Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

91

Tyler Seguin

Dallas Stars Center

Three hundred and fifty-one goals and 3,170 shots across fourteen seasons, and a third-line role at 32.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11BOS74111122-4181001318.412:13
2011-12BOS81293867+343050724212.016:56
2012-13BOS48161632+23164021619.917:01
2013-14DAL80374784+1618110829412.619:21
2014-15DAL71374077-122130528013.219:33
2015-16DAL72334073+21670627811.919:27
2016-17DAL82264672-152211043018.618:28
2017-18DAL82403878+1243141633511.920:55
2018-19DAL82334780+17189083349.920:45
2019-20DAL69173350-2223062456.919:09
2020-21DAL320200000825.017:04
2021-22DAL81242549-213030221811.017:49
2022-23DAL76212950+32471318911.116:37
2023-24DAL68252752+102630315416.216:33
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—969351437788+7430591260317011.118:08

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Sixty-eight games, 25 goals and 27 assists for 52 points with 3 on the power play, 16:33 a night and plus-10. He converted 16.23 per cent of 154 shots against a career 11.07 across 3,170.

He took 52.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 904 minutes, the 72nd percentile, and his ice went 49-34 against an expectation of 44.03-39.70. Twenty-five goals on 154 shots at 32 is the best conversion rate of his career and it will not repeat.

The Finesse Game

The release is still the best thing about him — quick, disguised and from a median of 22 feet with 43 per cent of his attempts from inside 20. Three hundred and fifty-one goals on 3,170 career shots.

Four hundred and thirty-seven career assists. He was a genuine playmaking centre in his twenties and the puck now leaves his stick sooner, which is what happens when the legs stop buying an extra half-second.

The skating is good rather than what it was. He no longer beats a defenceman wide and the goals come from getting open instead.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 205 and plays a light physical game. Twenty-six penalty minutes in 68 games is a low rate and there is nothing hostile in it.

He does not forecheck aggressively and does not win pucks on the wall. On a club with Marchment, Benn and Johnston he is not asked to.

The Intangibles

Second overall in 2010, a Stanley Cup in Boston at 19, and then eleven seasons in Dallas and 969 games. He is plus-74 across all of them.

He is 32, playing sixteen minutes on the third line of a hundred-point club, and had 52 points. There is a version of this career that ended badly and this is not it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He does not forecheck aggressively and does not win pucks on the wall.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “The release is still the best thing about him — quick, disguised and from a median of 22 feet with 43 per cent of his attempts from inside 20.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 904 minutes

Expected goals
52.6%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.7%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 34 against. Expected: 44.0 and 39.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
31st
Numbers
72nd

The numbers rank him 41 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 68 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
19th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.72 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.8 mph
56th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 904 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
DAL took 54.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.6% — 2.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 904 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Matt Duchene52.3%54.6%51.7%
Mason Marchment53.2%50.1%54.9%
Ryan Suter54.1%51.7%53.2%

52.3% together, 54.6% for him apart and 51.7% for Duchene apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

214 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.