turns nasty.

And then the volume, which is the roster's own fault. Rempe took 67 penalty minutes in 42 games, Carrick 58 in 80, Miller 55 in 72, Soucy 46 in 75, Trocheck 44 and Borgen 42. A club that is 28th at suppressing chances at even strength cannot also be among the most shorthanded in the league, and this one was both.