Minnesota Wild

What the Quant Says

228 goals — eighth-fewest in the league — and 29th in creating chances at even strength at 2.25 expected goals per 60. The attack was the worst thing about a playoff team.

Kirill Kaprizov played 41 games and produced 56 points, a rate of 1.37 that projects to 112 over a season. Matt Boldy carried the other half: 73 points, 271 shots — the most on the club by 113 — and 10 game-winners. Marco Rossi had 60 points at 24 with 53 per cent of his shots taken from inside 20 feet. Mats Zuccarello had 54 at 37.

Finishing was 21st, 7.1 goals below expectation, and the distribution is unkind: Zuccarello's line was outscored 47-40 against an expected 40-42, and Rossi's 56-39 against an expected 50.0-44.5. Those are 19 and 20 goals that did not arrive on a club that scored 228.

What the Scout Says

Two men who can create and a great deal of forechecking.

Kaprizov beats defencemen one-on-one and has become a genuine distributor as well — 31 assists in 41 games is the half nobody discusses. Boldy holds the puck on the wall, delays, and finds the seam, and he was the only man on this roster who could create anything by himself for half a season.

Marco Rossi is the interesting one: a 5-9 centre who has decided the only way to survive is to play inside, taking pucks off sticks below the goal line and passing well out of those areas. Mats Zuccarello at 37 holds the puck on the wall until a defender commits and puts it through the space he leaves — 35 assists on a club that scored 228 goals. Joel Eriksson Ek goes to the net front and stays and has now missed parts of three seasons doing it.

Underneath, it is checking without finishing. Marcus Foligno takes 54 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet and is among the most feared forwards in the league. Yakov Trenin gets the puck deep and forechecks and has 15 points. Vladimir Tarasenko's release is still heavy and everything that got him to the circle has gone, and 6 penalty minutes in 80 games is a man not involved in anything.

What the Quant Says

239 goals against and 5th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.34 per 60, with a 28th-ranked shot-attempt share. They defend well and never have the puck.

Jared Spurgeon — 5-9 and 166 pounds, the lightest defenceman in the league — posted 53 per cent at 35, six points clear of anybody else on the blue line, and took 14 penalty minutes in 66 games doing it. Jonas Brodin took 86 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet and 1 per cent from inside 20 across 50 games.

Between them they played 116 games. Brock Faber, at 23, absorbed 25:32 a night — the second-heaviest workload in this edition — and posted a 46.9 per cent chance share, the 23rd percentile. That is a young defenceman being used well beyond what he is currently capable of, and the club's response was to sign him long-term rather than to find him help.

What the Scout Says

Two excellent veterans who cannot stay healthy, and a 23-year-old carrying what is left.

Jared Spurgeon is the lightest defenceman in the league and sees the outlet before the forecheck arrives; he cannot clear a crease and is very rarely in a battle he did not choose, and 14 penalty minutes in 66 games is the whole method — never late, never reaching. Jonas Brodin closes a gap at the blue line as well as anybody in the league and recovers when beaten, with 1 per cent of his shots taken from inside 20 feet because none of the job involves the offensive zone.

Brock Faber covers ground exceptionally and closes gaps without reaching, and 23 penalty minutes at 25 minutes a night is excellent discipline. The offence has not grown since his rookie year and the chance share is what 25 minutes against everybody's best line produces at 23.

Jake Middleton clears his crease and hits and is one of two men here who defend the paint by force. Zach Bogosian at 35 took 89 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet at a median of 59 and played 81 games, which is more than either of the men above him.

What the Quant Says

Filip Gustavsson went 31-19-6 with a .9138 and 5 shutouts across 58 games, facing the fifth-most shots in the league. The club's goaltending came in 8.5 goals better than the chances faced, 12th.

On a club that was 29th at creating chances, that is the whole margin. A .9138 behind a defence that is 9th at suppressing chances is a good season rather than a great one, and it was enough.

Jesper Wallstedt, 22, stopped .8431 in 2 games and had an ordinary American League season underneath it — the second in a row. He remains the organisation's plan and the runway is narrowing.

What the Scout Says

A good goaltender facing the fifth-most shots in the league, and a prospect the organisation has been waiting on for four years.

Filip Gustavsson is 6-2 and 184 and the game is quick and technical rather than large — square, tracking well, judging the depth in the crease rather than fixing it. The rebound control is decent and the recovery is good. What he cannot do is cover a net by occupying it, so a screened point shot he does not see is a goal, and behind a club that concedes as many perimeter shots as this one that matters. The career has swung sharply between excellent and ordinary with no obvious explanation for either direction.

Jesper Wallstedt is 6-3 and plays a large, calm, deep, positional game that is genuinely advanced for 22, and the lateral quickness is adequate rather than exceptional. The rebound control is the part still developing — pucks come off him further into the slot than they should. Two ordinary American League seasons and 2 NHL losses is the whole of the professional record, and a third would change the conversation.

What the Quant Says

18th at 6.67 expected goals per 60, over 4:25 a night. League-average, on a club that badly needed more.

Rossi scored 7 power-play goals, Boldy 6, Eriksson Ek 5 in 46 games, Kaprizov 4 in 41. The unit is Kaprizov's shot and Zuccarello's distribution, and it played half a season without the first of them. Vladimir Tarasenko was signed for exactly this: a release that still gets away quickly from the circle, on a club with nobody to occupy a killer's attention besides two men who missed 77 games between them.

What the Scout Says

Two men, and it played half a season without one of them.

Kirill Kaprizov's release from the left circle is the unit — a killing box has to respect it from the moment the puck arrives, and everything else opens because of that. Mats Zuccarello is the distributor who makes the arrangement work, holding the puck until a killer commits.

Marco Rossi goes to the net front and Joel Eriksson Ek does the same when he is available, and both are genuinely willing there. What has been missing is a second shooting threat, which is precisely why Vladimir Tarasenko was signed: the release still works and everything else about him has gone, which for two minutes at a time is the right trade. Brock Faber at the line moves it well and does not make anybody move.

What the Quant Says

22nd at 7.16 expected goals against per 60, over 4:21 a game. Below average, and the discipline is the reason.

Ryan Hartman took 75 penalty minutes and served a ten-game suspension. Marcus Foligno took 75. Yakov Trenin took 54 in twelve minutes a night. Zach Bogosian took 43. That is four men on one roster, on a club that finished 97 points and had to win a tiebreaker's worth of games in March.

Brodin and Spurgeon are genuinely good at the defensive work when available, and Nico Sturm was signed to win the draws that start it. Trenin's 2 shorthanded goals are the unit's only ornament.

What the Scout Says

Capable men and an indefensible number of penalties.

Jonas Brodin is among the better shorthanded defencemen in the league — he closes the blue line, does not chase, and takes 18 penalty minutes a season. Jared Spurgeon reads a breakout as well as anybody. Nico Sturm was signed to win the draw that starts it and is genuinely good at that specific job. Yakov Trenin scored 2 shorthanded goals.

And then the arithmetic. Ryan Hartman 75 penalty minutes and a ten-game suspension, Marcus Foligno 75, Trenin 54 in twelve minutes a night, Zach Bogosian 43. A 22nd-ranked kill on a club that finished four points clear of missing the playoffs is not a personnel problem. It is four men, and one of them cost the club a tenth of the season.