This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →
Mathew Dumba
Arizona Coyotes Defense
The second-hardest shot measured in the league, four goals, and thirteen goals of scoring that never arrived.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | MIN | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8.3 | 12:27 |
| 2014-15 | MIN | 58 | 8 | 8 | 16 | +13 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 86 | 9.3 | 15:01 |
| 2015-16 | MIN | 81 | 10 | 16 | 26 | +1 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 152 | 6.6 | 16:50 |
| 2016-17 | MIN | 76 | 11 | 23 | 34 | +15 | 59 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 131 | 8.4 | 20:20 |
| 2017-18 | MIN | 82 | 14 | 36 | 50 | +15 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 176 | 8.0 | 23:49 |
| 2018-19 | MIN | 32 | 12 | 10 | 22 | -5 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 93 | 12.9 | 23:23 |
| 2019-20 | MIN | 69 | 6 | 18 | 24 | -7 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 3.6 | 22:30 |
| 2020-21 | MIN | 51 | 6 | 15 | 21 | +1 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 89 | 6.7 | 22:17 |
| 2021-22 | MIN | 57 | 7 | 20 | 27 | +9 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 116 | 6.0 | 23:06 |
| 2022-23 | MIN | 79 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -8 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 99 | 4.0 | 21:17 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 598 | 79 | 157 | 236 | +29 | 399 | 26 | 0 | 16 | 1121 | 7.0 | 20:37 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
4 goals and 10 assists in 79 games for Minnesota — 14 points at 21:17 a night, minus-8, on 99 shots and 81 penalty minutes.
49.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,481 minutes, the 47th percentile — respectable, and then the goals: his ice went 45-49 against an expectation of 58.32-59.68. Thirteen goals of scoring simply did not arrive. That is the largest offensive shortfall of any defenceman here and it is mostly the finishing of the men in front of him.
Fourteen points is the lowest full season of his career.
The Finesse Game
99 attempts at a median of 49 feet, 69 per cent from beyond 40 and 12 per cent from inside 20, converting at 4.04 per cent.
The shot is measured at 101.6 mph, the 99th percentile in the league, and it produced four goals. That combination recurs across this book and it means the same thing every time: a very hard shot from 49 feet through traffic is a device for creating rebounds, not for scoring. 79 goals in 598 games is the career rate.
The Physical Game
6-0 and 191, and 399 penalty minutes in 598 games is a defenceman who hits and occasionally crosses the line doing it. He plays a hard, upright, physical game and he has fought when the room needed it.
The skating is adequate rather than a strength — 21.9 mph at the 29th percentile — and at 29 the game is more about position and force than recovery.
The Intangibles
Seventh overall in 2012, ten seasons and 598 games in Minnesota, and a genuine Norris-calibre stretch before a ruptured pectoral in 2018 that the career has never quite got back to.
He is 29 and signed here for a season on a club that will not compete, which is the deal a veteran takes when he wants a fresh market to be judged in. He has been visible off the ice as one of the founders of the Hockey Diversity Alliance, and on a young roster in a small building that matters more than the fourteen points.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
79 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
- workhorse· carries the load at even strength
18:45 a game at five-on-five, 90th percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it
“399 penalty minutes in 598 games is a defenceman who hits and occasionally crosses the line doing it”
“He has been visible off the ice as one of the founders of the Hockey Diversity Alliance, and on a young roster in a small building that matters more than the fourteen points.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,481 minutes
- Expected goals
- 49.4%
- 47th pct
- Shot attempts
- 49.2%
- 46th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 45 for, 49 against. Expected: 58.3 and 59.7.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 14 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 58 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 with MIN · 1481 minutes at five-on-five
- Jonas Brodin56%
- Alex Goligoski23%
- Jon Merrill11%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- MIN took 50.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.4% — 0.6 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second pair, 1,481 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Brodin | 51.0% | 47.4% | 55.4% |
| Mats Zuccarello | 48.8% | 49.7% | 53.3% |
| Matt Boldy | 56.6% | 46.7% | 51.2% |
51.0% together, 47.4% for him apart and 55.4% for Brodin apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Brodin and did not follow him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
160 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.