This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Jonathan Huberdeau

A hundred and fifteen points in Florida, fifty-five in Calgary, and the 23rd percentile in top speed.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2012-13	FLA	48	14	17	31	-15	18	2	0	1	112	12.5	16:56
2013-14	FLA	69	9	19	28	-5	37	2	0	1	108	8.3	15:40
2014-15	FLA	79	15	39	54	+10	38	0	0	0	169	8.9	16:45
2015-16	FLA	76	20	39	59	+17	43	4	1	2	174	11.5	18:09
2016-17	FLA	31	10	16	26	-2	13	3	0	2	86	11.6	17:55
2017-18	FLA	82	27	42	69	-2	32	7	0	4	204	13.2	19:12
2018-19	FLA	82	30	62	92	-14	40	11	0	5	226	13.3	18:51
2019-20	FLA	69	23	55	78	+5	30	5	0	3	152	15.1	18:46
2020-21	FLA	55	20	41	61	+12	36	5	0	1	122	16.4	18:25
2021-22	FLA	80	30	85	115	+35	54	5	3	7	222	13.5	19:25
2022-23	CGY	79	15	40	55	+2	36	4	0	1	126	11.9	16:52
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	750	213	455	668	+43	377	48	4	27	1701	12.5	17:57

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 40 assists in 79 games — 55 points at 16:52 a night, plus-2, with 4 power-play goals on 126 shots, converting at 11.9 per cent, and 36 penalty minutes.

One hundred and fifteen points the season before. Fifty-five in this one. A sixty-point fall is not a slump and it is not entirely explicable by the change of club, though some of it is: Florida’s 2021-22 team scored 340 goals and this one scored 260.

56.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,046 minutes, the 92nd percentile — the underlying number stayed excellent while the production collapsed. His ice went 50-39 against an expectation of 48.72-37.42, which is close to the chances.

The Finesse Game

126 attempts at a median of 25 feet, 43 per cent from inside 20, off a shot measured at 85.0 mph — the 11th percentile in the league.

455 career assists against 213 goals is one of the most lopsided ratios of any high-scoring forward of his generation. The passing is the whole game and it is genuinely elite: he holds the puck below the goal line and waits, and the pass arrives where a man is going to be. 126 shots in 79 games is the volume of somebody who does not want to shoot.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 200, and there is no physical game — 377 penalty minutes in 750 games and he avoids contact by design.

The tracking is unkind and it may be the most important thing in this file: 21.8 mph top end is the 23rd percentile, and 0.4 bursts over twenty miles an hour a game is the 16th. He was never a fast player and he is now measurably a slow one at thirty. A forward whose game is built on holding the puck until a seam opens needs the half-step that buys the delay, and the measurement says the half-step is going.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2011, eleven seasons, 750 games and 668 points, and he arrived here in the Matthew Tkachuk trade — which Calgary lost badly enough in its first year to make the eight-year extension signed alongside it the most discussed contract in the league.

He is 30. The club’s whole season depends on whether the 55 was the adjustment or the beginning, and the honest answer is that nothing in the underlying numbers is broken and everything in the tracking says the clock has started.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
79 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes
“he holds the puck below the goal line and waits, and the pass arrives where a man is going to be”
punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally
“there is no physical game — 377 penalty minutes in 750 games and he avoids contact by design”
edgeshe lacks it· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone
“A forward whose game is built on holding the puck until a seam opens needs the half-step that buys the delay, and the measurement says the half-step is going.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,046 minutes

Expected goals: 56.6%; 92nd pct
Shot attempts: 56.5%; 94th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 39 against. Expected: 48.7 and 37.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

50th

Numbers

92nd

The numbers rank him 42 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 120 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1046 minutes at five-on-five

Nazem Kadri50%
Mikael Backlund27%
Tyler Toffolinow NJD21%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.6% — 1.4 above the club he did it on.
The role: Third line, 1,046 minutes at five-on-five — 63rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Nazem Kadri	55.8%	57.4%	52.0%
Rasmus Andersson	55.2%	57.4%	52.2%
Noah Hanifin	54.4%	57.8%	54.7%

55.8% together, 57.4% for him apart and 52.0% for Kadri apart. Kadri was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Kadri than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

188 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.