This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

MacKenzie Weegar

The 96th percentile in five-on-five share, four goals on 160 shots, and a seventh-round pick who plays twenty-one minutes.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2016-17	FLA	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	3	0.0	17:27
2017-18	FLA	60	2	6	8	+5	32	0	0	0	58	3.5	14:34
2018-19	FLA	64	4	11	15	-3	64	0	0	2	79	5.1	16:58
2019-20	FLA	45	7	11	18	+6	33	0	0	1	77	9.1	20:07
2020-21	FLA	54	6	30	36	+29	45	0	0	1	101	5.9	22:07
2021-22	FLA	80	8	36	44	+40	81	1	1	2	203	3.9	23:22
2022-23	CGY	81	4	27	31	+15	43	0	0	1	160	2.5	21:06
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	387	31	121	152	+92	302	1	1	7	681	4.5	19:52

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 27 assists in 81 games — 31 points at 21:06 a night, plus-15, on 160 shots and 43 penalty minutes.

58.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,465 minutes, the 96th percentile. His ice went 62-48 against an expectation of 66.76-47.62 — five goals of scoring missing, which is the finishing problem that cost this club its season.

It was a considerable step down in points from 44 in Florida the year before.

The Finesse Game

160 attempts at a median of 48 feet, 72 per cent from beyond 40 and 7 per cent from inside 20, converting at 2.5 per cent off a 94.5 mph shot.

Four goals on 160 shots. 31 goals in 387 career games. The point shot is a volume exercise that generates rebounds and very little else, and the value is entirely in the 121 career assists and the defending.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 206, and 302 penalty minutes in 387 games says he plays hard — he finishes checks, he is willing along the wall, and he does not back out of anything.

The skating is decent at 21.8 mph, the 23rd percentile in top speed, with 3.20 miles a game at the 91st. The pattern by now is familiar: on this blue line only Hanifin has real straight-line speed, and the rest of them cover enormous distance without it.

The Intangibles

Two hundred and sixth overall in 2013, a seventh-round pick who has played 387 NHL games and signed an eight-year contract — one of the best late-round outcomes of the decade.

He is 29. He arrived in the Tkachuk trade with Huberdeau and has been the better half of it by a wide margin, which almost nobody predicted and the underlying numbers state plainly.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
81 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally
“he finishes checks, he is willing along the wall, and he does not back out of anything”
wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line
“he finishes checks, he is willing along the wall, and he does not back out of anything”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,465 minutes

Expected goals: 58.4%; 96th pct
Shot attempts: 61.5%; 99th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 62 for, 48 against. Expected: 66.8 and 47.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

87th

Numbers

96th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 99 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1465 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.4% — 3.2 above the club he did it on.
The role: Second pair, 1,465 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Chris Tanev	58.8%	58.1%	64.0%
Nikita Zadorov	58.0%	58.6%	52.5%
Mikael Backlund	60.6%	57.3%	60.5%

58.8% together, 58.1% for him apart and 64.0% for Tanev apart. Tanev was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

221 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 50 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.