Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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20

Ross Colton

Colorado Avalanche Center

16 goals in 61 games from 22 feet out, and a 54.8 per cent chance share on the third line.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21TBL309312+3160044619.610:34
2021-22TBL79221739+42410415913.812:48
2022-23TBL81161632-85040315310.512:21
2023-24COL80172340-86130214611.613:43
2024-25COL61161329-11850312512.814:25
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—3318072152-101691301662912.713:00

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

16 goals and 13 assists in 61 games for 29 points, minus-1, on 14:25 a night, with 5 on the power play.

54.0 per cent at five-on-five, the 85th percentile, and on-ice goals of 28-25 against an expected 32-27 — the best goal differential per minute on the club. 125 shots from a median of 22 feet with 45 per cent inside 20.

The Finesse Game

A shooter who has organised his entire game around getting to the places shooters score from. Nearly half his attempts come from inside 20 feet, and at 12.8 per cent he converts them at a rate that has been stable for four seasons.

He is not a playmaker — 13 assists in 61 games — and he does not carry a line. What he does is arrive, and the difference between him and the players below him on the depth chart is that he arrives at the net rather than near it.

The Physical Game

6 feet and 194, and he plays a hard, straight, forechecking game that is exactly suited to a third line. He finishes checks, he is willing on the wall, and he takes the punishment that comes with living at the net front.

18 penalty minutes in 61 games is disciplined for the style. The games missed are the concern — he has now had two seasons in a row cut short.

The Intangibles

He scored a Cup-winning goal at 25 and has never played as though it settled anything. Coaches use him on the kill, in the last minute, and against real lines.

At 29 he is at his ceiling and it is a useful one: a 20-goal third-line centre who defends. The contract runs long enough that the last years of it will be paying for a version of this player who no longer gets to those spots.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “the difference between him and the players below him on the depth chart is that he arrives at the net rather than near it”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is not a playmaker — 13 assists in 61 games — and he does not carry a line.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “he plays a hard, straight, forechecking game that is exactly suited to a third line”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He finishes checks, he is willing on the wall, and he takes the punishment that comes with living at the net front.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “Coaches use him on the kill, in the last minute, and against real lines.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “a 20-goal third-line centre who defends”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 768 minutes

Expected goals
54%
85th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.3%
85th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 25 against. Expected: 32.0 and 27.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
85th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 61 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
45th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
1.74 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.40 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.7 mph
57th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 768 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
COL took 53.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.0% — 0.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 768 minutes at five-on-five — 34th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Samuel Girard59.9%50.0%50.7%
Sam Malinski43.3%58.9%51.8%
Casey Mittelstadt42.3%59.4%44.7%

59.9% together, 50.0% for him apart and 50.7% for Girard apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

196 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.