Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

90

Marcus Johansson

Minnesota Wild Left Wing

Seven game-winning goals out of nineteen, eight penalty minutes in eighty games, and a sixth organisation.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11WSH69131427+21021210212.814:43
2011-12WSH80143246-581039015.616:48
2012-13WSH3461622+343014015.016:35
2013-14WSH8083644-2146011077.517:32
2014-15WSH82202747+61030113814.516:29
2015-16WSH74172946+121660713212.916:38
2016-17WSH82243458+251050512918.617:00
2017-18NJD295914-11141004211.915:59
2018-19NJD/BOS58131730-16820111511.315:56
2019-20BUF6092130-12201018710.317:09
2020-21MIN366814-1042034613.015:56
2021-22SEA/WSH6992029-2643021118.116:08
2022-23WSH/MIN80192746+3852713713.916:30
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—833163290453-5012040334127612.816:29

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

19 goals and 27 assists in 80 games — 46 points — with seven game-winners, two shorthanded goals and eight penalty minutes. Plus-3, 16:30 a night, 137 shots at 13.9 per cent, split between Washington and Minnesota.

Seven of his nineteen goals were game-winners. That is a striking proportion and it is also nineteen goals, which is not enough to build anything on.

Eight penalty minutes in eighty games is four minor penalties across a full season.

51.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 65th percentile, with his ice at 45-38 against an expectation of 43.70-40.61.

Thirteen seasons, 833 games, 453 points.

The Finesse Game

137 shots at a median of 25 feet, 43 per cent from inside twenty and 17 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 18 shots on goal and no goals. Inside forty: 111 shots, 19 goals, 17.12 per cent.

Eighteen long shots in eighty games is one of the most concentrated close-range distributions in this chapter, and 17.12 per cent from inside forty is the second-best rate among Minnesota forwards, behind Kaprizov.

19 tip-ins and 7 wrap-arounds out of 176 tracked attempts — he plays behind and beside the net rather than in front of it.

85.9 mph at the 16th percentile, on twelve slap shots. Soft, and the goals do not come from the shot.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 203, and eight penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.7 mph, the 75th percentile; bursts 2.3 a game, the 90th percentile at thirty-two years old; 2.68 miles a game, the 60th.

That burst figure is the most surprising number in his file. Very few players over thirty register at the 90th percentile, and he is one of the quickest men on the Minnesota roster by that measure.

He does not forecheck, does not finish checks and has never taken more than twenty penalty minutes in a season. The game is played entirely with the puck.

The Intangibles

Twenty-fourth overall in 2009 to Washington, and six organisations since: New Jersey, Boston, Buffalo, Minnesota, Seattle and Washington again.

49.8 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 45th percentile.

He is thirty-two, this is the second time he has arrived in Minnesota, and he has scored between 27 and 58 points in every full season of a thirteen-year career. That is a useful, entirely predictable player, and clubs keep acquiring him at the deadline for exactly that reason.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.10 penalty minutes a game over 80, 6th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He does not forecheck, does not finish checks and has never taken more than twenty penalty minutes in a season.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,013 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
65th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.8%
60th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 45 for, 38 against. Expected: 43.7 and 40.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
65th

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
80th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.33 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.68 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.9 mph
41st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with WSH · 740 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
MIN took 50.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
1,013 minutes at five-on-five — 59th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Lars Eller55.4%50.4%50.9%
Nick Jensen53.2%51.3%49.2%
Erik Gustafsson57.9%50.1%52.3%

55.4% together, 50.4% for him apart and 50.9% for Eller apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

168 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 44% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.