Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

14

Gustav Nyquist

Nashville Predators Right Wing

Eleven seasons, 703 games, 428 points, and a fourth-round pick nobody has ever built a line around.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12DET18167+22000195.310:36
2012-13DET2233606000466.513:02
2013-14DET57282048+161060615318.316:51
2014-15DET82272754-1126140419513.916:39
2015-16DET82172643-23470316110.615:10
2016-17DET761236480182021657.317:26
2017-18DET82211940-2203022139.917:51
2018-19DET/SJS81223860+11220320410.817:31
2019-20CBJ70152742+4163131519.918:02
2021-22CBJ82183553-122644012214.817:50
2022-23CBJ/MIN51111627-91602210210.817:37
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—703175253428-1318641725153111.416:54

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 16 assists in 51 games — 27 points — with two shorthanded goals, split between Columbus and Minnesota. Minus-9, 17:37 a night, 102 shots at 10.8 per cent, 16 penalty minutes.

45.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 24th percentile, with his ice at 27-35 against an expectation of 27.13-32.51 — exactly the chances at the offensive end and three worse at the defensive, most of it behind Columbus, which finished thirty-first in goaltending value.

He missed a third of the season, though he has played more than seventy games six times in eleven years.

Eleven seasons, 703 games, 428 points.

The Finesse Game

102 shots at a median of 25 feet, 39 per cent from inside twenty and 19 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 21 shots on goal, 1 goal. Inside forty: 75 shots, 9 goals, 12.00 per cent.

The career line is 175 goals and 253 assists, and the 28-goal season in 2013-14 is the only one above 27. He is a passer who scores enough to be taken seriously.

91.4 mph at the 54th percentile, on three slap shots.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 180, and 16 penalty minutes in 51 games.

Top speed 21.9 mph, the 28th percentile; bursts 0.9 a game, the 52nd; 2.59 miles a game, the 52nd. Every reading is at or below average.

He is small, not fast, and not physical, and he has played seven hundred games anyway. What he has instead is the puck: he holds it on the half-wall, waits, and finds the seam.

He kills penalties and took two shorthanded goals doing it.

The Intangibles

One hundred and twenty-first overall in 2008 to Detroit, eight seasons there, and then San Jose, Columbus, Minnesota and Nashville.

He is thirty-three with 428 points and has never been the best forward on a club. That is a description rather than a criticism: a second-line winger who produces at half a point a game for eleven years is a rare and undervalued thing.

On a club that finished twenty-seventh in goals, Nashville needs exactly this and has bought it cheaply.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “What he has instead is the puck: he holds it on the half-wall, waits, and finds the seam.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties and took two shorthanded goals doing it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 697 minutes

Expected goals
45.5%
24th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.7%
20th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 35 against. Expected: 27.1 and 32.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
24th

The report ranks him 29 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 51 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
38th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.94 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.59 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.4 mph
75th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with CBJ · 657 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MIN took 50.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.5% — 4.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
697 minutes at five-on-five — 31st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Vladislav Gavrikov44.5%46.1%50.0%
Boone Jenner50.1%42.9%47.3%
Jack Roslovic40.1%48.3%41.8%

44.5% together, 46.1% for him apart and 50.0% for Gavrikov apart. Gavrikov was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

129 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.