New York Rangers

What the Quant Says

The thinnest even-strength attack of any club with playoff ambitions. 29th in the league in expected goals per 60 at 2.48, and 238 goals scored — with finishing essentially neutral at 1.8 above expectation, 17th.

Mika Zibanejad scored 34 goals and 78 points and was minus-20; 16 of the goals came on the power play. Alexis Lafrenière, the 1st overall pick in 2020, put up 57 points at the 71st percentile — the second-best on-ice rate on the club. J.T. Miller had 53 points and the worst plus-minus in this book at minus-30. Will Cuylle scored 20 with 65 penalty minutes.

The arrival that matters is Pavel Dorofeyev: 37 goals, 20 of them on the power play — 2nd in the league. Gabe Perreault at 21 takes 61 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, which is the profile this club has been missing.

What the Scout Says

A group of finishers, most of whom need the ice manufactured for them. Mika Zibanejad's one-timer from the left circle is still one of the better weapons in the league, and he shoots from too far out when nobody has built him a look; the 40-plus assists are the half people forget. Pavel Dorofeyev is a pure shooter who finds the quiet ice rather than fighting for the loud ice, which works beautifully on a power play and less well when a series tightens. Oliver Bjorkstrand has a quick, disguised release and does not go near the interior. Taylor Raddysh knows exactly where to stand and shoots less than almost anyone on the roster.

The exceptions are the reason there is a top 6 at all. J.T. Miller goes to the net front and protects pucks below the goal line, and his shot selection is excellent. Will Cuylle forechecks on time and hard, is fast for his size, and will fight — the difference between a fourth-liner and a top-9 winger. Alexis Lafrenière is not fast and never was, and what he has is strength on the puck and hands that work in a crowd, which is why the ice he shoots from keeps moving closer to the net. The most encouraging page belongs to Gabe Perreault, who already knows where to shoot from and is moved off pucks by grown defencemen.

What the Quant Says

11th in even-strength expected goals against, and carried by 1 man. Adam Fox put up 53 points in 55 games at 23:38 a night and posted the 91st percentile in chance share — the best on the club by a distance, with the goals 45-34 in his favour.

Below him it drops away hard. Braden Schneider played 1,437 5-on-5 minutes at the 10th percentile, with the expected goals 47.2 to 60.1 against him and 2 goals to show for 82 games. Vladislav Gavrikov took 1,619 minutes, the most on the roster, and came out level. Marcus Pettersson arrives at 6-5 and 174 pounds having posted the 5th percentile; Sean Durzi arrives from Utah at the 85th, which is the more useful addition. Matt Rempe is 6-9 and takes 79 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet.

What the Scout Says

One outstanding player and a group that struggles to defend the front of its own net. Adam Fox is the best passer at the position in this edition and gets pucks through looking for a tip; he cannot clear a crease and is moved out of the front of his own net by any winger who wants the space, and his availability has now been a question in 2 of the last 3 seasons. The gap between him and the next man is enormous.

Vladislav Gavrikov is the one who does the unglamorous half properly — he clears his crease, blocks shots and closes gaps without lunging. Braden Schneider hits hard and is genuinely difficult to get past in a straight line, and remains the most persistent disagreement between the eye and the record on this roster. Sean Durzi is a puck-mover who can be worked around by heavier forwards. Marcus Pettersson is the uncomfortable one: 6-5 and defending entirely with reach and stick because there is no strength to fall back on, moved at will in front of his own net, taking top-4 minutes. Matthew Robertson clears the crease and closes without over-committing, which is the whole of a third-pair job, and Urho Vaakanainen offers neither offence nor presence, which is the awkward combination.

What the Quant Says

Igor Shesterkin took 51 games and stopped .9116 with a 2.50 average, and the club's goaltending came in 7.5 goals better than the chances faced, 11th in the league.

Jonathan Quick is off the roster. Joonas Korpisalo arrives from Boston with a .8942 across 31 games, which is a functional backup and a long way from the starter. On a club that cannot create at even strength, Shesterkin is not a luxury — he is the mechanism by which a 29th-ranked attack finishes within 11 goals of even.

What the Scout Says

The most valuable asset on the roster, and the one least able to change the outcome. Igor Shesterkin's recoveries are what separate him: second and third saves made from positions that should not be recoverable, good rebound control, excellent tracking through traffic. He has been the best goaltender in the world for stretches and has had public runs of ordinariness, and neither appears to move him much.

Joonas Korpisalo is the honest backup: sound against volume from the perimeter, beaten by lateral movement, with rebound control that has been the most consistent criticism across 11 seasons. 5 organisations, most of it as somebody's second goaltender, and every stretch as a starter taken without visible complaint. On a roster with Shesterkin the backup job matters less than almost anywhere, which is fortunate.

What the Quant Says

The best thing here. 7th in the league at 8.13 expected goals per 60 — and only 4:31 a night to use it, 26th in opportunity.

Zibanejad's 16 power-play goals and Dorofeyev's 20 elsewhere are the shape of this roster: a club that scores on the man advantage and struggles at 5-on-5. Alexis Lafrenière added 9, Oliver Bjorkstrand arrives with 9 of his own. Between Zibanejad, Dorofeyev, Fox and Bjorkstrand this should be a top-3 unit; the constraint is how rarely it gets on the ice.

What the Scout Says

The best-organised phase of the club and the one that carries the roster's shooters. Mika Zibanejad's one-timer is the finish and the reason the unit rates where it does. Pavel Dorofeyev is the second release, and quiet ice is exactly what a man-advantage manufactures. Oliver Bjorkstrand's disguised shot is a third, and most of his goals arrive here rather than anywhere else.

Adam Fox runs it, and he is the difference between a set of shooters and a unit — the passing gets through, he looks for the tip, and he moves killers without needing to shoot. J.T. Miller does the close work and protects pucks below the goal line. What the group needs is somebody willing to stand in the paint and be hit for a living: Matt Rempe's entire shot chart is a man standing in the crease because there is nowhere else on the ice he can be useful, and that is not the same as a net-front presence who can finish.

What the Quant Says

27th at 7.71 expected goals against per 60, over 4:56 a game, 14th.

A poor kill taking a median workload, in front of the eleventh-best goaltending — which is most of why the rate is survivable. There is no shorthanded threat to speak of: Zibanejad's 2 shorthanded goals lead the club. With continuity at 69.1 per cent, 24th, and Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, Will Borgen and Conor Sheary all gone, this is a substantially different roster from the one that produced these numbers.

What the Scout Says

Structured, patient and short of pressure. Vladislav Gavrikov is the anchor — he clears the crease, blocks shots and closes without lunging — and Braden Schneider closes gaps aggressively and is hard to get past in a straight line, which is the pair a kill wants. Matthew Robertson takes the front of the net on the second unit. Noah Laba wins faceoffs and forechecks properly and the size is real rather than decorative; Joe Veleno's speed is genuine and it is the reason 4 organisations have looked at him.

What this group cannot do is attack the puck. Adam Fox should not be asked for this work and Marcus Pettersson cannot win the space in front of his own net, so the kill defends by collapsing and waiting, which puts the burden back on the goaltender. The club's own contribution is modest — Will Cuylle's 65 penalty minutes are the price of a forecheck worth having, and Rempe's fighting is the role as stated by everyone involved rather than a lapse.