Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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2

Jake Christiansen

Columbus Blue Jackets Defense

A 42.9 per cent chance share — the 8th percentile — across 793 minutes, and 8 points to go with it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22CBJ8101+10000425.09:46
2022-23CBJ24044-74000250.015:13
2023-24CBJ12022-5200070.013:13
2024-25CBJ68178+611000581.712:32
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—11221315-517000942.112:59

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 7 assists in 68 games for 8 points, plus-6, on 12:32 a night.

43.1 per cent at five-on-five, the 10th percentile. His on-ice goals were 39-31 against an expected 27-36, which means 12 goals of finishing luck at one end turned a disastrous chance share into a plus-6. The rating is a fiction.

The Finesse Game

Very little. 58 shots in 68 games with 84 per cent of them from beyond 40 feet and 1 per cent from inside 20 — the most perimeter shot chart on the roster — and 1 goal.

The first pass is adequate when he is not pressured. 7 assists in 68 games is a fair description of the offensive contribution.

The Physical Game

6 feet and 199, and neither heavy nor especially willing. He does not clear a net front and loses more board battles than he wins.

11 penalty minutes over 68 games is disciplined, and on a defenceman with an 8th-percentile share that is not a virtue so much as an absence.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, four American League seasons, and 68 NHL games at 26 on a club with a thin blue line.

The honest projection is a seventh defenceman. A team that missed the playoffs by 2 points giving 793 minutes to an 8th-percentile share is part of the explanation for the 2 points.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    83.9% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 92nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.16 penalty minutes a game over 68, 5th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, four American League seasons, and 68 NHL games at 26 on a club with a thin blue line.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He does not clear a net front and loses more board battles than he wins.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not clear a net front and loses more board battles than he wins.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “6 feet and 199, and neither heavy nor especially willing.”

  • transitionpresent and ordinary· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “The first pass is adequate when he is not pressured.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 793 minutes

Expected goals
43.1%
10th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.9%
8th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 31 against. Expected: 27.1 and 35.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
2nd
Numbers
10th

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 68 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
25th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.16 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.84 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.6 mph
32nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 793 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
CBJ took 48.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.1% — 5.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 793 minutes at five-on-five — 35th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Damon Severson48.5%37.9%50.1%
Adam Fantilli34.5%46.5%47.5%
Mathieu Olivier46.2%42.1%46.7%

48.5% together, 37.9% for him apart and 50.1% for Severson apart. He was worse away from Severson, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Severson did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

87 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 64 feet. 1% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 84% from beyond forty.