Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

7

Devon Toews

Colorado Avalanche Defense

The quiet half of the best pairing in hockey, and the reason the loud half can do what he does.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19NYI4851318+74102816.217:54
2019-20NYI6862228+1161011224.920:31
2020-21COL5392231+29162021217.424:46
2021-22COL66134457+52202031588.225:22
2022-23COL8074350+39261001654.225:06
2023-24COL82123850+28180021597.523:26
2024-25COL76103444+30261041387.224:35
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—47362216278+18612680149446.623:20

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 34 assists in 76 games for 44 points, plus-30, on 24:35 a night — the second-heaviest workload on the club and the highest plus-minus among its defencemen.

55.6 per cent at five-on-five, the 92nd percentile, over 1,505 minutes, which is more five-on-five hockey than anybody else on the roster played. His on-ice goals came in at 68-51 against an expected 69-55, so the run of play was considerably better than the scoreboard said.

The Finesse Game

The first pass is the skill, and it is quick and almost always right. He beats a forecheck by himself, which is the specific thing that lets Colorado start its offence before the other club is set, and it is why the pairing works: somebody has to be the man who does not carry.

He defends the rush by taking away time rather than space — closing early, angling to the wall, arriving as the puck does. 138 shots from a median of 53 feet is a man keeping pucks alive at the line rather than looking for his own offence, and 34 assists is what that produces.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 191, and stronger on the wall than the frame suggests. He does not get overpowered in the corners and does not go looking for contact either. 26 penalty minutes across a full season is a defenceman who ends plays with position.

The durability is real — 76 games, and he has been a 70-plus man every year since arriving.

The Intangibles

The most underrated defenceman in the league, which is a thing said about a lot of players and true about this one: he plays the hardest minutes on a club whose blue line is discussed entirely in terms of somebody else.

At 31 there is no obvious decline in any of it. The risk is structural rather than personal — he is the safety net under an attacking partner, and a club that ever has to split them will find out how much of Makar’s freedom was his.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    16.7% of his attempts in the slot, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:48 a game at five-on-five, 99th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    59% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 90th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The first pass is the skill, and it is quick and almost always right.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He beats a forecheck by himself, which is the specific thing that lets Colorado start its offence before the other club is set”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He defends the rush by taking away time rather than space — closing early, angling to the wall, arriving as the puck does.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “6-1 and 191, and stronger on the wall than the frame suggests. He does not get overpowered in the corners and does not go looking for contact either.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “26 penalty minutes across a full season is a defenceman who ends plays with position.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,505 minutes

Expected goals
55.6%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.1%
93rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 68 for, 51 against. Expected: 69.0 and 55.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
91st
Numbers
92nd

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 76 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
85th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.50 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.45 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.2 mph
74th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1505 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
COL took 53.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.6% — 2.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,505 minutes at five-on-five — 99th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cale Makar56.9%52.1%59.2%
Nathan MacKinnon60.1%48.3%57.4%
Artturi Lehkonen61.1%50.9%51.1%

56.9% together, 52.1% for him apart and 59.2% for Makar apart. He was worse away from Makar, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Makar did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

210 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 45 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 67% from beyond forty.