Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

38

Ryan Hartman

Minnesota Wild Right Wing

Ninety penalty minutes in fifty-nine games, and sixty-five points two seasons ago.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15CHI5000-1200080.08:17
2015-16CHI3011-1000030.09:14
2016-17CHI76191231+137010417011.212:46
2017-18CHI/NSH78112031+1721021298.513:04
2018-19NSH/PHI83121426+1740021458.313:07
2019-20MIN6991120+4691011147.912:15
2020-21MIN5171522033012749.515:04
2021-22MIN82343165+319510723914.218:11
2022-23MIN59152237+79012614910.116:18
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—506107126233+555055324103110.414:15

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 22 assists in 59 games — 37 points — with 90 penalty minutes and six game-winners. Plus-7, 16:18 a night, 149 shots at 10.1 per cent.

Six game-winning goals out of fifteen is a striking proportion and this book will not build anything on it; the sample is fifteen goals.

Ninety penalty minutes in fifty-nine games is a rate of a minor and a half a night, and it is his career pattern: 70, 72, 74, 69, 33, 95, 90 across seven full seasons.

52.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 72nd percentile, with his ice at 35-34 against an expectation of 37.77-33.91.

Nine seasons, 506 games, 233 points.

The Finesse Game

149 shots at a median of 30 feet, 28 per cent from inside twenty and 26 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 36 shots on goal, 2 goals. Inside forty: 100 shots, 13 goals, 13.00 per cent.

Thirty-four goals on 239 shots in 2021-22 at 14.2 per cent; fifteen on 149 at 10.1 in this one. The 2021-22 season is the outlier in a nine-year record and the honest baseline is fifteen to twenty.

91.4 mph at the 54th percentile, on nine slap shots.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 197, and ninety penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.3 mph, the 52nd percentile; bursts 0.6 a game, the 29th; 2.50 miles a game, the 42nd. None of the tracking is notable.

What is notable is the penalty rate, and it is the thing he is for. He finishes every check, plays through the whistle and answers when it comes back. Ninety minutes from a second-line forward is a lot of shifts spent in the wrong place, and Minnesota keeps signing him anyway.

The Intangibles

Thirtieth overall in 2013 to Chicago, four organisations, and a career that did not settle until Minnesota at twenty-five.

52.9 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 62nd percentile.

He missed twenty-three games. He is twenty-nine, on a club whose problem last season was finishing, and the thing he can most reliably supply is the thing the club least needs.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    3 of his 15 goals late or in overtime, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He finishes every check, plays through the whistle and answers when it comes back.”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “Ninety minutes from a second-line forward is a lot of shifts spent in the wrong place, and Minnesota keeps signing him anyway.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 819 minutes

Expected goals
52.7%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53%
79th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 34 against. Expected: 37.8 and 33.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
72nd

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 59 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
58th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.58 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.50 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.4 mph
75th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 819 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MIN took 50.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.7% — 2.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 819 minutes at five-on-five — 41st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mats Zuccarello53.0%52.4%51.1%
Jared Spurgeon53.5%52.2%52.4%
Kirill Kaprizov60.2%48.9%54.1%

53.0% together, 52.4% for him apart and 51.1% for Zuccarello apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

209 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 28% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.