This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →
Jakob Pelletier
Calgary Flames Left Wing
Five-foot-ten, 172 pounds, twenty-four games, and the fourth percentile in shot velocity.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | CGY | 24 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 6.3 | 14:11 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 24 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 6.3 | 14:11 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
3 goals and 4 assists in 24 games — 7 points at 14:11 a night, minus-5, with 2 power-play goals on 48 shots, converting at 6.25 per cent, and 2 penalty minutes.
59.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 290 minutes, the 97th percentile — on 290 minutes, which is far too few to mean anything, and on a club where almost every forward was above 50.
His ice went 8-10 against an expectation of 15.75-10.78, so nearly eight goals of scoring went missing in a quarter of a season.
The Finesse Game
48 attempts at a median of 21 feet with 48 per cent from inside 20, off a shot measured at 81.5 mph — the 4th percentile in the league, though a twenty-two-year-old’s velocity is a number that moves.
The junior record is where the evidence is: he was a point-a-game player in the QMJHL and an American League scorer before he arrived. 7 points in 24 NHL games says nothing either way.
The Physical Game
5-10 and 172, which is small enough to be the central question, and 2 penalty minutes in 24 games says nothing about whether he can survive contact because he did not seek any.
The skating measures adequately — 22.2 mph at the 47th percentile with 1.7 bursts a game at the 78th — and for a forward this light that is probably not enough on its own. Whether he has the lateral quickness a 172-pound winger needs is not something the tracking reports, and twenty-four games is not enough to have seen it either.
The Intangibles
Twenty-sixth overall in 2019, and the club’s best forward prospect.
He is 22. Calgary is a club with an ageing, expensive top six and almost nothing behind it, which means he will get a chance whether or not he has earned one — and on the evidence available this book cannot tell you whether he is ready, only that the club has no better option to try.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 290 minutes
- Expected goals
- 59.4%
- 97th pct
- Shot attempts
- 62.3%
- 100th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 8 for, 10 against. Expected: 15.8 and 10.8.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 68 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 120 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 290 minutes at five-on-five
- Nazem Kadri65%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.4% — 4.2 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- 290 minutes at five-on-five — 5th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri | 59.4% | 59.4% | 52.6% |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 60.4% | 58.0% | 55.8% |
| Noah Hanifin | 60.6% | 58.6% | 54.1% |
59.4% together, 59.4% for him apart and 52.6% for Kadri apart. Kadri was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Kadri than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
65 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 8 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.