This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Jason Robertson
Dallas Stars Left Wing
Eighty points and the 96th percentile of chances, from a second-round pick with a career 14.86 per cent finishing rate.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | DAL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 12:19 |
| 2020-21 | DAL | 51 | 17 | 28 | 45 | +13 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 127 | 13.4 | 16:53 |
| 2021-22 | DAL | 74 | 41 | 38 | 79 | +16 | 22 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 220 | 18.6 | 18:07 |
| 2022-23 | DAL | 82 | 46 | 63 | 109 | +37 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 313 | 14.7 | 18:50 |
| 2023-24 | DAL | 82 | 29 | 51 | 80 | +19 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 231 | 12.6 | 18:19 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 292 | 133 | 181 | 314 | +85 | 80 | 36 | 0 | 25 | 895 | 14.9 | 18:06 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
All 82 games, 29 goals and 51 assists for 80 points with 9 on the power play, 18:19 a night and plus-19. He converted 12.55 per cent of 231 shots against a career 14.86 across 895.
He took 58.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,203 minutes, the 96th percentile, and his ice went 66-49 against an expectation of 54.01-38.99. Six goals of scoring missing and ten extra against — the worst gap on the club, on the man with the best chance share among its forwards. It is the single strangest set of numbers in this chapter and it says nothing bad about him.
The Finesse Game
He handles the puck in traffic and protects it at 6-3, and the whole game is played at a walking pace that somehow arrives first. He is not fast and it has never mattered.
One hundred and eighty-one assists in 292 career games is a first-line playmaking rate sitting on top of 133 goals, and 51 last season is the higher of his two numbers for the first time. He sees the far-side seam before the defence has closed it.
Two hundred and thirty-one shots from a median of 31 feet with 33 per cent from inside 20. A career 14.86 per cent across 895 shots is an elite finishing rate and the 12.55 last season is the outlier.
The Physical Game
He is 6-3 and 204 and wins the wall by leaning rather than by hitting. Twenty-two penalty minutes in 82 games is a low rate.
He does not finish checks and does not forecheck hard. The puck is retrieved by being in the right place when it arrives, which works and does not look like work.
The Intangibles
A second-round pick, 39th overall in 2017 out of Arcadia, California, who reached the National Hockey League at 21 and has 314 points in 292 games since. He is plus-85 across all of them.
He is 25 and the best forward on the club with the second-most points in the league, and almost nobody outside Texas would name him among the ten best wingers in hockey.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
31.6% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 94th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
- durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“He is 6-3 and 204 and wins the wall by leaning rather than by hitting.”
“One hundred and eighty-one assists in 292 career games is a first-line playmaking rate sitting on top of 133 goals, and 51 last season is the higher of his two numbers for the first time.”
“He does not finish checks and does not forecheck hard.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,203 minutes
- Expected goals
- 58.1%
- 96th pct
- Shot attempts
- 56%
- 92nd pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 66 for, 49 against. Expected: 54.0 and 39.0.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 34 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games
- Top speed
- 22.1 mph
- 44th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.49 a game
- Distance
- 2.90 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 93.4 mph
- 86th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.5
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 1203 minutes at five-on-five
- Roope Hintz74%
- Joe Pavelskioff the roster70%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- DAL took 54.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.1% — 3.5 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,203 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roope Hintz | 59.8% | 51.8% | 54.4% |
| Joe Pavelski | 55.1% | 64.8% | 49.6% |
| Thomas Harley | 61.1% | 56.2% | 52.3% |
59.8% together, 51.8% for him apart and 54.4% for Hintz apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
326 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 31% from beyond forty.