This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Noah Hanifin
Calgary Flames Defense
The 98th percentile in top speed, twenty-two minutes a night, and thirty-eight points.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | CAR | 79 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -14 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 3.3 | 17:54 |
| 2016-17 | CAR | 81 | 4 | 25 | 29 | -19 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 108 | 3.7 | 17:55 |
| 2017-18 | CAR | 79 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -20 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 165 | 6.1 | 18:52 |
| 2018-19 | CGY | 80 | 5 | 28 | 33 | +18 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 116 | 4.3 | 20:46 |
| 2019-20 | CGY | 70 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -12 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 3.8 | 21:10 |
| 2020-21 | CGY | 47 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 89 | 4.5 | 20:01 |
| 2021-22 | CGY | 81 | 10 | 38 | 48 | +27 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 5.3 | 21:18 |
| 2022-23 | CGY | 81 | 7 | 31 | 38 | +2 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 4.0 | 22:39 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 598 | 49 | 190 | 239 | -20 | 163 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1097 | 4.5 | 20:04 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
7 goals and 31 assists in 81 games — 38 points at 22:39 a night, plus-2, on 176 shots and 33 penalty minutes.
54.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,451 minutes, the 85th percentile. His ice went 68-65 against an expectation of 70.32-58.41 — seven fewer goals scored than the chances predicted and seven more conceded, which is a fourteen-goal swing against him and is the club’s finishing and goaltending in a single line.
The Finesse Game
176 attempts at a median of 50 feet, 69 per cent from beyond 40, converting at just 3.98 per cent off a 95.4 mph shot at the 80th percentile — the same hard-shot-from-the-blue-line arithmetic this edition keeps recording.
190 career assists in 598 games. The value with the puck is in leaving the zone rather than in the point shot: he takes it himself, he beats the first forechecker, and the club’s transition game is built around him and Andersson.
The Physical Game
6-3 and 206, and the skating is genuinely elite: 23.7 mph top end is the 98th percentile in the league and 3.43 miles a game is the 96th. Very few defencemen combine that size with that speed, and it is the reason he can defend a rush by simply skating with it.
163 penalty minutes in 598 games says he is not a physical defenceman. He closes gaps with feet rather than with contact, which works against speed and less well against weight in front of his own net.
The Intangibles
Fifth overall in 2015 to Carolina, and he arrived in the Dougie Hamilton trade alongside Lindholm — the same deal, and Calgary has had eight seasons of value from it.
He is 26 and, like Lindholm and Tanev, approaching the end of his contract on a club that has just missed the playoffs. Three top-four defencemen and a first-line centre reaching free agency in the same window is not a roster problem, it is an existential one, and nothing about last season gave Calgary a reason to be confident about any of it.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
81 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“he takes it himself, he beats the first forechecker, and the club's transition game is built around him and Andersson”
“163 penalty minutes in 598 games says he is not a physical defenceman”
“He closes gaps with feet rather than with contact, which works against speed and less well against weight in front of his own net.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,451 minutes
- Expected goals
- 54.6%
- 85th pct
- Shot attempts
- 53.5%
- 82nd pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 68 for, 65 against. Expected: 70.3 and 58.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 120 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 1451 minutes at five-on-five
- Chris Tanev22%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.6% — 0.6 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First pair, 1,451 minutes at five-on-five — 96th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson | 52.6% | 59.1% | 54.0% |
| Blake Coleman | 58.9% | 52.8% | 58.2% |
| Andrew Mangiapane | 56.7% | 53.7% | 57.4% |
52.6% together, 59.1% for him apart and 54.0% for Andersson apart. He was better away from Andersson, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Andersson.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
254 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.