Minnesota Wild

What the Quant Says

246 goals, 22nd in the league.

Minnesota created 2.492 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 23rd, and took 49.5 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 20th, and 50.0 per cent of the expected goals, 17th.

At five-on-five it scored 144 goals against an expectation of 156.9 — a shortfall of 12.9, 29th in the league. Twenty-third at making chances and twenty-ninth at converting them, on a 103-point club.

Kirill Kaprizov scored 40 goals and had 75 points in 67 games on 261 shots. Mats Zuccarello had 22 and 67 at 5-8 and 35 years old, Matt Boldy 31 and 63 at 22, Joel Eriksson Ek 23 and 61 with 12 power-play goals, Marcus Johansson 19 and 46 with 7 game-winners and Frederick Gaudreau 19 goals and 4 shorthanded.

Jared Spurgeon had 34 points and a plus-32 from the blue line at 166 pounds. Calen Addison had 26 assists at 23.

What the Scout Says

Forty goals from a fifth-round pick, and a thirty-five-year-old at five foot eight on the first line.

Kirill Kaprizov is 5-10 and 202 and was 135th overall in 2015, with five more seasons in Russia after the draft and 114 goals in his first 203 NHL games. The 88 in his shot grade and the 88 in hockey sense are the highest forward figures in this chapter. He started 67.4 per cent of his five-on-five shifts in the attacking zone; nothing in this file tells you what he does when the shifts begin in his own end, because Minnesota has never asked him to find out.

Mats Zuccarello is 5-8 and 181, undrafted out of Norway, and had 67 points at 20 minutes a night at 35. The 88 in playmaking and 88 in hockey sense are the reason he is still on the first line.

Matt Boldy is 6-2 and 201 and had 63 points at 22 with 192 close-range shots and no long-shot habit to unlearn. This is the most valuable asset on the roster after Kaprizov and probably the one to bet on.

Joel Eriksson Ek is 6-3 and 207 with 90 in hockey sense and 92 in compete, takes 54 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, and is the reason a club with the 23rd-ranked chance-generating group finished 10th at suppressing them. That is an inference and the page states it as one.

Marcus Foligno is 6-3 and 226 with 749 career penalty minutes. Ryan Hartman took 90 penalty minutes in 59 games. Patrick Maroon arrives at 6-3 and 234 with 930 career penalty minutes and the slowest measured top speed of any forward in the league.

What the Quant Says

Minnesota allowed 2.498 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 10th in the league, and conceded 225 goals, 7th.

At five-on-five it conceded 139 goals against an expectation of 156.8, and the club's goaltending came in 17.8 goals better than the chances it faced, 4th in the league.

Jared Spurgeon is 5-9 and 166 pounds — the lightest defenceman in this book — and played 79 games at 21:49 for a plus-32, the second season running. Jonas Brodin played 60 games at 22:52 with 88 in hockey sense, and Jake Middleton 79 at 19:02 at 6-3 and 219 — the heavy man on the lightest blue line in the league.

Jon Merrill played 73 games at 15:09 at a 20.6 mph top speed, the 1st percentile, with one burst above twenty miles an hour every fourteen games. Alex Goligoski played 46 at 38 with 1,042 career games.

Mathew Dumba has gone to Arizona.

What the Scout Says

The lightest defenceman in this book at twenty-two minutes a night, and the slowest measured skater on the club beside him.

Jared Spurgeon is 5-9 and 166 pounds and was 156th overall in 2008 to a club that never signed him. He has 851 games and the captaincy, a plus-32 in each of the last two seasons, and 14 penalty minutes in 79 games. The 92 in hockey sense and the 88 in compete are the highest defensive grades in this chapter. What is not measurable is how much longer a 166-pound body does this.

Jonas Brodin is 6-2 and 196, tenth overall in 2011, in the league at 19, and has never been anywhere else. Twenty-three minutes a night and fourteen points is a defensive defenceman's line, and the availability is the reservation: sixty games last season, and only two above seventy-five in eleven years.

Jake Middleton is 6-3 and 219 and was 210th overall in 2014 to a club that never signed him, then fourteen San Jose games in three years. He is the heavy man on the lightest blue line in the league, which is a specific and real job.

Jon Merrill has 547 NHL games without ever being good at anything measurable — 20.6 mph and one burst above twenty miles an hour every fourteen games. That is a career built on being where he is supposed to be. Calen Addison had 26 assists and a minus-17 at 23, with 87 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 17.8 goals better than the chances it faced, 4th in the league. This is where the 103 points came from.

Filip Gustavsson went 22-9-7 with a .9309 and a 2.10 in 39 games at 25, facing 1,173 shots with 3 shutouts. He posted an .8920 in Ottawa the season before. His career line across 66 games is a .9200.

Marc-Andre Fleury went 24-16-4 with a .9078 and a 2.85 in 46 games at 38, facing 1,367. His career line across 985 games is a .9127, with three Stanley Cups and a Vezina at 36 in it.

A club that finished 23rd at creating chances and 29th at converting them won 46 games because one of its two goaltenders posted the second-best save percentage in the league. Nothing else on this page explains 103 points.

What the Scout Says

A .9309 from a goaltender who posted an .8920 in Ottawa a year earlier, and a three-time Cup winner at thirty-eight behind him.

Filip Gustavsson is 6-2 and 184 and went 22-9-7 with a .9309 and three shutouts in 39 games at 25. The 82 in positioning, the 78 in glove and the 76 in rebounds are the highest goaltending grades in this chapter. He is calm, deep and technically clean, and the career .9200 across 66 games sits between the two seasons that produced it. Everything about Minnesota's coming season is contained in which of those two numbers is real.

Marc-Andre Fleury is 6-2 and 185, in a nineteenth season, with 985 games, three Stanley Cups and a Vezina at 36. He posted a .9078 at 38 and the 74 in puck-handling is the best figure on his card — he still plays the puck better than most defencemen on this roster.

Fourth in the league in goaltending value, from a 25-year-old with one good season and a 38-year-old with nineteen. That is the whole of the eleventh-place finish.

What the Quant Says

7th in the league at 7.850 expected goals per 60, over 4:57 a night, 21st in power-play time.

Kirill Kaprizov scored 17 power-play goals, Joel Eriksson Ek 12, Mats Zuccarello 9, Matt Boldy 8, Marcus Johansson 5, Frederick Gaudreau 3, Jared Spurgeon 1 and Jujhar Khaira 1 elsewhere.

Marcus Johansson has 40 career power-play goals in 833 games, and Kirill Kaprizov 39 in 203 — by a very wide margin the highest rate on any roster in this chapter. Mats Zuccarello has 43 in 766, Jared Spurgeon 33 in 851, Alex Goligoski 26 in 1,042 and Joel Eriksson Ek 25 in 421.

Seventeen of Kaprizov's 40 goals came on the power play. Seventh in the league by rate on the seventeenth-most ice, and the unit is entirely built to give one man the puck in one place.

What the Scout Says

Seventh in the league, and the whole unit exists to give one man the puck.

Kirill Kaprizov has 39 career power-play goals in 203 games — a rate no other man on any roster in this chapter approaches — and scored 17 last season, seventeen of his forty goals. He shoots from the left circle and the entire structure is arranged around getting him there.

Mats Zuccarello has 43 career power-play goals in 766 games and is the man who finds him, at 5-8 with 88 in playmaking.

Joel Eriksson Ek scored 12 from the net front at 6-3 and 207, which is the second-largest figure on the club and the least discussed. Matt Boldy scored 8 at 22 with a 96.1 mph shot.

Jared Spurgeon has 33 career power-play goals in 851 games and takes the point at 166 pounds. Marcus Johansson arrives with 40 in 833.

Seventh in the league on the seventeenth-most ice. There is one weapon here and it is a very good one.

What the Quant Says

7th in the league at 6.091 expected goals against per 60, over 5:09 a night, 13th in shorthanded time.

Frederick Gaudreau scored 4 shorthanded goals — only two men in the league scored more — with Connor Dewar 3, Marcus Johansson 2, Joel Eriksson Ek 2, Ryan Hartman 2 and Brandon Duhaime 1. Fourteen shorthanded goals, from a club that scored 246.

Marcus Foligno has 5 career shorthanded goals in 743 games and 749 penalty minutes. Marcus Johansson has 3 in 833, Frederick Gaudreau 4 in 261, Connor Dewar 3 in 116 — the highest rate on the roster — and Ryan Hartman 3 in 506.

Frederick Gaudreau took 10 penalty minutes in 82 games and Jared Spurgeon 14 in 79. Marcus Foligno took 97 in 65 games and Patrick Maroon arrives with 150 in 80 — the most penalty minutes of any skater in the league.

Seventh in the league by rate and fourteen shorthanded goals. This is the best-run department on the club and it costs almost nothing.

What the Scout Says

Fourth in the league, fourteen shorthanded goals, and a club that barely takes a penalty at the top of the lineup.

Frederick Gaudreau scored 4 shorthanded goals — only two men in the league scored more — and took 10 penalty minutes in 82 games. He is undrafted, had 103 NHL games across his first four seasons, and has 33 goals in his two Minnesota years after 5 in his first four elsewhere.

Connor Dewar has 3 career shorthanded goals in 116 games, the highest rate on the roster, and held the lowest chance share of any Minnesota forward — which is what the assignment costs.

Marcus Foligno is 6-3 and 226 with 749 career penalty minutes and 5 shorthanded goals in 743 games. Ryan Hartman has 3 in 506 on 505 career penalty minutes.

Jared Spurgeon took 14 penalty minutes in 79 games and Jonas Brodin 30 in 60. The blue line does not put this club shorthanded, and when it is, the two smallest defencemen in the chapter are the ones killing it.