Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

32

Filip Gustavsson

Minnesota Wild Goaltender

An .8920 in Ottawa, a .9309 in Minnesota, and one summer between them.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2020-21OTT9512172.160254.933
2021-22OTT185121623.550574.892
2022-23MIN392297812.1031173.931
2023-24 so far——————————
Career—663222101602.5132001.920

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

22-9-7 in 39 games, .9309, 2.10, three shutouts on 1,173 shots.

That .9309 is the second-best save percentage in the league among goaltenders who played twenty-five games, behind Ullmark’s .9375, and the 2.10 goals-against average is the lowest of any goaltender in these five chapters.

The year before, in Ottawa, he played eighteen games and posted .8920.

That is a jump of nearly forty points of save percentage in one summer, and this book records it as what it is: a very good season on a club that allowed the tenth-fewest expected goals per sixty at even strength, from a twenty-four-year-old whose previous professional record gave no reason to expect it.

Three seasons, 66 games.

The Finesse Game

6-2 and 184, and a compact, patient style that stays on his feet longer than most.

He tracks the puck through traffic unusually well for a goaltender this young — the specific skill Minnesota’s structure demands, because a club that concedes few good chances concedes a lot of screened ones from range instead.

Rebound control was the visible improvement between Ottawa and Minnesota: he was steering pucks to the corners rather than back into the slot, and three shutouts in thirty-nine games is what that looks like on the scoresheet.

Minnesota’s goaltending value finished fourth in the league. Fleury played forty-six games at .9078; this is where the other seventeen goals came from.

The Intangibles

Fifty-fifth overall in 2016 to Pittsburgh, traded to Ottawa before he played a game, traded to Minnesota at twenty-four.

Sixty-six NHL games is not enough to know what a goaltender is. The honest reading is a genuine talent whose one good season came behind a good defensive club, and a club that has now committed to him as the starter on the strength of thirty-nine games.

If the .9309 was real, Minnesota has solved the position for a decade. If it was the club, the club is about to find out.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • tracks-traffica strength· finds it through a screen

    “He tracks the puck through traffic unusually well for a goaltender this young — the specific skill Minnesota's structure demands, because a club that concedes few good chances concedes a lot of screened ones from range instead.”

  • rebound-controla strength· where the second chance ends up

    “Rebound control was the visible improvement between Ottawa and Minnesota: he was steering pucks to the corners rather than back into the slot, and three shutouts in thirty-nine games is what that looks like on the scoresheet.”