Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

11

Casey Mittelstadt

Boston Bruins Center

40 points, a minus-29, and a 46.1 per cent chance share — the second club in two years to decide he was not the centre they wanted.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18BUF6145+12100911.114:01
2018-19BUF77121325-191030111810.213:27
2019-20BUF31459-521013411.812:46
2020-21BUF41101222-10103126116.415:53
2021-22BUF4061319-144101797.616:07
2022-23BUF82154459-82241213511.115:44
2023-24BUF/COL80183957+103230112714.217:44
2024-25COL/BOS81152540-292430310514.317:04
2025-26 so far
Career43881155236-741061921166812.115:45

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 25 assists in 81 games for 40 points, minus-29, on 17:04 a night between Colorado and Boston.

46.1 per cent at five-on-five, the 19th percentile. His on-ice goals were 53-42 against an expected 39-45, which is the strangest line in this chapter: the chances went badly against him and the goals went well for him, and the plus-minus went badly anyway because most of the damage came shorthanded and on a very poor Boston team.

The Finesse Game

The hands and the vision are real. He plays a slow, possession-based game, holds the puck below the goal line, and 25 assists in this environment is a genuine total. 44 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet.

What he has never had is pace of decision at NHL speed. He holds it a beat too long, and against a good forecheck that turns into a turnover in a dangerous place — which is how a skilled centre ends up in the 19th percentile.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 205, and he does not play to the size. He is not a forechecker, he does not win pucks on the wall, and he can be separated from possession by a determined defenceman.

24 penalty minutes over 81 games. Durable, and that is not in question.

The Intangibles

The 8th overall pick, a breakout at 25, and then two clubs inside a year deciding he was not the answer at centre. That is a difficult thing for a player to carry.

He is 26 and there is a genuine second-line centre in the skill set. The evidence of two seasons is that he needs wingers who win pucks and a system that does not ask him to defend the middle of the ice. Boston is the third club that will try.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,108 minutes

Expected goals
46.1%
20th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.8%
40th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 42 against. Expected: 38.5 and 45.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
41st
Numbers
20th

The report ranks him 21 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with COL · 903 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
BOS took 48.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.1% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
1,108 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Samuel Girard49.1%44.3%55.3%
Sam Malinski46.6%45.9%51.2%
Ross Colton45.5%46.2%59.0%

49.1% together, 44.3% for him apart and 55.3% for Girard apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Girard and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

145 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.