Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

15

Mason Shaw

Minnesota Wild Center

Seventy-nine penalty minutes in fifty-nine games at eleven minutes a night, after knees that nearly ended it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22MIN3000-2500070.08:59
2022-23MIN5971017-179000927.611:17
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—6271017-384000997.111:10

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 10 assists in 59 games — 17 points — with 79 penalty minutes. Minus-1, 11:17 a night, 92 shots at 7.6 per cent.

Seventy-nine penalty minutes from eleven minutes a night is one of the higher rates in this chapter, and it came from a 5-10, 184-pound fourth-line centre.

46.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 28th percentile, with his ice at 16-19 against an expectation of 17.78-20.79 across 577 minutes.

Two seasons, 62 games, 17 points. This was, at twenty-four, his first.

The Finesse Game

92 shots at a median of 35 feet, 29 per cent from inside twenty and 43 per cent from beyond forty — an unusually long shot chart for a fourth-line forward.

Beyond forty: 37 shots on goal, 1 goal. Inside forty: 49 shots, 6 goals, 12.24 per cent.

Thirty-seven long shots from a man who plays eleven minutes is a lot of pucks thrown at the net from range, and one goal is the return this book keeps finding on that habit. Taken from inside forty feet at his own rate, those thirty-seven shots are three or four more goals.

86.2 mph at the 17th percentile, on thirteen slap shots.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 184, and 79 penalty minutes in 59 games.

Top speed 21.8 mph, the 25th percentile; bursts 1.1 a game, the 60th; 1.85 miles a game, the 9th.

He hits everything, at his size, on every shift, and the penalty total is what that costs. He is not fast and he is not big and he plays as though neither fact has been explained to him.

The knee reconstructions are the story that follows him — repeated, serious, and enough to have ended most careers before an NHL game. He got to fifty-nine of them at twenty-four.

The Intangibles

Ninety-seventh overall in 2017 out of Medicine Hat, four seasons in the American league, and a first NHL season at twenty-four.

36.8 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 9th percentile.

What this book can measure is a 28th-percentile chance share and a 7.6 per cent shooting rate, and both say fourth line. What it cannot measure is the thing that got him here, and it is not nothing.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    43.0% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He hits everything, at his size, on every shift, and the penalty total is what that costs.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 577 minutes

Expected goals
46.1%
28th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.2%
39th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 16 for, 19 against. Expected: 17.8 and 20.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
62nd
Numbers
28th

The report ranks him 34 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 59 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
36th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.10 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.85 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.2 mph
43rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 577 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MIN took 50.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.1% — 3.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 577 minutes at five-on-five — 21st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Connor Dewar46.7%44.0%42.8%
Ryan Reaves43.1%49.3%44.7%
Matt Dumba45.3%46.6%50.0%

46.7% together, 44.0% for him apart and 42.8% for Dewar apart. Dewar was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Dewar than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

107 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 29% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 43% from beyond forty.