Minnesota Wild

What the Quant Says

272 goals, 10th in even-strength creation, and 24th in shot-attempt share — a club that does not have the puck much and does a lot when it does.

Kirill Kaprizov scored 45 goals and 89 points, 19 of the goals on the power play. Matt Boldy scored 42 and 85 and took the leap that makes him the second thing opponents have to plan for. Joel Eriksson Ek added 51 points from the middle, taking half his shots from inside 20 feet. Danila Yurov is 22, played 73 games and finished at the 62nd percentile shooting from a median of 18 feet.

The club finished 5.7 goals below expectation, 22nd. With 2 wingers at 40 goals and a 22-year-old already shooting from the right places, this is an attack with more in it than the ranking suggests.

What the Scout Says

2 genuine scorers, and the question of whether either can carry a line alone. Kirill Kaprizov's shot is rare in the literal sense — heavy, quick, released from positions where a goaltender has not finished setting — and he scores from the top of the circle on his off wing as often as he does from in tight, which is why he cannot be played a single way. The other half of him is stubbornness: he protects the puck low with a wide base and wins it back below the goal line against defencemen with 6 inches on him. A lot of this offence starts with him simply refusing to give it up.

Matt Boldy shoots quickly off the catch and changes the angle with his hands rather than his feet, and he has learned to take the puck to a dangerous place before releasing it — going to the net front and taking the abuse that comes with setting up where he scores from was the piece missing in his first 2 seasons. Joel Eriksson Ek does the close work: tips, a genuinely good backhand in tight, pucks held below the goal line until his wingers are ready. Ryan Hartman finishes around the net and does not start anything. Underneath, the interesting men are the ones who need somebody to win pucks for them — Bobby Brink is a creative passer in tight spaces who does not separate and cannot win races; Maxim Shabanov makes plays through traffic that bottom-6 forwards do not attempt and is removed from pucks by anybody who wants to; Danila Yurov has the hands and lets too many shifts pass without touching the game.

What the Quant Says

The most interesting blue line in the league this season, for one reason: Quinn Hughes arrives having put up 76 points in 27:44 a night — 28 minutes, 7 goals, 69 assists — and joins a group that was already 18th in expected goals against without him.

Brock Faber played 1,628 5-on-5 minutes at 24, the second-heaviest load of any skater in this edition, at 24:41 a night and the 71st percentile, and had the goals come out 80-75 against expected goals of 75.1 to 68.7. Jared Spurgeon is 5-9, 36, 1,000 games in, and still takes the hardest assignment most nights. Jonas Brodin is the quietest good defenceman in the league. Faber and Hughes on the same blue line is the single biggest change any club made this summer.

What the Scout Says

The best in the league on the days everybody is healthy, and it is the small men who make it so. Quinn Hughes is not merely fast — his edges let him change direction in a stride and escape a forecheck that has him pinned — and the passing is elite in the literal sense: a forecheck broken with one pass, ordinary forwards made to look better. He cannot clear a crease against a heavy forward and can be pinned by someone who gets to the wall first, so he defends with feet, stick and angles, and does it better than most bigger men. The workload is what to watch: 28 minutes a night at that size is a great deal of asking.

Jared Spurgeon is the same trade a generation older — never out of position, reading a rush a beat before it develops, closing gaps at exactly the moment an attacker has committed, so that very little of his defending involves contact because very little of it needs to. Jonas Brodin is the purest defender here: smooth, fast backwards, and a stick that takes pucks at the blue line; watch him for a period and nothing appears to happen, then look at the men he defends. Brock Faber skates well enough to defend anybody's rush and join it without getting caught. The weight comes from Zach Bogosian, who hits, clears his own crease and will fight, and Olli Maatta, who is safe and a step slow. The risk is the same in 3 places: Hughes, Spurgeon and Brodin are all small or fragile or both, and all 3 block shots.

What the Quant Says

Strong, and with a succession already underway. Jesper Wallstedt stopped .9147 across 35 games at 23 — better than the starter — while Filip Gustavsson went .9034 across 50.

Together they came in 12.0 goals better than the chances faced, 8th in the league. Calvin Pickard arrives from Edmonton having stopped .8707 in 16, which is depth rather than competition. The question is not whether Minnesota has a good goaltender; it is which one, and Wallstedt at 23 with a .915 behind a club that concedes the twentieth-most chances is the more interesting answer.

What the Scout Says

A settled starter and the young man behind him who may already be better. Filip Gustavsson is athletic rather than large, quick post to post, and tracks pucks through traffic better than his size suggests; at his best he is calm and economical and does not look like he is working. When he is off, he is deep in his crease and reaching rather than moving, and the rebounds go to the slot instead of the corner. He does not visibly rattle, and the results move more than a settled starter's should.

Jesper Wallstedt is technically excellent and has been since he was 18: square early, hands in front, minimal wasted movement, and rebound control already better than most goaltenders manage at 30. He tracks through screens, which is the most valuable thing a young goaltender can do and usually the last to arrive. What he has not been through is the stretch where a starter loses 6 in a row and has to be steady anyway. Calvin Pickard is the third man, compact and technical, whose job is to be available and not to be needed.

What the Quant Says

13th at 7.09 expected goals per 60, on 5:06 a night — the seventh-most time in the league.

Kaprizov's 19 power-play goals were tied for 3rd in the league, behind Wyatt Johnston's 27 and Pavel Dorofeyev's 20, and account for more than 2-fifths of his total. Boldy added 11, Eriksson Ek 7, Ryan Hartman 6. This is a unit with real personnel and league-average output, and with Hughes now available to quarterback it, the cheapest place on the roster to find goals.

What the Scout Says

It is built around one shooter and one net front, and the new man at the point changes it. Kirill Kaprizov is the release that does not need a goaltender to be late, and he is dangerous from his off wing at a distance most wingers his size never shoot from. Joel Eriksson Ek is the net-front man and his deflections are a real weapon rather than a hopeful stick. Matt Boldy takes the inner slot and gets it away off the catch.

Quinn Hughes is what the unit has been missing. He walks the line, retrieves under pressure without panicking, and finds the pass that has been available for a quarter of a second — and notably, he does his damage without needing to shoot. Brock Faber's shot is heavier than expected and he gets it through a screen. Bobby Brink is the specialist here: slow feet matter least on a power play and vision matters most, and he is the 1 player on the roster whose limitations disappear on this unit.

What the Quant Says

18th at 7.39 expected goals against per 60, and Minnesota was shorthanded only 4:25 a game — 28th, one of the most disciplined clubs in hockey.

Boldy's 4 shorthanded goals were tied for 2nd in the league, and Blake Coleman arrives from Calgary with 4 of his own — 2 of the 6 players in the league with 4 or more, now on the same team. Eriksson Ek, Yakov Trenin and Nico Sturm take the hard shorthanded minutes. A median kill that rarely has to work, with 2 of the league's best shorthanded threats on it, is better than the rank reads.

What the Scout Says

As well-staffed as any part of this roster. Joel Eriksson Ek takes the hard draws and blocks shots; Nico Sturm exists for defensive-zone faceoffs late in games, which is a job that keeps a player employed long after his offence has stopped mattering; Yakov Trenin hits, kills and takes draws against top lines. Blake Coleman is a genuine shorthanded threat because his speed forces defencemen into decisions, and he has scored important shorthanded goals in playoff games for 2 clubs. Dylan Gambrell is the specialist's specialist.

Behind them Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon take away the middle with sticks and angles, and Zach Bogosian clears the front and blocks what gets through. What this group does not do is remove a heavy forward from the crease — Spurgeon can be established on, Hughes cannot clear it, and Brodin defends by position rather than force. The club's own contribution to the workload is worth naming: Michael McCarron's 93 penalty minutes at 14 minutes a night is a lot, and not all of it is the useful kind, while Ryan Hartman's edge occasionally costs games rather than winning them.