This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Andrew Mangiapane

A sixth-round pick, 5-10, 95 goals in 342 games, and the 93rd percentile in five-on-five share.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2017-18	CGY	10	0	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	7	0.0	8:56
2018-19	CGY	44	8	5	13	+11	12	0	0	1	65	12.3	10:33
2019-20	CGY	68	17	15	32	+4	18	0	0	2	109	15.6	13:42
2020-21	CGY	56	18	14	32	+1	24	2	1	4	91	19.8	16:40
2021-22	CGY	82	35	20	55	+20	38	8	2	8	185	18.9	15:44
2022-23	CGY	82	17	26	43	+12	40	2	0	1	182	9.3	16:49
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	342	95	80	175	+45	134	12	3	16	639	14.9	14:53

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

17 goals and 26 assists in 82 games — 43 points at 16:49 a night, plus-12, with 2 power-play goals on 182 shots, converting at 9.34 per cent, and 40 penalty minutes.

57.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,105 minutes, the 93rd percentile. His ice went 58-44 against an expectation of 59.88-44.98, so the result matched the chances — which is the point about this club: the chances were excellent everywhere and the goals did not follow.

It is down from 35 goals two seasons ago.

The Finesse Game

182 attempts at a median of 21 feet, 46 per cent from inside 20 and only 9 per cent from beyond 40 — one of the most concentrated shot charts of any winger here — off a 94.4 mph shot at the 75th percentile.

He shoots hard from close range, which is the combination that actually scores, and 95 goals in 342 games says it works. Nine per cent conversion on that shot chart is unlucky rather than deserved, and the 35-goal season is the better guide to the finishing than this one.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 183, and he plays a genuinely heavy game for the size — he forechecks first, he wins pucks below the goal line against much larger men, and 134 penalty minutes in 342 games is the record of somebody involved in everything.

The skating is good at 22.4 mph, the 55th percentile, with 1.5 bursts a game at the 74th. He is strong on his skates rather than fast, and the puck-protection at his size is the unusual skill.

The Intangibles

A hundred and sixty-sixth overall in 2015, a sixth-round pick, and 95 NHL goals — an outstanding piece of drafting.

He is 27. He is the kind of player who becomes expensive after a 35-goal season and looks overpaid after a 17-goal one, and the underlying numbers say the club should hold rather than sell.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck
“he forechecks first, he wins pucks below the goal line against much larger men”
wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line
“he forechecks first, he wins pucks below the goal line against much larger men”
hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand
“He is strong on his skates rather than fast, and the puck-protection at his size is the unusual skill.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,105 minutes

Expected goals: 57.1%; 93rd pct
Shot attempts: 59%; 97th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 58 for, 44 against. Expected: 59.9 and 45.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

81st

Numbers

93rd

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 120 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1105 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.1% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role: First line, 1,105 minutes at five-on-five — 71st percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Mikael Backlund	62.5%	51.7%	58.1%
Blake Coleman	63.6%	52.3%	54.1%
MacKenzie Weegar	57.5%	56.9%	58.8%

62.5% together, 51.7% for him apart and 58.1% for Backlund apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

249 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.