Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

44

Kiefer Sherwood

Nashville Predators Left Wing

Undrafted, five seasons, three organisations, and 119 NHL games at twenty-eight.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19ANA506612+180016010.011:22
2019-20ANA10011-16000170.013:20
2020-21COL16033+20000180.08:48
2021-22COL11112+30001911.18:34
2022-23NSH327613+4301005712.313:36
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—119141731+9441021618.711:32

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 6 assists in 32 games — 13 points — at 13:36 a night, with 30 penalty minutes. Plus-4, 57 shots at 12.3 per cent.

45.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 20th percentile, with his ice at 19-14 against an expectation of 15.60-19.06 across 387 minutes — three goals more at the offensive end than the chances and five better at the defensive, which on 387 minutes is noise.

He started 56.1 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 78th percentile, which is a favourable share and makes the 20th percentile read worse.

Five seasons, 119 games, 31 points.

The Finesse Game

57 shots at a median of 25 feet, 34 per cent from inside twenty and 20 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 12 shots on goal, 1 goal. Inside forty: 42 shots, 6 goals, 14.29 per cent.

Fifty-seven shots in thirty-two games is a good rate for a fourth-line winger, and 12.3 per cent is a good return on it. Neither number survives a full season without more evidence than 119 career games provides.

90.8 mph at the 49th percentile, on four slap shots.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 194, and 30 penalty minutes in 32 games.

Top speed 22.1 mph, the 42nd percentile; bursts 1.2 a game, the 64th; 2.06 miles a game, the 19th.

He finishes every check and takes the penalties that come with it, and thirty minutes in thirty-two games is close to a minor a night. That is what an undrafted forward on his fourth club does to stay employed.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of Miami University, signed by Anaheim at twenty-three, and 119 NHL games across five seasons with three organisations.

He is twenty-eight and has never played fifty games in a season. The record is a fourth-line winger who hits, and the thirteen points in thirty-two games are the best case rather than the expectation.

Nashville has him cheaply and will use him the way everyone else has.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “**Undrafted**, out of Miami University, signed by Anaheim at twenty-three, and 119 NHL games across five seasons with three organisations.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He finishes every check and takes the penalties that come with it, and thirty minutes in thirty-two games is close to a minor a night.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 387 minutes

Expected goals
45%
21st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.1%
39th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 14 against. Expected: 15.6 and 19.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
21st

The report ranks him 32 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 32 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
49th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.22 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.06 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.8 mph
71st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 387 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NSH took 47.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.0% — 2.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 387 minutes at five-on-five — 10th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tommy Novak41.8%52.2%45.6%
Luke Evangelista42.2%49.4%50.7%
Ryan McDonagh48.4%43.5%44.8%

41.8% together, 52.2% for him apart and 45.6% for Novak apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

76 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.