New York Rangers

What the Quant Says

282 goals, 6th in the league, on the 13th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.592 expected goals per 60. The gap between those two is where this whole chapter lives.

At five-on-five New York took 50.1 per cent of the shot attempts, 19th, and 50.1 per cent of the expected goals, 18th. Exactly even, on both counts, in the middle of the league.

And it scored 166 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 166 — a shortfall of nothing at all, 20th in the league. Not above average at finishing, not below. This is the most precisely average five-on-five attack in the edition and it belonged to the Presidents' Trophy winner.

The power play was 9th at 7.799 expected goals per 60. That is where the sixth-place scoring comes from.

Artemi Panarin had 49 goals and 71 assists for 120 points, fourth in the league, on 303 shots at 16.2 per cent. Chris Kreider scored 39, eighteen of them on the power play — tied fifth in the league. Vincent Trocheck had 77 points, Chris Kreider 75, Adam Fox 73 in 72 games and Mika Zibanejad 72.

What the Scout Says

A hundred and twenty points from one man and a very steep drop after four.

Artemi Panarin took 303 shots at a median of 34 feet and converted 16.2 per cent, against a career 14.59 across 1,816 shots. He is 6-0 and 176 and has 516 career assists in 672 games. Everything the offence does starts with him holding the puck on the half-wall until a defender commits.

Chris Kreider took 246 shots at a median of 15 feet, with 59 per cent from inside twenty, converting 15.9 per cent against a career 15.14. He is 6-3 and 232 and has 304 career goals, most of them from the blue paint on a power play.

Vincent Trocheck is 5-11 and had 77 points at 30. Mika Zibanejad has 294 goals in 848 games and shoots from thirty-four feet. Alexis Lafreniere scored 28 at 22 on a 91st-percentile chance share, which is the first real evidence a first-overall pick produced in four seasons.

What the Quant Says

New York allowed 2.563 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 18th in the league, and conceded 229 goals, 7th. Again the gap is special teams.

At five-on-five it conceded 165 goals against an expectation of 165.2. Level to within a fifth of a goal across eighty-two games. The seventh-place goals-against column is the fourth-best penalty kill in hockey, not the defending.

Adam Fox is 5-11 and 185 pounds and played 23:27 a night, with 17 goals and 56 assists in 72 games and a plus-21. His ice went 56-38 against an expectation of 56.83-47.28 — level at one end and nine fewer conceded than the chances called for at the other.

K'Andre Miller is 6-5 and played 21:34 with his ice at 56-68, the worst goal differential on the club. Jacob Trouba took 21:15 and 73 penalty minutes at 30, with his ice at 44-55. Ryan Lindgren was plus-22 over 1,244 minutes and Braden Schneider played all 82 games at 23.

Five of the six regulars sit between 47.1 and 49.2 per cent of the chances, and Adam Fox is at 54.6. It is a very even, very unspectacular blue line with one exceptional man on it.

What the Scout Says

A 5-11 Norris winner and five men who take twenty minutes each.

Adam Fox is 5-11 and 185 pounds and played 23:27 a night. 255 career assists in 357 games and a career plus-108. Fourteen per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet, which for a defenceman is unusually aggressive, and the whole of the game is the first pass and the walk along the line. He does not defend with contact and does not need to.

K'Andre Miller is 6-5 and 210 and skates as well as anybody that size in the league, with 105 points in 294 games at 24. Jacob Trouba is 6-3 and 212 with 604 career penalty minutes and hits harder than anybody on the roster. Ryan Lindgren is 6-0 and 194, blocks everything, and has a career plus-99 in 333 games.

Braden Schneider is 6-3 and 23 and played all 82. Zac Jones is 24 and played 31. Chad Ruhwedel is 34, undrafted, and took 12:42 in 52 games.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 0.2 goals better than the chances it faced, 15th in the league. On the Presidents' Trophy winner. Exactly average, like everything else here at five-on-five.

Igor Shesterkin went 36-17-2 with a .9122 and a 2.58 in 55 games, facing 1,606 shots, with 4 shutouts. He is 28, a fourth-round pick, and his career line across 213 games is a .9209 with 15 shutouts. Thirty-six wins is a very large number and the save percentage underneath it was nine points below his own standard.

Jonathan Quick went 18-6-2 with a .9105 and a 2.62 in 27 games, facing 771, with 2 shutouts. He is 38, has 780 games, 393 wins and 60 shutouts, and a career .9111. An 18-6-2 record at 38 is a club record as much as a goaltender's.

Fifty-four wins between two men, and 0.2 goals of value over the chances they faced. Both of those are true and the second is the one that matters.

What the Scout Says

Thirty-six wins, a .9122, and 0.2 goals of value over the chances faced.

Igor Shesterkin is 6-1 and 199 and plays an aggressive, athletic game, challenging shooters at the top of the crease and recovering across it faster than almost anybody in the league. Fifteen career shutouts in 213 games at a career .9209. The .9122 last season was the worst of his five and he still won thirty-six.

He handles the puck well and the rebound control is the part that varies; the aggressive depth means more loose pucks than a deeper goaltender allows. He tracks through traffic as well as anybody.

Jonathan Quick is 6-1 and 219 and 38 years old, with 780 games, 393 wins, 60 shutouts and two Stanley Cups in Los Angeles. He plays deep and square now, which is not how he played at 25, and an .9105 in 27 games at that age is a good season.

Fifty-four wins between them and a club goaltending figure of plus-0.2. Both numbers describe the same season and only one of them made the standings.

What the Quant Says

8th in the league at 7.799 expected goals per 60, over 4:50 a night, which is the twenty-second-most power-play time in hockey. A very good rate on below-average volume.

Chris Kreider scored 18 power-play goals, tied fifth in the league, and has 110 in 815 career games. Mika Zibanejad scored 12 and has 113 in 848. Artemi Panarin scored 11 and has 67 in 672. Vincent Trocheck scored 11 and Adam Fox 6 from the point.

Two men with more than a hundred and ten career power-play goals on the same unit is unusual, and the arrangement is unmistakable: Zibanejad shoots from the left circle, Kreider stands in the blue paint and tips it, Panarin holds it on the half-wall until somebody moves. It has worked for six years.

What the Scout Says

Eighth by rate on the twenty-second-most time, and the reason this club scored 282 goals.

Chris Kreider has 110 career power-play goals in 815 games and scored 18 last season, tied fifth in the league. He stands in the blue paint at 6-3 and 232 and tips a puck that somebody else shot, and he has been doing exactly that for twelve seasons.

Mika Zibanejad has 113 career power-play goals in 848 games — the one-timer from the left circle that Kreider deflects. Artemi Panarin runs it from the half-wall with 67 career power-play goals of his own. Vincent Trocheck's 11 came from the slot and Adam Fox's 6 from the point.

Five men, three of whom have more than sixty career power-play goals, arranged in the same shape since 2019. It is the most established unit in this edition.

What the Quant Says

3rd in the league at 6.198 expected goals against per 60, over 5:04 a night, the twelfth-most shorthanded time in hockey. Above-average volume and a genuinely excellent rate.

With the power play at ninth, the special teams are the whole margin. This club was plus-1 at five-on-five and plus-40 away from it — the second-largest such margin in the league, behind Tampa Bay, who were minus-18 at even strength.

Mika Zibanejad has 13 career shorthanded goals in 848 games and scored 2 last season. Chris Kreider has 9 in 815 and scored 2. Vincent Trocheck has 8 in 719 and Jacob Trouba 4 in 748. Adam Fox scored 1 shorthanded and Braden Schneider 1.

Six men who kill penalties and also score on the power play is a rare combination and it is what a hundred and fourteen points was built out of.

What the Scout Says

Third in the league by rate on above-average volume, and the other half of the margin.

Mika Zibanejad has 13 career shorthanded goals in 848 games and Chris Kreider 9 in 815 — the same two men who score on the power play also kill, which is rarer than it sounds. Vincent Trocheck has 8 in 719.

Jacob Trouba is 6-3 and 212 and clears the crease with 4 career shorthanded goals. Ryan Lindgren blocks shots at 6-0 and 194 and has a career plus-99. Adam Fox and Braden Schneider each scored shorthanded last season.

A club with the third-best kill and the ninth-best power play, built out of the same six or seven forwards, will win a lot of hockey games regardless of what happens at even strength. That is precisely what happened.