Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

61

Mark Stone

Vegas Golden Knights Right Wing

The 94th percentile of chance share, forty-three games, and a top speed in the third percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13OTT4000-1200030.010:00
2013-14OTT19448+541003611.114:29
2014-15OTT80263864+211451615716.617:01
2015-16OTT75233861-43851115115.220:07
2016-17OTT71223254+122560513416.418:34
2017-18OTT58204262+91011313215.220:40
2018-19OTT/VGK77334073+172761419916.619:53
2019-20VGK65214263+152760316812.519:25
2020-21VGK55214061+26286189821.419:04
2021-22VGK3792130+783027112.718:21
2022-23VGK43172138+111032111315.019:23
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—584196318514+11819342733126215.518:56

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

17 goals and 21 assists in 43 games — 38 points — at 19:23 a night. Plus-11, 113 shots at 15.0 per cent, three on the power play, two shorthanded, 10 penalty minutes.

Forty-three games. He has played more than sixty twice in five seasons.

57.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 94th percentile — the best of any forward on this roster — across 630 minutes, with his ice at 35-23 against an expectation of 30.20-22.26.

He started 55.1 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 73rd percentile.

Six hundred and thirty minutes is half a season, and a 94th-percentile share out of it is still the largest single piece of evidence about him in this edition.

The Finesse Game

113 shots at a median of 16 feet, with 60 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty and 9 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside twenty feet: 70 shots on goal and 15 goals — 21.43 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 30 shots and three goals, 10.00 against a league rate of 11.05. Beyond forty: 11 shots and no goals.

Seventy of his hundred and eleven shots on goal came from inside twenty feet, which is where a man with a career 15.5 per cent shooting percentage across 584 games should be shooting from.

That career figure is the number to sit with. A 15.5 per cent rate over eleven seasons and 1,262 shots is not luck; it is a man who does not shoot until he is close.

152 tracked attempts, 79 of them wrist shots, 23 tip-ins and five slap. 90.2 mph at the 44th percentile — an ordinary shot, converted at an extraordinary rate because of where he takes it.

He takes the puck off other people’s sticks — the phrase every account of him uses, and the closest this project can come to measuring it is a 94th-percentile chance share on a club whose team share was fifteenth.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 210 pounds, with 10 penalty minutes in 43 games and 193 in 584 career games.

A top speed of 21.0 mph — the 3rd percentile — and 0.2 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 7th. He covers 2.88 miles a game, the 73rd.

Read that carefully, because it is the most interesting measurement in this chapter. One of the best two-way wingers of his generation, on the largest chance share on his club, is in the bottom three per cent of the league for top speed and effectively never reaches twenty miles an hour — and still covers more ground than three-quarters of it.

Everything he does is done early rather than fast. He reads a play before it develops and puts his stick where the puck is going, and 318 career assists and seven shorthanded goals are the record of it.

He is not fast and, at thirty-one having missed half of two seasons, he is not going to be. The 3rd-percentile figure is partly the injuries and partly him, and this book cannot separate the two.

He is hard to move off a puck along the wall at 6-3, and the strength has never been the question.

The Intangibles

A hundred and seventy-eighth overall in 2010, the sixth round, eleven seasons, 584 games, 514 points across Ottawa and Vegas, the captaincy, and a Stanley Cup.

196 goals and 318 assists at a career 15.5 per cent, and a plus-118.

He is thirty-one, on a long contract, and has played more than sixty games twice in five seasons.

A sixth-round pick with five hundred points, a captaincy and a Cup is one of the great draft-value stories in this book. What the file cannot promise is availability: the chance share says he is among the best players in the league when he is on the ice, and the games-played column says that is about half the time.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    70.7% of his attempts in the slot, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    57.6% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 49.8% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.8, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:39 a game at five-on-five, 90th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He reads a play before it develops and puts his stick where the puck is going, and 318 career assists and seven shorthanded goals are the record of it.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is hard to move off a puck along the wall at 6-3, and the strength has never been the question.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “**A hundred and seventy-eighth overall in 2010**, the sixth round, eleven seasons, 584 games, 514 points across Ottawa and Vegas, the captaincy, and **a Stanley Cup**.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 630 minutes

Expected goals
57.6%
95th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.7%
77th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 23 against. Expected: 30.2 and 22.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
94th
Numbers
95th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 43 games

Top speed
21.0 mph
11th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.23 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.88 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.2 mph
67th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 630 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
VGK took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.6% — 6.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 630 minutes at five-on-five — 25th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jack Eichel60.4%54.9%48.7%
Brayden McNabb61.4%55.3%50.6%
Alex Pietrangelo61.9%55.0%50.0%

60.4% together, 54.9% for him apart and 48.7% for Eichel apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

150 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 61% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.